SPC AC 010741
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 AM CST Tue Dec 01 2020
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Lower
Mississippi Valley and Southeast on Thursday.
At the beginning of the period, a pair of upper lows, one centered
over northeast OK and the other over the central NM/AZ, are expected
to be embedded within an elongated upper trough extending from the
Mid MS Valley through the Southwest. This upper troughing will
likely be maintained throughout the period as the easternmost upper
low devolves into an open wave and moves across the Mid MS Valley
into the Lower OH Valley. Enhanced mid-level flow attendant to this
upper low/shortwave will spread northeastward from the Southern
Plains through the OH Valley.
The surface low associated with the eastern upper low is forecast to
begin the period over eastern OK. This low is expected to fill
throughout the day while a secondary low develops farther south over
the Lower MS Valley. Upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints are anticipated
ahead of this secondary low and attendant cold front. Daytime
heating will be tempered by abundant cloud cover, but enough
low-level moisture is expected to be in place to support modest
instability and the development of isolated thunderstorms. This
instability will likely be displaced south of the stronger low-level
and mid-level flow, limiting vertical shear and keeping severe
potential very low.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z