Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 136
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
910 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
EXTREME SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
EASTERN OKLAHOMA
EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 910 PM
UNTIL 400 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 125 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF HARRISON
ARKANSAS TO 40 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF TEXARKANA ARKANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 135. WATCH NUMBER 135 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
910 PM CDT.
DISCUSSION...SUPERCELL CLUSTERS IN E/SE OK WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO AR
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH STORMS MAINTAINED BY AN INFLUX
OF LOW-MID 60S DEWPOINTS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM THE W.
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS...THUS THE THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND AN
ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO OR TWO WILL REMAIN THROUGH ABOUT 04-05Z
ACROSS SE OK AND EXTREME W CENTRAL/SW AR. OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION
SHOULD GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO A LARGER CLUSTER/MCS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL...THOUGH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH GIVEN A CONTINUATION OF THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 136 TORNADO AR MO OK TX 150210Z - 150900Z
AXIS..125 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
45NW HRO/HARRISON AR/ - 40WSW TXK/TEXARKANA AR/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 110NM E/W /35NNE RZC - 33WSW TXK/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.
REPLACES WW 135..OK TX
LAT...LON 36709147 33209248 33209680 36709598
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 136 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 136
VALID 150635Z - 150740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW TXK
TO 15 NNE RUE TO 35 N HRO.
..KERR..04/15/11
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV...SGF...OUN...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 136
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-011-013-019-023-025-027-029-039-043-045-051-053-057-059-
061-069-073-079-081-085-089-091-097-099-103-105-109-115-119-125-
129-133-137-139-141-145-149-150740-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BRADLEY CALHOUN
CLARK CLEBURNE CLEVELAND
COLUMBIA CONWAY DALLAS
DREW FAULKNER GARLAND
GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING
HOWARD JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE
LINCOLN LITTLE RIVER LONOKE
MARION MILLER MONTGOMERY
NEVADA OUACHITA PERRY
PIKE POPE PULASKI
SALINE SEARCY SEVIER
STONE UNION VAN BUREN
WHITE YELL
$$
MOC067-153-213-150740-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DOUGLAS OZARK TANEY
$$
TXC037-159-343-449-150740-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE FRANKLIN MORRIS
TITUS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 136
VALID 150535Z - 150640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE PRX
TO 35 NNW RUE TO 25 ESE UMN.
..KERR..04/15/11
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV...SGF...OUN...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 136
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-009-011-013-019-023-025-027-029-039-043-045-051-053-057-
059-061-069-071-073-079-081-083-085-089-091-097-099-101-103-105-
109-113-115-119-125-127-129-133-137-139-141-145-149-150640-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BOONE BRADLEY
CALHOUN CLARK CLEBURNE
CLEVELAND COLUMBIA CONWAY
DALLAS DREW FAULKNER
GARLAND GRANT HEMPSTEAD
HOT SPRING HOWARD JEFFERSON
JOHNSON LAFAYETTE LINCOLN
LITTLE RIVER LOGAN LONOKE
MARION MILLER MONTGOMERY
NEVADA NEWTON OUACHITA
PERRY PIKE POLK
POPE PULASKI SALINE
SCOTT SEARCY SEVIER
STONE UNION VAN BUREN
WHITE YELL
$$
MOC009-043-067-109-153-209-213-150640-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY CHRISTIAN DOUGLAS
LAWRENCE OZARK STONE
TANEY
$$
OKC089-150640-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MCCURTAIN
$$
TXC037-159-343-387-449-150640-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE FRANKLIN MORRIS
RED RIVER TITUS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 136
VALID 150445Z - 150540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE DAL TO
5 E RKR TO 5 SW UMN.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 432
..COHEN..04/15/11
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV...SGF...OUN...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 136
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-007-009-011-013-015-019-023-025-027-029-033-039-043-045-
047-051-053-057-059-061-069-071-073-079-081-083-085-087-089-091-
097-099-101-103-105-109-113-115-119-125-127-129-131-133-137-139-
141-143-145-149-150540-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BENTON BOONE
BRADLEY CALHOUN CARROLL
CLARK CLEBURNE CLEVELAND
COLUMBIA CONWAY CRAWFORD
DALLAS DREW FAULKNER
FRANKLIN GARLAND GRANT
HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD
JEFFERSON JOHNSON LAFAYETTE
LINCOLN LITTLE RIVER LOGAN
LONOKE MADISON MARION
MILLER MONTGOMERY NEVADA
NEWTON OUACHITA PERRY
PIKE POLK POPE
PULASKI SALINE SCOTT
SEARCY SEBASTIAN SEVIER
STONE UNION VAN BUREN
WASHINGTON WHITE YELL
$$
MOC009-043-067-109-119-145-153-209-213-150540-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY CHRISTIAN DOUGLAS
LAWRENCE MCDONALD NEWTON
OZARK STONE TANEY
$$
OKC023-079-089-127-150540-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHOCTAW LE FLORE MCCURTAIN
PUSHMATAHA
$$
TXC037-119-147-159-181-277-343-387-449-150540-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE DELTA FANNIN
FRANKLIN GRAYSON LAMAR
MORRIS RED RIVER TITUS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 136
VALID 150335Z - 150440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W MLC TO
35 NNW MLC TO 20 E BVO.
..COHEN..04/15/11
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV...SGF...OUN...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 136
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-007-009-011-013-015-019-023-025-027-029-033-039-043-045-
047-051-053-057-059-061-069-071-073-079-081-083-085-087-089-091-
097-099-101-103-105-109-113-115-119-125-127-129-131-133-137-139-
141-143-145-149-150440-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BENTON BOONE
BRADLEY CALHOUN CARROLL
CLARK CLEBURNE CLEVELAND
COLUMBIA CONWAY CRAWFORD
DALLAS DREW FAULKNER
FRANKLIN GARLAND GRANT
HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD
JEFFERSON JOHNSON LAFAYETTE
LINCOLN LITTLE RIVER LOGAN
LONOKE MADISON MARION
MILLER MONTGOMERY NEVADA
NEWTON OUACHITA PERRY
PIKE POLK POPE
PULASKI SALINE SCOTT
SEARCY SEBASTIAN SEVIER
STONE UNION VAN BUREN
WASHINGTON WHITE YELL
$$
MOC009-043-067-109-119-145-153-209-213-150440-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY CHRISTIAN DOUGLAS
LAWRENCE MCDONALD NEWTON
OZARK STONE TANEY
$$
OKC001-005-013-021-023-029-041-061-069-077-079-089-095-097-101-
111-121-127-131-135-145-150440-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN
CHEROKEE CHOCTAW COAL
DELAWARE HASKELL JOHNSTON
LATIMER LE FLORE MCCURTAIN
MARSHALL MAYES MUSKOGEE
OKMULGEE PITTSBURG PUSHMATAHA
ROGERS SEQUOYAH WAGONER
$$
TXC037-119-147-159-181-277-343-387-449-150440-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE DELTA FANNIN
FRANKLIN GRAYSON LAMAR
MORRIS RED RIVER TITUS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
High (80%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (50%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (40%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (>95%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
High (70%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.