Jul 15, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Mon Jul 15 07:30:51 UTC 2024 (20240715 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20240715 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 240,225 60,135,399 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Boston, MA...Denver, CO...
Probabilistic Graphic
20240715 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 238,986 60,015,398 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Boston, MA...Denver, CO...
   SPC AC 150730

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0230 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

   Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
   NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolate strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the
   northern Mid-Atlantic into New England, as well as the central High
   Plains, on Wednesday.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   Upper troughing is forecast to extend from Ontario through the Upper
   Midwest early Wednesday morning, before gradually shifting eastward
   throughout the day and ending the period extended from western
   Quebec into the Mid MS Valley. Enhanced mid-level flow will extend
   through the southern and eastern periphery of this upper trough,
   stretching from the OH Valley into the Northeast throughout the
   period. Surface low attendant to this upper trough will likely be
   over Quebec early Wednesday, with an extensive cold front stretching
   from this low southwestward into the northern portions of the
   southern Plains. This front is forecast to progress eastward across
   the Northeast, southeastward across the OH and TN Valleys, and
   southward across the southern Plains throughout the day. A moist and
   buoyant airmass will precede this front, and thunderstorms are
   likely as it progresses downstream. Much of this front will be
   displaced south of the stronger mid-level flow. The only exception
   is from the northern Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast, where moderate
   cross-boundary mid-level flow is likely. This will result in an
   environment supporting strong to severe thunderstorms, with damaging
   gusts as the primary threat.

   Numerous to widespread thunderstorms appear likely across the
   central Rockies as well, supported by increased mid-level moisture
   and northwesterly flow within the western periphery of an extensive
   upper ridge covering the western CONUS. Post-frontal upslope flow
   will bring favorable low-level moisture into the central High
   Plains. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may result as storms
   move off the higher terrain into the moderately moist and buoyant
   airmass downstream. Damaging gusts will be the primary severe
   threat.

   ..Mosier.. 07/15/2024

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z