Mar 12, 2022 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sat Mar 12 08:20:43 UTC 2022 (20220312 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20220312 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 48,775 4,629,114 Dallas, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...Shreveport, LA...Mesquite, TX...
MARGINAL 96,052 16,188,146 Houston, TX...Fort Worth, TX...New Orleans, LA...Arlington, TX...Baton Rouge, LA...
Probabilistic Graphic
20220312 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 48,736 4,741,222 Dallas, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...Shreveport, LA...Mesquite, TX...
5 % 95,660 16,019,724 Houston, TX...Fort Worth, TX...New Orleans, LA...Arlington, TX...Baton Rouge, LA...
   SPC AC 120820

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0220 AM CST Sat Mar 12 2022

   Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   EAST TEXAS AND THE ARKLATEX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms associated with large hail and wind damage are
   expected to develop across parts of east Texas and the Arklatex
   Monday afternoon and evening.

   ...East Texas/Arklatex
   An upper-level trough will move from the southern Rockies into the
   southern Plains on Monday, as a 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet rounds
   the base of the trough. Ahead of the system, moisture will advect
   northward into east Texas and Louisiana. A narrow corridor of
   moderate instability is forecast to develop across east Texas by
   late afternoon as a cold front approaches from the west.
   Thunderstorm formation will be likely during the late afternoon near
   and ahead of the cold front along the northwestern edge of the
   stronger instability. These storms should become organized and move
   eastward across the Arklatex Monday evening into the early overnight
   period.

   Nam forecast soundings along the instability axis in east Texas at
   00Z/Tuesday have surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s F, with
   MLCAPE reaching the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range. Deep-layer shear is
   strong with 0-6 km shear near 60 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are
   forecast to be near 7.5 C/km. This environment should be favorable
   for supercells with isolated large hail. Wind damage will also be a
   possibility associated with the stronger outflows. A marginal
   tornado threat could also develop but low-level shear should remain
   relatively weak minimizing the threat. The severe threat could
   persist as thunderstorms move into southwest Arkansas and western
   Louisiana during the mid to late evening, but the threat should
   become more isolated as instability weakens across the region after
   dark.

   ..Broyles.. 03/12/2022

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z