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The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 807
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
715 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
NORTHWEST INDIANA
EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
LAKE MICHIGAN
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 715 PM UNTIL
200 AM CDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
EXTREMELY DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 90 MPH...LARGE HAIL
TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF MEIGS FIELD ILLINOIS TO 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SOUTH
BEND INDIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 806...
DISCUSSION...DEVELOPING INTENSE BOW ECHO IN NRN IL WILL LIKELY MOVE
THROUGH THE CHICAGO AREA INTO NW INDIANA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE MCS SHOULD MAINTAIN INTENSITY MOVING ALONG A GRADIENT OF EXTREME
INSTABILITY ACROSS NE IL INTO NW INDIANA. VERY DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN A NARROW SWATH INCLUDING CHICAGO...ALONG WITH AN
ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 80
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28050.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 807 SEVERE TSTM IL IN MI LM 050015Z - 050700Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
55WSW CGX/MEIGS FIELD IL/ - 30SE SBN/SOUTH BEND IN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM N/S /13W JOT - 29SE GIJ/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..80 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28050.
LAT...LON 42278859 42118591 40668591 40848859
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 807 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 807
VALID 050545Z - 050640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE MMO
TO 20 WNW VPZ TO 10 NW BEH.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2031
..DIAL..08/05/08
ATTN...WFO...LOT...IWX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 807
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC053-075-091-105-050640-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FORD IROQUOIS KANKAKEE
LIVINGSTON
$$
INC001-003-007-009-017-033-039-049-053-069-073-075-085-087-089-
091-099-103-111-113-127-131-141-149-151-169-179-181-183-
050640-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ALLEN BENTON
BLACKFORD CASS DE KALB
ELKHART FULTON GRANT
HUNTINGTON JASPER JAY
KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE LAKE
LA PORTE MARSHALL MIAMI
NEWTON NOBLE PORTER
PULASKI ST. JOSEPH STARKE
STEUBEN WABASH WELLS
WHITE WHITLEY
$$
MIC021-023-027-149-050640-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERRIEN BRANCH CASS
ST. JOSEPH
$$
LMZ043-046-080-050640-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI
MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI
LAKE MICHIGAN MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM OFF SHORE TO
MID LAKE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 807
VALID 050445Z - 050540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW MMO
TO 40 E MMO TO 20 SE CGX TO 10 NNW BEH.
..EDWARDS..08/05/08
ATTN...WFO...LOT...IWX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 807
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC053-075-091-105-050540-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FORD IROQUOIS KANKAKEE
LIVINGSTON
$$
INC001-003-007-009-017-033-039-049-053-069-073-075-085-087-089-
091-099-103-111-113-127-131-141-149-151-169-179-181-183-
050540-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ALLEN BENTON
BLACKFORD CASS DE KALB
ELKHART FULTON GRANT
HUNTINGTON JASPER JAY
KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE LAKE
LA PORTE MARSHALL MIAMI
NEWTON NOBLE PORTER
PULASKI ST. JOSEPH STARKE
STEUBEN WABASH WELLS
WHITE WHITLEY
$$
MIC021-023-027-149-050540-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERRIEN BRANCH CASS
ST. JOSEPH
$$
LMZ043-046-080-050540-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI
MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI
LAKE MICHIGAN MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM OFF SHORE TO
MID LAKE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 807
VALID 050345Z - 050440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S MMO TO
25 SSE CGX TO 15 WNW BEH.
..EDWARDS..08/05/08
ATTN...WFO...LOT...IWX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 807
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC001-003-009-033-053-069-075-087-113-151-179-183-050440-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ALLEN BLACKFORD
DE KALB GRANT HUNTINGTON
JAY LAGRANGE NOBLE
STEUBEN WELLS WHITLEY
$$
MIC023-149-050440-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRANCH ST. JOSEPH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 807
VALID 050240Z - 050340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S MMO TO
10 NW VPZ TO 5 N BEH.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2029.
..EDWARDS..08/05/08
ATTN...WFO...LOT...IWX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 807
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC053-075-091-105-197-050340-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FORD IROQUOIS KANKAKEE
LIVINGSTON WILL
$$
INC001-003-007-009-017-033-039-049-053-069-073-075-085-087-089-
091-099-103-111-113-127-131-141-149-151-169-179-181-183-
050340-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ALLEN BENTON
BLACKFORD CASS DE KALB
ELKHART FULTON GRANT
HUNTINGTON JASPER JAY
KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE LAKE
LA PORTE MARSHALL MIAMI
NEWTON NOBLE PORTER
PULASKI ST. JOSEPH STARKE
STEUBEN WABASH WELLS
WHITE WHITLEY
$$
MIC021-023-027-149-050340-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERRIEN BRANCH CASS
ST. JOSEPH
$$
LMZ043-046-080-744-745-050340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI
MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI
LAKE MICHIGAN MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM OFF SHORE TO
MID LAKE
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR IN
BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 807
VALID 050145Z - 050240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE RFD TO
35 WNW CGX TO 35 SSW RAC.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FORTHCOMING.
..EDWARDS..08/05/08
ATTN...WFO...LOT...IWX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 807
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC031-043-053-063-075-089-091-093-097-105-197-050240-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COOK DUPAGE FORD
GRUNDY IROQUOIS KANE
KANKAKEE KENDALL LAKE
LIVINGSTON WILL
$$
INC007-017-039-049-073-085-089-091-099-103-111-127-131-141-149-
169-181-050240-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CASS ELKHART
FULTON JASPER KOSCIUSKO
LAKE LA PORTE MARSHALL
MIAMI NEWTON PORTER
PULASKI ST. JOSEPH STARKE
WABASH WHITE
$$
MIC021-027-050240-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERRIEN CASS
$$
LMZ043-046-080-740-741-742-743-744-745-779-050240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI
MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI
LAKE MICHIGAN MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM OFF SHORE TO
MID LAKE
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND IL
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR IL
CALUMET HARBOR IL TO GARY IN
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR IN
BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5NM OFF
SHORE TO MID LAKE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (90%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
High (80%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
@NWSSPC
