Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 328
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
125 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN COLORADO
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 125 PM UNTIL
900 PM MDT.
HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF
AKRON COLORADO TO 25 MILES SOUTH OF TUCUMCARI NEW MEXICO. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 327...
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
COLORADO AND NRN NEW MEXICO...AND SHOULD INTENSIFY AS THE STORMS
MOVE SEWD INTO A WARMING AND DESTABILIZING AIR MASS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE FOOTHILLS. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. THE COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND EXPECTED MID LEVEL ROTATION IN STORMS FAVORS LARGE HAIL AS
THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...A BRIEF TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG
E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 32025.
...IMY
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 328 SEVERE TSTM CO NM OK TX 041925Z - 050300Z
AXIS..85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
40NW AKO/AKRON CO/ - 25S TCC/TUCUMCARI NM/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM E/W /37NW AKO - 22S TCC/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 32025.
LAT...LON 40580213 34810209 34810509 40580537
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 328 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 328
VALID 050030Z - 050140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NE 4CR TO
30 SSE RTN TO 35 N TAD TO 30 NE COS TO 25 N FCL.
..BROYLES..06/05/09
ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...ABQ...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 328
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC001-005-009-011-017-025-039-061-063-071-073-087-089-099-121-
123-050140-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ARAPAHOE BACA
BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY
ELBERT KIOWA KIT CARSON
LAS ANIMAS LINCOLN MORGAN
OTERO PROWERS WASHINGTON
WELD
$$
NMC021-037-059-050140-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HARDING QUAY UNION
$$
OKC025-050140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CIMARRON
$$
TXC111-117-205-341-359-375-381-421-050140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DALLAM DEAF SMITH HARTLEY
MOORE OLDHAM POTTER
RANDALL SHERMAN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 328
VALID 042330Z - 050040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..06/04/09
ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...ABQ...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 328
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC001-005-009-011-013-014-017-025-027-031-035-039-041-043-055-
059-061-063-069-071-073-087-089-099-101-119-121-123-050040-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ARAPAHOE BACA
BENT BOULDER BROOMFIELD
CHEYENNE CROWLEY CUSTER
DENVER DOUGLAS ELBERT
EL PASO FREMONT HUERFANO
JEFFERSON KIOWA KIT CARSON
LARIMER LAS ANIMAS LINCOLN
MORGAN OTERO PROWERS
PUEBLO TELLER WASHINGTON
WELD
$$
NMC007-021-033-037-047-059-050040-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLFAX HARDING MORA
QUAY SAN MIGUEL UNION
$$
OKC025-050040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CIMARRON
$$
TXC111-117-205-341-359-375-381-421-050040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DALLAM DEAF SMITH HARTLEY
MOORE OLDHAM POTTER
RANDALL SHERMAN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 328
VALID 042130Z - 042240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..06/04/09
ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...ABQ...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 328
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC001-005-009-011-013-014-017-025-027-031-035-039-041-043-055-
059-061-063-069-071-073-087-089-099-101-119-121-123-042240-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ARAPAHOE BACA
BENT BOULDER BROOMFIELD
CHEYENNE CROWLEY CUSTER
DENVER DOUGLAS ELBERT
EL PASO FREMONT HUERFANO
JEFFERSON KIOWA KIT CARSON
LARIMER LAS ANIMAS LINCOLN
MORGAN OTERO PROWERS
PUEBLO TELLER WASHINGTON
WELD
$$
NMC007-021-033-037-047-059-042240-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLFAX HARDING MORA
QUAY SAN MIGUEL UNION
$$
OKC025-042240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CIMARRON
$$
TXC111-117-205-341-359-375-381-421-042240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DALLAM DEAF SMITH HARTLEY
MOORE OLDHAM POTTER
RANDALL SHERMAN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 328
VALID 042035Z - 042140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SMITH..06/04/09
ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...ABQ...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 328
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC001-005-009-011-013-014-017-025-027-031-035-039-041-043-055-
059-061-063-069-071-073-087-089-099-101-119-121-123-042140-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ARAPAHOE BACA
BENT BOULDER BROOMFIELD
CHEYENNE CROWLEY CUSTER
DENVER DOUGLAS ELBERT
EL PASO FREMONT HUERFANO
JEFFERSON KIOWA KIT CARSON
LARIMER LAS ANIMAS LINCOLN
MORGAN OTERO PROWERS
PUEBLO TELLER WASHINGTON
WELD
$$
NMC007-021-033-037-047-059-042140-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLFAX HARDING MORA
QUAY SAN MIGUEL UNION
$$
OKC025-042140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CIMARRON
$$
TXC111-117-205-341-359-375-381-421-042140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DALLAM DEAF SMITH HARTLEY
MOORE OLDHAM POTTER
RANDALL SHERMAN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (40%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.