Jun 22, 2018 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Fri Jun 22 07:40:04 UTC 2018 (20180622 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20180622 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 41,557 1,169,351 Wichita, KS...Salina, KS...Hutchinson, KS...Garden City, KS...Dodge City, KS...
SLIGHT 123,763 1,867,379 Lincoln, NE...Topeka, KS...Lawrence, KS...Enid, OK...Manhattan, KS...
MARGINAL 181,310 17,459,582 Denver, CO...Nashville, TN...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Tulsa, OK...
Probabilistic Graphic
20180622 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 69,408 1,384,821 Wichita, KS...Salina, KS...Manhattan, KS...Hutchinson, KS...Garden City, KS...
30 % 42,193 1,169,981 Wichita, KS...Salina, KS...Hutchinson, KS...Garden City, KS...Dodge City, KS...
15 % 123,550 1,907,133 Lincoln, NE...Topeka, KS...Lawrence, KS...Enid, OK...Manhattan, KS...
5 % 182,212 17,498,821 Denver, CO...Nashville, TN...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Tulsa, OK...
   SPC AC 220740

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0240 AM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
   WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Significant severe storms capable of destructive winds, very large
   hail and a few tornadoes are possible on Sunday across much of
   central and western Kansas. A few severe storms are also possible
   over parts of Tennessee and Kentucky.

   ...Central Plains...
   An upper low will move from the central Rockies into the Plains,
   with a belt of 50+ kt midlevel flow developing across CO, KS, and NE
   Sunday afternoon. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over the
   TX Panhandle, with a warm front lifting north across KS. Substantial
   low-level moisture will spread north behind this front,  with a 50
   kt low-level jet developing during the evening. Models suggest
   early-day storms are possible across northeast CO into western NE in
   association with the warm advection, with hail possible. Later in
   the day, heating across the southern High Plains will result in a
   plume of steep low-level lapse rates, and the moist boundary layer
   will deepen throughout the day near the warm front in KS. This,
   combined with cool air aloft will yield very strong instability with
   MUCAPE of 3500-4000 J/kg common. Storms are expected to form over
   western KS and spread east during the evening. Models indicate
   excessive convective feedback in the wind profiles, suggesting
   extreme amounts of latent heat release. While an MCS will eventually
   develop with damaging winds, a few tornadoes are also expected,
   either with individual supercells, or in QLCS fashion once the MCS
   develops.

   ...KY/TN...
   A low-amplitude shortwave trough will move from KY and TN toward the
   Appalachians, providing strong winds aloft. West-southwesterly
   low-level flow will also maintain a plume of instability, and
   forecast soundings show profiles favorable for both hail and wind.
   Early-day storms may affect the main threat area, thus will maintain
   low probabilities at this time, with the potential for a small
   Slight Risk in later outlooks.

   ..Jewell.. 06/22/2018

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z