Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

< Day 2 Outlook   Day 4 - 8 Outlook >
Jan 19, 2022 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Wed Jan 19 09:08:36 UTC 2022 (Print Version | 20220119 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20220119 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Probabilistic
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 190908

   Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0308 AM CST Wed Jan 19 2022

   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Friday across
   parts of the central and southern Florida Peninsula.

   ...Florida Peninsula...
   A positively tilted, large-scale upper trough should continue
   advancing slowly eastward from the MS/OH Valleys to the East Coast
   through Friday night. Substantial low-level moisture, characterized
   by at least mid 60s surface dewpoints, will remain confined to the
   south of a warm front which is forecast to be positioned over parts
   of south FL Friday morning.

   Some differences remain in model guidance regarding how far north
   this rich low-level moisture will advance in tandem with the warm
   front across the southern/central FL Peninsula through the period.
   Regardless of this uncertainty, mid-level southwesterly flow is
   forecast to gradually strengthen by late Friday afternoon with the
   approach of the upper trough. Deep-layer shear appears strong enough
   to support supercells, especially across central FL, with gradually
   decreasing shear across south FL suggesting perhaps more of a
   multicellular mode with southward extent.

   With some diurnal heating occurring to the south of the front, at
   least weak instability should develop by peak afternoon heating. The
   forecast combination of sufficient instability and seasonably strong
   deep-layer shear indicates potential for isolated strong to severe
   thunderstorms with any convection that can develop along/south of
   the front. Large-scale ascent will be somewhat lacking with the best
   forcing associated with the upper trough likely remaining displaced
   to the north of the front. Still, weak low-level convergence along
   the front itself and along sea breeze boundaries may support
   isolated convection through Friday evening.

   Even though mid-level lapse rates are forecast to remain relatively
   modest, temperatures at 500 mb of -10 to -12 C across this region
   may support marginally severe hail in addition to an isolated threat
   for damaging winds. Fairly weak low-level flow casts greater
   uncertainty on the tornado threat. But, low potential for a rotating
   updraft or two may exist along the front itself, where low-level
   winds may be locally backed to a more southeasterly component.

   ..Gleason.. 01/19/2022

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z

        
Top/Latest Day 1 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: January 19, 2022
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities