Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 202
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
510 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 510 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF
JAMESTOWN NORTH DAKOTA TO 55 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF PIERRE SOUTH
DAKOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL SD...AND
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. EXTREME
INSTABILITY...COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 202 TORNADO ND SD 222210Z - 230600Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
30NE JMS/JAMESTOWN ND/ - 55ESE PIR/PIERRE SD/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /60SW GFK - 44ESE PIR/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..4 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
LAT...LON 47229673 44069784 44060066 47229972
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 202 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 202
VALID 230530Z - 230640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S HON TO
40 NE ABR TO 25 NNE JMS.
..GUYER..05/23/10
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 202
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC003-073-077-081-230640-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARNES RANSOM RICHLAND
SARGENT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 202
VALID 230530Z - 230640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S HON TO
40 NE ABR TO 25 NNE JMS.
..GUYER..05/23/10
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 202
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC003-073-077-081-230640-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARNES RANSOM RICHLAND
SARGENT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 202
VALID 230340Z - 230440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N 9V9 TO
35 NNE ABR TO 25 NW JMS.
..GOSS..05/23/10
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 202
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC003-073-077-081-230440-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARNES RANSOM RICHLAND
SARGENT
$$
SDC013-017-025-037-059-091-109-115-230440-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN BUFFALO CLARK
DAY HAND MARSHALL
ROBERTS SPINK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 202
VALID 230235Z - 230340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE PIR
TO 45 E MBG TO 40 E BIS.
..GRAMS..05/23/10
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 202
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC003-021-043-045-047-051-073-077-081-093-230340-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARNES DICKEY KIDDER
LAMOURE LOGAN MCINTOSH
RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT
STUTSMAN
$$
SDC013-017-025-037-045-049-059-069-085-089-091-109-115-230340-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN BUFFALO CLARK
DAY EDMUNDS FAULK
HAND HYDE LYMAN
MCPHERSON MARSHALL ROBERTS
SPINK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 202
VALID 230140Z - 230240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW PIR
TO 45 E MBG TO 45 ESE BIS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 666.
..GRAMS..05/23/10
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 202
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC003-021-043-045-047-051-073-077-081-093-230240-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARNES DICKEY KIDDER
LAMOURE LOGAN MCINTOSH
RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT
STUTSMAN
$$
SDC013-017-025-037-045-049-059-065-069-085-089-091-109-115-119-
230240-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN BUFFALO CLARK
DAY EDMUNDS FAULK
HAND HUGHES HYDE
LYMAN MCPHERSON MARSHALL
ROBERTS SPINK SULLY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 202
VALID 230040Z - 230140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 666.
..GRAMS..05/23/10
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 202
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC003-021-029-043-045-047-051-073-077-081-093-230140-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARNES DICKEY EMMONS
KIDDER LAMOURE LOGAN
MCINTOSH RANSOM RICHLAND
SARGENT STUTSMAN
$$
SDC013-017-021-025-037-045-049-059-065-069-085-089-091-107-109-
115-119-129-230140-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN BUFFALO CAMPBELL
CLARK DAY EDMUNDS
FAULK HAND HUGHES
HYDE LYMAN MCPHERSON
MARSHALL POTTER ROBERTS
SPINK SULLY WALWORTH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (80%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
High (80%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.