Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 206
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
305 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST AND PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
LAKE SUPERIOR
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 305 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF ELY MINNESOTA TO 20 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF SAINT
CLOUD MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG STALLING SURFACE FRONT WHERE INFLOW AIR MASS HAS
BECOME MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-3000
J/KG. REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE ERN FRINGE OF STRONGER MID AND
HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELD WITH 30-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR RESIDING
ALONG FRONTAL ZONE. AS SUCH...AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25030.
...MEAD
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 206 SEVERE TSTM MN WI LS 232005Z - 240300Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
30ENE ELO/ELY MN/ - 20ESE STC/SAINT CLOUD MN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /80WSW YQT - 38NNW MSP/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.
LAT...LON 48068997 45439243 45439491 48069256
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 206 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 206
VALID 240225Z - 240300Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW STC
TO 35 SSW HIB TO 40 NW GNA TO 25 NNE GNA TO 10 SSW GNA TO 10 S
DLH TO 30 ESE STC.
WW 206 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 240300Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 679.
..GRAMS..05/24/10
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 206
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC001-009-017-031-059-065-075-095-097-137-141-145-240300-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AITKIN BENTON CARLTON
COOK ISANTI KANABEC
LAKE MILLE LACS MORRISON
ST. LOUIS SHERBURNE STEARNS
$$
LSZ141-142-143-144-240300-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN
TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 206
VALID 240135Z - 240240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW STC
TO 30 SSW HIB TO 40 ENE ELO TO 25 NE GNA TO 10 SSW GNA TO 20 SSW
DLH TO 30 ESE STC.
..GRAMS..05/24/10
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 206
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC001-009-017-031-059-065-075-095-097-137-141-145-240240-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AITKIN BENTON CARLTON
COOK ISANTI KANABEC
LAKE MILLE LACS MORRISON
ST. LOUIS SHERBURNE STEARNS
$$
LSZ141-142-143-144-240240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN
TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 206
VALID 240035Z - 240140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW GNA
TO 15 SE DLH TO 40 N MSP TO 25 WSW STC TO 25 SSW HIB TO 40 ENE
ELO.
..GRAMS..05/24/10
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 206
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC001-009-017-031-059-065-075-095-097-115-137-141-145-240140-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AITKIN BENTON CARLTON
COOK ISANTI KANABEC
LAKE MILLE LACS MORRISON
PINE ST. LOUIS SHERBURNE
STEARNS
$$
LSZ141-142-143-144-240140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN
TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 206
VALID 232340Z - 240040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW STC
TO 30 SSW HIB TO 20 NE ELO.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 675.
..GRAMS..05/23/10
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 206
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC001-003-009-017-025-031-059-065-075-095-097-115-137-141-145-
240040-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AITKIN ANOKA BENTON
CARLTON CHISAGO COOK
ISANTI KANABEC LAKE
MILLE LACS MORRISON PINE
ST. LOUIS SHERBURNE STEARNS
$$
WIC007-013-031-095-129-240040-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAYFIELD BURNETT DOUGLAS
POLK WASHBURN
$$
LSZ141-142-143-144-145-146-240040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN
TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI
PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 206
VALID 232300Z - 240040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W STC TO
20 NW ELO.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 675.
..GRAMS..05/23/10
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 206
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC001-003-009-017-025-031-035-059-065-075-095-097-115-137-141-
145-240040-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AITKIN ANOKA BENTON
CARLTON CHISAGO COOK
CROW WING ISANTI KANABEC
LAKE MILLE LACS MORRISON
PINE ST. LOUIS SHERBURNE
STEARNS
$$
WIC007-013-031-095-129-240040-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAYFIELD BURNETT DOUGLAS
POLK WASHBURN
$$
LSZ141-142-143-144-145-146-240040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN
TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI
PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.