Jul 21, 2018 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sat Jul 21 07:04:13 UTC 2018 (20180721 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20180721 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 20,161 6,691,575 Orlando, FL...Port St. Lucie, FL...Lakeland, FL...Palm Bay, FL...Deltona, FL...
Probabilistic Graphic
20180721 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 20,081 6,649,459 Orlando, FL...Port St. Lucie, FL...West Palm Beach, FL...Lakeland, FL...Palm Bay, FL...
   SPC AC 210704

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0204 AM CDT Sat Jul 21 2018

   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ACROSS
   INTERIOR AND ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong thunderstorms may impact interior and Atlantic coastal areas
   of the Florida Peninsula Monday, accompanied by some risk for severe
   weather.

   ...Discussion...
   South of the far northern tier of the western into central U.S.,
   subtropical ridging appears likely to remain prominent through this
   period, with the highest mid-level heights becoming centered near
   the Arizona/New Mexico border.  Mid/upper ridging also appears
   likely to remain strong across much of the Northeast.  The ridging
   may begin to pinch off the northern portion of lingering troughing
   east of the Mississippi Valley, within an elongated mid-level
   cyclonic circulation within the troughing redeveloping southward
   across the Tennessee Valley into the eastern Gulf states. 

   Modest cyclonic mid-level flow on the southeastern periphery of this
   circulation may enhance diurnal thunderstorm development across
   interior and Atlantic coastal areas of the Florida Peninsula, where
   moderately large CAPE may develop with insolation by midday Monday. 
   This activity may pose some severe weather potential, mostly in the
   form of potentially damaging wind gusts, before diminishing late
   Monday afternoon or evening.

   Otherwise, generally weak to modest instability and weak/uncertain
   synoptic forcing currently seems likely to minimize severe weather
   potential elsewhere across the nation.

   ..Kerr.. 07/21/2018

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z