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Mar 8, 2020 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sun Mar 8 07:46:30 UTC 2020 (Print Version | 20200308 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20200308 0830Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 080746

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0146 AM CST Sun Mar 08 2020

   Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO OZARK PLATEAU...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the southern Plains into
   Ozark Plateau Tuesday night, accompanied by at least some risk for
   severe hail.

   ...Synopsis...
   Short waves within a branch of westerlies across the northern tier
   of the U.S. appear likely to remain progressive through this period,
   while flow at lower latitudes, from the eastern Pacific into the
   southern tier of the U.S. and Gulf of Mexico, trends less
   progressive.

   In association with a couple of perturbations forecast to progress
   across eastern Canada and the Northeast, a surface low is forecast
   to migrate from north of the lower Great Lakes region through the
   Canadian Maritimes, with a trailing cold front advancing across the
   Northeast and the Ohio Valley.  The front may stall across parts of
   the Ozark Plateau through the southern Plains, as another weak
   surface low migrates southeastward across the Texas/Oklahoma
   Panhandle region through the south central Plains by late Tuesday
   night.  It appears that this will occur as another short wave trough
   digs southeast of the northern Rockies, and eventually contributes
   to at least some suppression of mid-level ridging across the
   southern Plains.

   This mid-level ridging may be maintained through much of the day
   Tuesday, downstream of a closed low only very slowly emerging from
   the southern mid-latitude/subtropical eastern Pacific.  Within
   larger-scale troughing, this low may weaken and elongate
   northeastward through central and southern California, but the
   mid-level cold core may remain offshore of the southern California
   coast.

   Destabilization downstream of the low, into the Southwest, and along
   and south of the frontal zone east of the Rockies, may contribute to
   areas of scattered thunderstorm development Tuesday through Tuesday
   night.  Much of this is expected to remain weak in nature, but a few
   strong storms do appear possible across parts of the southern Plains
   into the Ozark Plateau.

   ...Southern Plains into Ozark Plateau...
   As surface dew points increase through the lower/mid 60s along and
   south of the stalling frontal zone, lower/mid tropospheric lapse
   rates may become steep enough to support mixed-layer CAPE of
   500-1000 J/kg across northern and central Texas by late Tuesady
   afternoon.  Northeastward moisture return above the front may
   contribute to similar most unstable CAPE across southern/eastern
   Oklahoma into parts of the Ozark Plateau Tuesday night.  Beneath
   30-50+ kt west/northwesterly 500 mb flow, vertical shear probably
   will be sufficient to contribute to an environment at least
   conditionally supportive of organized severe thunderstorm
   development.

   Forcing for ascent may remain weak to negligible through much of the
   period, but the initiation of isolated boundary-layer based storms
   may not be out of the question near the intersection of the front
   and a developing dryline across northwest Texas late Tuesday
   afternoon.  Otherwise, destabilization within a developing lower/mid
   tropospheric warm advection regime may initiate scattered
   thunderstorm development across the Red River Valley toward the
   Ozark Plateau Tuesday night.  If this occurs, it appears that
   stronger storms could pose a risk for severe hail.

   ..Kerr.. 03/08/2020

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

        
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Page last modified: March 08, 2020
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