Aug 8, 2020 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sat Aug 8 06:48:35 UTC 2020 (20200808 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20200808 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 153,809 21,276,172 Chicago, IL...Kansas City, MO...Fort Wayne, IN...Grand Rapids, MI...Aurora, IL...
Probabilistic Graphic
20200808 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 153,827 21,305,157 Chicago, IL...Kansas City, MO...Fort Wayne, IN...Grand Rapids, MI...Aurora, IL...
   SPC AC 080648

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0148 AM CDT Sat Aug 08 2020

   Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
   REGION...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Marginally severe thunderstorms are expected on Monday from parts of
   the central Plains east-northeastward into the southern Great Lakes.
   Strong wind gust and hail will be the primary threats.

   ...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley/Mid to Upper Mississippi
   Valley/Southern Great Lakes...
   An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the
   central and northern Plains on Monday as a cold front advances
   south-southeastward into the central Plains and lower to mid
   Mississippi Valley. Moderate to strong instability is expected to
   develop by afternoon along and to the south of the front where
   surface dewpoints should be in the upper 60s and lower 70s F.
   Although large-scale ascent along the front should remain relatively
   weak, surface heating and low-level convergence along the front will
   help initiate thunderstorms along parts of the front during the mid
   to late afternoon. There is some uncertainty as to the location of
   the front by late afternoon but model consensus places the boundary
   from northern Kansas east-northeastward into northern Illinois.
   Convection that initiates along the front will move
   east-southeastward into the stronger instability and may have a
   marginal wind damage threat. Hail may also occur with the stronger
   updrafts.

   ..Broyles.. 08/08/2020

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z