SPC AC 290806

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0206 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

   Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
   THE SOUTHEAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered storms, including potential for a few severe storms, are
   forecast over parts of the central Gulf Coast states on Friday.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   On Friday, a moderately strong southwest flow regime will persist
   from the southern Plains to the OH Valley, with another shortwave
   trough moving across TX and OK during the day. This wave will have
   little if any instability to interact as it will arrive only a day
   after the OH Valley trough went through.

   At the surface, a front will be near the TX Coast, extending
   northeastward as a warm front across parts of LA/MS/AL during the
   day. 

   Scattered storms may be ongoing across LA and MS and AL early in the
   day, with increasing chances in the MS/AL area in association with
   the warm front and with the air of heating. Uncertainty exists as to
   the extend of destabilization, but 50 kt deep-layer effective shear
   as well as 30-40 kt mean boundary-layer winds will conditionally
   favor a few damaging gusts, especially where pockets of heating can
   occur. Low-level shear will likely be maximized over parts of AL and
   points northeast, with perhaps an overlapping area of supercell
   potential. However, potential for a cooler air mass where low-level
   shear is strongest precludes higher probabilities at this time.

   ..Jewell.. 11/29/2023

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z