SPC AC 230746
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 AM CST Sun Jan 23 2022
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and
southern Florida. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A low amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to be
located over the Lower MS Valley early Tuesday morning before then
moving east-northeastward throughout the day. An attendant surface
low will begin the period displaced slightly to the south of its
parent shortwave. This surface low is expected to become
increasingly displaced from its parent shortwave trough throughout
the day, likely ending the period near the Keys/southwest FL.
Moisture return across the FL Peninsula ahead of this low will be
limited throughout much of the day Tuesday, until the stronger
low-level southerly flow begins Tuesday evening. Consequently, only
modest low-level moisture will be in place ahead of the approaching
surface low. Additionally, mid-level temperatures will remain warm
and the overnight timing of the low is unfavorable for surface-based
instability. All of these factors suggest thunderstorm coverage will
be rather limited across the region, with the severe thunderstorm
threat also tempered by the meager buoyancy.
Elsewhere, stable conditions are expected across the majority of the
central and eastern CONUS under an expansive surface ridge. Dry
conditions are anticipated across the western CONUS as well, as a
shortwave trough moves southeastward across the Intermountain West
and upper ridging begins building along the West Coast in its wake.
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