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The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 158
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
825 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EXTREME NORTHEAST KANSAS
NORTHERN MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM 825 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHWEST
OF SAINT JOSEPH MISSOURI TO 55 MILES EAST OF KIRKSVILLE MISSOURI.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 155...WW 156...WW 157...
DISCUSSION...STORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THROUGH LATE
EVENING AS WEAK FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS EWD FROM KS AND LOW LEVEL JET
INTENSIFIES AND AIDS LOW LEVEL ASCENT ACROSS WEST-EAST WARM FRONT
OVER NCNTRL MO. WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS FUELING THIS DEVELOPMENT
WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS STORM UPDRAFTS WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING AND
STRONG SHEAR CONTRIBUTE TO STORM ORGANIZATION AND PERSISTENCE. MID
LEVEL JET STREAK OF 60KT ACROSS ERN KS WILL BE ORIENTED
PREFERENTIALLY INTO NW-SE BANDS OF FAST-MOVING STORMS AND FURTHER
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND EVENT TO EVOLVE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG/NEAR RETREATING WARM FRONT AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
OVER THE AREA.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24050.
...CARBIN
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 158 SEVERE TSTM KS MO 130125Z - 130500Z
AXIS..40 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
25NW STJ/SAINT JOSEPH MO/ - 55E IRK/KIRKSVILLE MO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 35NM N/S /45ESE PWE - 18NW UIN/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24050.
LAT...LON 40599525 40669151 39529151 39459525
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 158 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 158
VALID 130355Z - 130440Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..ROGERS..05/13/10
ATTN...WFO...EAX...DVN...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 158
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC005-043-130440-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON DONIPHAN
$$
MOC001-003-005-021-041-045-061-063-075-079-081-087-103-111-115-
121-127-129-137-147-171-173-175-197-199-205-211-227-130440-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ANDREW ATCHISON
BUCHANAN CHARITON CLARK
DAVIESS DEKALB GENTRY
GRUNDY HARRISON HOLT
KNOX LEWIS LINN
MACON MARION MERCER
MONROE NODAWAY PUTNAM
RALLS RANDOLPH SCHUYLER
SCOTLAND SHELBY SULLIVAN
WORTH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 158
VALID 130300Z - 130440Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..ROGERS..05/13/10
ATTN...WFO...EAX...DVN...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 158
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC005-043-130440-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON DONIPHAN
$$
MOC001-003-005-021-041-045-061-063-075-079-081-087-103-111-115-
121-127-129-137-147-171-173-175-197-199-205-211-227-130440-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ANDREW ATCHISON
BUCHANAN CHARITON CLARK
DAVIESS DEKALB GENTRY
GRUNDY HARRISON HOLT
KNOX LEWIS LINN
MACON MARION MERCER
MONROE NODAWAY PUTNAM
RALLS RANDOLPH SCHUYLER
SCOTLAND SHELBY SULLIVAN
WORTH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
@NWSSPC
