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< Day 2 Outlook   Day 4 - 8 Outlook >
Mar 5, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Tue Mar 5 08:30:18 UTC 2024 (Print Version | 20240305 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20240305 0830Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 050830

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0230 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024

   Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   CENTRAL INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Thursday
   afternoon through Thursday night across parts of the southern Plains
   to the ArkLaTex vicinity. Large hail should be the main threat.

   ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex...
   An upper trough/low initially centered over southern CA and
   northwest Mexico will traverse eastward across the Southwest and
   adjacent parts of northern Mexico on Thursday. Large-scale ascent
   preceding this upper trough will encourage lee cyclogenesis across
   the southern High Plains through Thursday evening. Modest low-level
   moisture, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 50s to low
   60s, should advance northward through the day across parts of TX
   into OK along and east of a surface dryline. A front is also
   forecast to sharpen on the northern edge of appreciable low-level
   moisture return across northern OK and southern KS.

   Elevated thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Thursday morning
   across parts of the southern/central Plains, with a generally low
   severe threat owing to weak MUCAPE forecast. There are still some
   differences in model guidance regarding the strength of the surface
   low across west TX, the placement of the dryline by late Thursday
   afternoon, and with the quality of low-level moisture return. Even
   with these continued uncertainties, weak to moderate instability
   should develop by peak afternoon heating along much of the length of
   the dryline, and south of the front in northern OK/southern KS. NAM
   forecast soundings across these areas show steep mid-level lapse
   rates present, along with strong deep-layer shear that should be
   more than sufficient for supercells.

   The primary uncertainty remains timing of surface-based convective
   initiation, and overall coverage given that the ejection of the
   upper trough across the southern High Plains is forecast to occur
   mainly Thursday night into early Friday morning. Still, any
   supercells that can develop should pose a threat for large hail and
   damaging winds. The tornado threat is less clear, with modest
   low-level moisture a potentially limiting factor. Regardless, a
   Slight Risk has been maintained where confidence is highest that
   convection will eventually develop through Thursday night. A broader
   Marginal Risk is in place across southern KS into OK/TX and the
   ArkLaTex where some potential for severe hail may exist, even though
   thunderstorms should have a tendency to remain elevated.

   ..Gleason.. 03/05/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z

        
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Page last modified: March 05, 2024
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