SPC AC 130759
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 AM CST Sat Mar 13 2021
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
Appreciable severe risk is not evident at this time across the U.S.
An upper low initially over the central Plains is forecast to lift
northeastward with time, becoming increasingly weak/sheared through
the period. Farther west, a second low entering northern
California/western Oregon early, is expected to pivot southeastward
across the Great Basin toward the Desert Southwest with time.
At the surface, a weak west-to-east baroclinic zone is forecast to
evolve with time, from Oklahoma eastward into the Mid South.
A band of generally weak convection should be crossing western
portions of Tennessee and Kentucky/Mississippi/eastern Louisiana and
vicinity early in the day, with some embedded/occasional lightning.
Though weak instability should limit convective intensity across
most areas, through most of the period, a small window of
opportunity for slightly more robust convection may evolve during
the afternoon, in the west-central Alabama vicinity. With shear
expected to be plenty sufficient for organized/rotating storms,
ample instability would yield potential for severe weather.
However, at this time, it appears that even through the afternoon,
CAPE should remain minimal at best. Therefore, though a stronger
storm capable of gusty winds or even a brief tornado cannot be ruled
out within a zone centered over the west-central Alabama area,
potential appears too low to highlight with a risk area at this
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