Oct 19, 2018 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Fri Oct 19 05:06:13 UTC 2018 (20181019 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20181019 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20181019 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 190506

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1206 AM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Great Basin
   into Arizona on Sunday, and across parts of western and central
   Texas Sunday night.

   ...Synopsis...
   A weak upper low will drift east across the Great Basin with a 30-40
   kt midlevel speed max nosing into southern AZ. Cool temperatures
   aloft combined with midlevel moisture will favor scattered
   thunderstorms across the region, with little threat of severe
   weather. To the east, high pressure will extend from TX to the Mid
   Atlantic coast as an amplified upper trough ejects out of New
   England. Ahead of the southwestern upper trough, minor disturbances
   embedded in the southwesterlies over TX may support a few elevated
   thunderstorms mainly Sunday night toward the middle Rio Grande
   Valley. Instability will remain quite weak, with a cool boundary
   layer in place.

   ..Jewell.. 10/19/2018

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z