Mar 27, 2023 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Mon Mar 27 06:51:44 UTC 2023 (20230327 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20230327 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20230327 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 270651

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0151 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023

   Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.

   ...Synopsis...

   An upper ridge will overspread the Plains on Wednesday ahead of a
   closed upper low/trough moving southeast across CA into the western
   Great Basin. At the surface, high pressure will dominate across the
   Midwest and southern U.S., where a dearth of boundary-layer moisture
   will result in mostly stable conditions. A surface cold front will
   move across southern FL during the day, and a few thunderstorms are
   possible. Additional thunderstorms are expected across parts of CA
   where steepening midlevel lapse rates will support sufficient
   instability for isolated lightning flashes. Increasing southerly
   low-level flow across the southern Plains late in the period will
   begin to transport Gulf moisture northward across southern/central
   TX. Isolated, elevated thunderstorms will be possible after 00z in
   this warm advection regime. Overall severe potential is expected to
   remain low across the U.S. on Wednesday.

   ..Leitman.. 03/27/2023

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z