Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 244
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
150 PM EDT SUN MAY 6 2007
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA PENINSULA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 150 PM UNTIL 800
PM EDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH OF
OCALA FLORIDA TO 65 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF WEST PALM BEACH
FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 243...
DISCUSSION...INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORMS IS UNDERWAY IN MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR AT LEAST SHORT-LIVED
SUPERCELLS. RISK...PRIMARILY...FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK UPPER TROUGH PROMOTES INCREASING COVERAGE OF STORMS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 36025.
...KERR/HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 244 SEVERE TSTM FL CW 061750Z - 070000Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
25N OCF/OCALA FL/ - 65SSW PBI/WEST PALM BEACH FL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM E/W /44E CTY - 10W MIA/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 36025.
LAT...LON 29538113 25807944 25808152 29538330
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 244 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 244
VALID 062300Z - 070040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW PIE
TO 55 SSE AGR TO 20 NNE PBI.
..SPC..05/06/07
ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB...MFL...TBW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 244
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC011-015-021-027-043-049-051-055-057-071-081-086-087-099-101-
103-115-070040-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWARD CHARLOTTE COLLIER
DESOTO GLADES HARDEE
HENDRY HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH
LEE MANATEE MIAMI-DADE
MONROE PALM BEACH PASCO
PINELLAS SARASOTA
$$
AMZ610-630-650-651-GMZ656-657-830-853-856-070040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE
BISCAYNE BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FL OUT 20 NM
TAMPA BAY WATERS
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 244
VALID 062025Z - 062140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW GNV TO
35 SE DAB.
..KERR..05/06/07
ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB...MFL...TBW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 244
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC009-011-015-017-021-027-043-049-051-053-055-057-061-069-071-
075-081-083-085-086-087-093-095-097-099-101-103-105-111-115-117-
119-062140-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BREVARD BROWARD CHARLOTTE
CITRUS COLLIER DESOTO
GLADES HARDEE HENDRY
HERNANDO HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH
INDIAN RIVER LAKE LEE
LEVY MANATEE MARION
MARTIN MIAMI-DADE MONROE
OKEECHOBEE ORANGE OSCEOLA
PALM BEACH PASCO PINELLAS
POLK ST. LUCIE SARASOTA
SEMINOLE SUMTER
$$
AMZ555-610-630-650-651-GMZ656-657-830-850-853-856-062140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET FL OUT 20 NM
LAKE OKEECHOBEE
BISCAYNE BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FL OUT 20 NM
TAMPA BAY WATERS
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 244
VALID 061935Z - 062040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE GNV
TO 10 SE DAB.
..KERR..05/06/07
ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB...MFL...TBW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 244
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC009-011-015-017-021-027-043-049-051-053-055-057-061-069-071-
075-081-083-085-086-087-093-095-097-099-101-103-105-111-115-117-
119-127-062040-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BREVARD BROWARD CHARLOTTE
CITRUS COLLIER DESOTO
GLADES HARDEE HENDRY
HERNANDO HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH
INDIAN RIVER LAKE LEE
LEVY MANATEE MARION
MARTIN MIAMI-DADE MONROE
OKEECHOBEE ORANGE OSCEOLA
PALM BEACH PASCO PINELLAS
POLK ST. LUCIE SARASOTA
SEMINOLE SUMTER VOLUSIA
$$
AMZ550-555-610-630-650-651-GMZ656-657-830-850-853-856-062040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET FL OUT 20 NM
LAKE OKEECHOBEE
BISCAYNE BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FL OUT 20 NM
TAMPA BAY WATERS
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 244
VALID 061845Z - 061940Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GUYER..05/06/07
ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB...MFL...TBW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 244
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC001-009-011-015-017-021-027-035-043-049-051-053-055-057-061-
069-071-075-081-083-085-086-087-093-095-097-099-101-103-105-107-
111-115-117-119-127-061940-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALACHUA BREVARD BROWARD
CHARLOTTE CITRUS COLLIER
DESOTO FLAGLER GLADES
HARDEE HENDRY HERNANDO
HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH INDIAN RIVER
LAKE LEE LEVY
MANATEE MARION MARTIN
MIAMI-DADE MONROE OKEECHOBEE
ORANGE OSCEOLA PALM BEACH
PASCO PINELLAS POLK
PUTNAM ST. LUCIE SARASOTA
SEMINOLE SUMTER VOLUSIA
$$
AMZ454-550-555-610-630-650-651-GMZ656-657-830-850-853-856-
061940-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET FL OUT 20 NM
LAKE OKEECHOBEE
BISCAYNE BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FL OUT 20 NM
TAMPA BAY WATERS
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (40%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.