Mar 20, 2019 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Wed Mar 20 06:51:09 UTC 2019 (20190320 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20190320 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20190320 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 200651

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0151 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2019

   Valid 221200Z - 231200Z


   Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the central
   and southern High Plains, especially during the afternoon and

   An amplified, slowly evolving blocking pattern will persist through
   the forecast period,  A long-wave trough will migrate eastward
   across the eastern U.S., while ridging persists across the center of
   the country.  In the West, a weak cutoff low will migrate northward
   toward Montana, and another shortwave within the base of this trough
   will take on a negative tilt while ejecting toward the southern
   Rockies/High Plains.  A longer-wave trough will approach the West
   Coast by the end of the period.

   At the surface, despite a second day of return flow of modified
   maritime air from the western Gulf toward the High Plains, only
   upper 40s/low 50s F dewpoints will reach western Kansas and the
   OK/TX Panhandles by evening.  This moistening will occur along and
   just ahead of a surface trough on the western extent of this moist
   advection.  A surface ridge along the extent of the Mississippi
   Valley will migrate slowly eastward over time while reinforcing
   relatively dry surface conditions across portions of the Southeast. 

   Lift associated with the Rockies troughs and warm advection will
   foster scattered showers and a few thunderstorms early in the
   period, with a general increase in spatial extent of precipitation
   throughout the forecast period.  Instability will remain limited
   owing to meager low-level moistening, although surface heating
   across portions of west Texas may result in enough buoyancy for an
   isolated severe threat with any linear segments that can materialize
   during peak heating hours.  This threat is not currently high enough
   for any severe probabilities.  Shower/thunderstorm activity should
   migrate eastward with time, reaching western Oklahoma and perhaps
   north Texas overnight.

   ..Cook.. 03/20/2019