Nov 3, 2018 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sat Nov 3 07:33:02 UTC 2018 (20181103 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20181103 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 86,130 7,204,463 Memphis, TN...Nashville, TN...Huntsville, AL...Clarksville, TN...Murfreesboro, TN...
SLIGHT 166,780 13,213,216 Louisville, KY...Lexington-Fayette, KY...Birmingham, AL...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...
MARGINAL 133,820 17,634,046 Indianapolis, IN...New Orleans, LA...Atlanta, GA...Cincinnati, OH...Baton Rouge, LA...
Probabilistic Graphic
20181103 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 58,012 3,951,079 Memphis, TN...Jackson, TN...Decatur, AL...Bartlett, TN...Southaven, MS...
30 % 86,299 7,210,879 Memphis, TN...Nashville, TN...Huntsville, AL...Clarksville, TN...Murfreesboro, TN...
15 % 167,956 13,271,580 Louisville, KY...Lexington-Fayette, KY...Birmingham, AL...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...
5 % 132,751 17,598,813 Indianapolis, IN...New Orleans, LA...Atlanta, GA...Cincinnati, OH...Baton Rouge, LA...
   SPC AC 030733

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0233 AM CDT Sat Nov 03 2018

   Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION
   OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Numerous severe storms with potential for damaging wind and
   tornadoes are expected Monday evening into the overnight from a
   portion of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee and Ohio
   Valleys.

   Primary change to previous outlook for Monday has been to expand the
   severe risk areas farther north and east based on latest trends in
   model guidance.

   Potential still exists for significant severe weather to transpire
   Monday evening and overnight, mainly from the lower MS Valley into
   the Tennessee Valley regions. Though the NAM and GFS are slightly
   less amplified with approaching upper trough compared to the ECMWF,
   models have demonstrated reasonably good consistency. Cyclogenesis
   should commence by Monday evening over the lower MS Valley in
   response to ascent within exit region of an approaching, intense jet
   streak within base of an amplifying shortwave trough. The low is
   forecast to deepen as it lifts northeast into the OH Valley
   overnight with trailing cold front advancing through the TN and
   lower MS valley regions. Richer low-level moisture residing over the
   northern Gulf will advect rapidly northward through the warm sector
   in response to the strengthening low-level jet, contributing to
   destabilization with modest instability (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE).
   Mixed storm modes including a squall line and supercells are likely
   to develop along and ahead of advancing cold front Monday afternoon
   initially over the lower MS Valley, and continuing east into the TN
   Valley and Southeast States Monday night. Impressive wind profiles
   with large hodographs and an intense upper jet will promote a threat
   for mainly damaging wind and tornadoes, though some hail will also
   be possible.

   ..Dial.. 11/03/2018

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z