SPC AC 010705

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0205 AM CDT Sat Apr 01 2023

   Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY
   AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL 
   TEXAS...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS....WESTERN MISSOURI AND
   NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated to widely scattered strong storms may impact parts of the
   central and southern Great Plains late Monday afternoon and Monday
   night, posing some risk for severe weather.

   ...Synopsis...
   Models suggest that large-scale mid-level ridging developing within
   the westerlies across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific will reach
   peak amplitude by the beginning of this period.  As additional
   perturbations continue to dig to the east of this regime, inland of
   the Pacific coast, it appears that an amplifying lead short wave
   trough will pivot eastward across the Great Basin through Rockies
   vicinity.  As this occurs, large-scale downstream mid-level ridging
   is forecast to build across and to the east of the mid/upper
   Mississippi Valley, while ridging also builds near and east of the
   lower Mississippi Valley, to the north of persistent mid-level
   subtropical ridging centered near the Yucatan Peninsula.  This is
   expected to coincide with the initiation of strong cyclogenesis from
   eastern Colorado through western Kansas by late Monday night.

   A broad belt of strengthening southerly return flow will contribute
   to further low-level moistening across the lower Great Plains into
   Mississippi Valley, as far north as a stalling frontal zone in the
   wake of a short wave perturbation accelerating east-northeast of the
   Great Lakes region through the Canadian Maritimes.  This front is
   forecast to sharpen while slowly returning northward through
   southern portions of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region by
   late Monday night.  At the same time, as a mid-level low of Arctic
   origins lingers near/southeast of Hudson Bay, associated cold
   surface air may begin to advance southward into portions of the
   northern Great Plains and upper Great Lakes region.

   ...Great Plains/Mississippi Valley...
   Beneath rising mid/upper-level heights and increasing inhibition
   associated with elevated mixed-layer air advecting northward and
   northeastward across the region, convective potential for Monday
   through Monday night remains unclear.  The dryline across central
   Texas into eastern Kansas could provide one possible focus for
   strong thunderstorm development, either during the late afternoon
   into early evening, or later Monday night.  Any such activity seems
   likely to remain rather isolated to widely scattered, but with any
   sustained thunderstorm development, the environment probably will be
   conducive to supercells posing at least a risk for severe hail.

   ..Kerr.. 04/01/2023

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z