Mar 10, 2019 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sun Mar 10 07:56:50 UTC 2019 (20190310 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20190310 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 139,286 3,345,331 Lubbock, TX...Abilene, TX...Killeen, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...Midland, TX...
MARGINAL 80,620 10,298,192 San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...
Probabilistic Graphic
20190310 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 139,316 3,345,333 Lubbock, TX...Abilene, TX...Killeen, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...Midland, TX...
5 % 80,503 10,294,859 San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...
   SPC AC 100756

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0156 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2019

   Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur on Tuesday across parts of
   the southern Plains.

   ...Synopsis...
   A closed upper low over the Baja Peninsula and lower CO River Valley
   Tuesday morning will move east-northeastward across the Southern
   Plains while developing into a negatively tilted shortwave trough.
   Surface high pressure initially centered over the OH Valley should
   shift eastward to the Mid-Atlantic and New England through the
   period. Strong forcing for ascent associated with the shortwave
   trough will encourage lee cyclogenesis across the southern/central
   High Plains by late Tuesday afternoon, with the primary surface
   cyclone eventually consolidating over eastern CO/western KS late
   Tuesday night.

   ...Southern Plains...
   Isolated to scattered convection should be ongoing across parts of
   the Southwest into the southern High Plains Tuesday morning.
   Low-level moisture will likely spread westward across the southern
   Plains through the day, with some diurnal heating probable across
   the higher terrain of west TX into southeastern NM. Convective
   initiation across this region should occur by late Tuesday afternoon
   as parcels reach their convective temperatures and pronounced
   forcing for ascent attendant to the shortwave trough overspreads
   this region. Strong shear and potentially moderate instability would
   support isolated supercells with large hail with this initial
   development.

   As a Pacific cold front overtakes the warm sector across the
   southern High Plains by Tuesday evening, an increase in convective
   coverage will likely occur. Strong to damaging winds would likely be
   the main threat with this squall line as it moves eastward across
   the southern Plains through the late evening and overnight hours. A
   tornado or two could also occur with strong low-level shear forecast
   to be present ahead of the line. Instability is forecast to
   gradually decrease with eastward extent across central/east TX, and
   some lessening of the damaging-wind risk should likewise occur late
   in the period.

   The primary forecast uncertainty remains the degree of low-level
   moisture return across the southern Plains through Tuesday evening.
   The 00Z GFS/ECMWF show higher surface dewpoints farther north into
   OK and west into eastern NM compared to the NAM. Additional
   adjustments to the northern extent of the Marginal and Slight risk
   areas will likely be needed once the potential for surface-based
   convection becomes clearer across the TX/OK Panhandles into
   western/central OK.

   ..Gleason.. 03/10/2019

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z