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Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 266
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
455 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ARKANSAS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING FROM 455 AM UNTIL NOON CDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
EXTREMELY DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...LARGE HAIL
TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHEAST
OF WEST PLAINS MISSOURI TO 40 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
BARTLESVILLE OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 264...WW 265...
DISCUSSION...A LARGE CLUSTER OF INTENSE CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST KS
WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO A BOW ECHO THIS MORNING AND RACE
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST MO/NORTHEAST OK/NORTHWEST AR.
HIGH INSTABILITY AND RATHER STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SUGGEST THAT
A CORRIDOR OF SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29035.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 266 SEVERE TSTM AR KS MO OK 080955Z - 081700Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
45NE UNO/WEST PLAINS MO/ - 40WSW BVO/BARTLESVILLE OK/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM N/S /58WSW FAM - 48WNW TUL/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29035.
LAT...LON 36049129 35389669 37709669 38369129
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 266 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 266
VALID 081440Z - 081540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW MKO
TO 20 ESE TUL TO 15 ENE UMN TO 40 S SZL.
..DIAL..05/08/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 266
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-007-009-015-033-047-049-071-087-089-101-129-143-081540-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BENTON BOONE
CARROLL CRAWFORD FRANKLIN
FULTON JOHNSON MADISON
MARION NEWTON SEARCY
WASHINGTON
$$
MOC009-015-029-043-059-067-077-085-091-105-119-125-131-141-153-
161-167-169-209-213-215-225-229-081540-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY BENTON CAMDEN
CHRISTIAN DALLAS DOUGLAS
GREENE HICKORY HOWELL
LACLEDE MCDONALD MARIES
MILLER MORGAN OZARK
PHELPS POLK PULASKI
STONE TANEY TEXAS
WEBSTER WRIGHT
$$
OKC001-021-041-101-135-145-081540-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE DELAWARE
MUSKOGEE SEQUOYAH WAGONER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 266
VALID 081335Z - 081440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE CQB
TO 20 NW GMJ TO 5 ENE JLN TO 45 ENE CNU.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE FORTHCOMING MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
758.
..GRAMS..05/08/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 266
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-007-009-015-033-047-049-065-071-087-089-101-129-135-137-
143-081440-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BENTON BOONE
CARROLL CRAWFORD FRANKLIN
FULTON IZARD JOHNSON
MADISON MARION NEWTON
SEARCY SHARP STONE
WASHINGTON
$$
MOC009-011-015-029-039-043-057-059-065-067-077-085-091-097-105-
109-119-125-131-141-145-149-153-161-167-169-185-203-209-213-215-
217-225-229-081440-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY BARTON BENTON
CAMDEN CEDAR CHRISTIAN
DADE DALLAS DENT
DOUGLAS GREENE HICKORY
HOWELL JASPER LACLEDE
LAWRENCE MCDONALD MARIES
MILLER MORGAN NEWTON
OREGON OZARK PHELPS
POLK PULASKI ST. CLAIR
SHANNON STONE TANEY
TEXAS VERNON WEBSTER
WRIGHT
$$
OKC001-021-035-037-041-097-101-111-115-131-135-143-145-081440-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE CRAIG
CREEK DELAWARE MAYES
MUSKOGEE OKMULGEE OTTAWA
ROGERS SEQUOYAH TULSA
WAGONER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 266
VALID 081235Z - 081340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE PNC
TO 5 ENE BVO TO 25 NW GMJ TO 5 ENE JLN TO 20 N JLN TO 40 ENE CNU.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 757
..SPC..05/08/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 266
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-007-009-015-033-047-049-065-071-087-089-101-129-135-137-
143-081340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BENTON BOONE
CARROLL CRAWFORD FRANKLIN
FULTON IZARD JOHNSON
MADISON MARION NEWTON
SEARCY SHARP STONE
WASHINGTON
$$
MOC009-011-015-029-039-043-057-059-065-067-077-085-091-097-105-
109-119-125-131-141-145-149-153-161-167-169-185-203-209-213-215-
217-225-229-081340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY BARTON BENTON
CAMDEN CEDAR CHRISTIAN
DADE DALLAS DENT
DOUGLAS GREENE HICKORY
HOWELL JASPER LACLEDE
LAWRENCE MCDONALD MARIES
MILLER MORGAN NEWTON
OREGON OZARK PHELPS
POLK PULASKI ST. CLAIR
SHANNON STONE TANEY
TEXAS VERNON WEBSTER
WRIGHT
$$
OKC001-021-035-037-041-097-101-105-111-113-115-117-131-135-143-
145-147-081340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE CRAIG
CREEK DELAWARE MAYES
MUSKOGEE NOWATA OKMULGEE
OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE
ROGERS SEQUOYAH TULSA
WAGONER WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
High (80%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (>95%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
@NWSSPC
