SPC AC 120820
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 AM CST Sat Mar 12 2022
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EAST TEXAS AND THE ARKLATEX...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with large hail and wind damage are
expected to develop across parts of east Texas and the Arklatex
Monday afternoon and evening.
...East Texas/Arklatex
An upper-level trough will move from the southern Rockies into the
southern Plains on Monday, as a 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet rounds
the base of the trough. Ahead of the system, moisture will advect
northward into east Texas and Louisiana. A narrow corridor of
moderate instability is forecast to develop across east Texas by
late afternoon as a cold front approaches from the west.
Thunderstorm formation will be likely during the late afternoon near
and ahead of the cold front along the northwestern edge of the
stronger instability. These storms should become organized and move
eastward across the Arklatex Monday evening into the early overnight
period.
Nam forecast soundings along the instability axis in east Texas at
00Z/Tuesday have surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s F, with
MLCAPE reaching the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range. Deep-layer shear is
strong with 0-6 km shear near 60 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are
forecast to be near 7.5 C/km. This environment should be favorable
for supercells with isolated large hail. Wind damage will also be a
possibility associated with the stronger outflows. A marginal
tornado threat could also develop but low-level shear should remain
relatively weak minimizing the threat. The severe threat could
persist as thunderstorms move into southwest Arkansas and western
Louisiana during the mid to late evening, but the threat should
become more isolated as instability weakens across the region after
dark.
..Broyles.. 03/12/2022
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