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Nov 27, 2022 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sun Nov 27 08:41:40 UTC 2022 (Print Version | 20221127 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20221127 0830Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 270841

   Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0241 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2022

   Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

   CORRECTED FOR WORDING

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms with wind damage and tornadoes, along with some
   hail, will be possible from the Sabine River Valley and lower
   Mississippi Valley north-northeastward into the mid Mississippi
   Valley on Tuesday. A significant severe-weather event will be likely
   across parts of the region.

   ...Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley/Sabine River Valley/Eastern
   Ozarks...
   A highly progressive upper-level trough will move quickly into the
   southern and central Rockies on Tuesday. Ahead of the system, a
   broad 40 to 60 knot low-level jet will transport low-level moisture
   northward across east Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley, where
   surface dewpoints should reach the lower to mid 60s by midday. In
   response to moisture advection and surface heating, moderate
   instability is forecast to develop by early afternoon across much of
   east Texas and Louisiana. Isolated to scattered convective
   initiation will be possible in the early afternoon from near the
   instability axis eastward across the lower Mississippi Valley. A
   severe threat will be possible with this activity.

   Moisture will continue to advect northward into the eastern Ozarks
   and mid Mississippi Valley during the late afternoon and early
   evening. This will set up a broad corridor of moderate instability
   across much of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. As the
   upper-level trough approaches from the west, the low-level jet is
   expected to strengthen into the 50 to 70 knot range by early
   evening. This combined with increasing deep-layer shear, associated
   with an approaching southern Plains mid-level jet, will make
   conditions very favorable for severe thunderstorms across the lower
   to mid Mississippi Valley. NAM forecast soundings along the axis of
   strongest instability, from northeast Louisiana into eastern
   Arkansas, by 03Z Wednesday have MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg
   range, with 0-6 km shear in the 60 to 70 knot range. This combined
   with a long and looped hodographs, with 0-3 km storm-relative
   helicities in the 400 to 500 m2/s2 range, will be favorable for
   supercells and tornadoes. A few strong tornadoes will be possible
   with the more dominant supercells that remain discrete. The most
   favorable area for strong tornadoes may develop along the western
   edge of the low-level jet, as is forecast by the ECMWF, from eastern
   Arkansas into northwest Mississippi and western Tennessee. A tornado
   outbreak will be possible across parts of the lower to mid
   Mississippi Valley, if the current forecast parameters, such as
   instability, deep-layer shear and low-level shear remain at current
   forecast levels.

   In addition to the tornado threat, the potential for wind damage
   will likely increase during the evening as storm coverage and the
   chance for cell interactions increase. Mid-level lapse rates are
   also expected to be steep, which should support a hail threat with
   the more intense cells. The extent of moisture return will determine
   how far north-northeast the severe threat develops. At this time, it
   appears that at least some severe threat will be possible during the
   evening and overnight period as far north as southern Illinois and
   southwest Indiana. A categorical upgrade will be possible in later
   outlooks.

   ..Broyles.. 11/27/2022

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z

        
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Page last modified: November 27, 2022
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