Denver, CO...Nashville, TN...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Tulsa, OK...
SPC AC 220740
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0240 AM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS...
Significant severe storms capable of destructive winds, very large
hail and a few tornadoes are possible on Sunday across much of
central and western Kansas. A few severe storms are also possible
over parts of Tennessee and Kentucky.
An upper low will move from the central Rockies into the Plains,
with a belt of 50+ kt midlevel flow developing across CO, KS, and NE
Sunday afternoon. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over the
TX Panhandle, with a warm front lifting north across KS. Substantial
low-level moisture will spread north behind this front, with a 50
kt low-level jet developing during the evening. Models suggest
early-day storms are possible across northeast CO into western NE in
association with the warm advection, with hail possible. Later in
the day, heating across the southern High Plains will result in a
plume of steep low-level lapse rates, and the moist boundary layer
will deepen throughout the day near the warm front in KS. This,
combined with cool air aloft will yield very strong instability with
MUCAPE of 3500-4000 J/kg common. Storms are expected to form over
western KS and spread east during the evening. Models indicate
excessive convective feedback in the wind profiles, suggesting
extreme amounts of latent heat release. While an MCS will eventually
develop with damaging winds, a few tornadoes are also expected,
either with individual supercells, or in QLCS fashion once the MCS
A low-amplitude shortwave trough will move from KY and TN toward the
Appalachians, providing strong winds aloft. West-southwesterly
low-level flow will also maintain a plume of instability, and
forecast soundings show profiles favorable for both hail and wind.
Early-day storms may affect the main threat area, thus will maintain
low probabilities at this time, with the potential for a small
Slight Risk in later outlooks.
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z