Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 524
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
310 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA
MUCH OF EASTERN KANSAS
SMALL PART OF NORTHWEST MISSOURI
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 310 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
TEKAMAH NEBRASKA TO 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF WICHITA KANSAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 523...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL ERUPT ALONG THE DRY LINE AS CAP HAS
ABOUT ERODED WITH THE ASCENT FROM THE APPROACHING STRONG TROUGH.
WITH MLCAPES AOA 2500 J/KG AND 50-60KT OF SHEAR...SUPERCELLS WILL BE
THE INITIAL MODE WHICH INCLUDES A VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
THREAT. TORNADOS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL. STORMS WILL
GROW UPSCALE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR A
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 524 TORNADO IA KS MO NE 202010Z - 210300Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
25NNE TQE/TEKAMAH NE/ - 45SSE ICT/WICHITA KS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /57N OVR - 48SSE ICT/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
LAT...LON 42099480 37049602 37049820 42099715
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 524 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 524
VALID 210030Z - 210140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE P28
TO 15 NW SLN.
..KERR..06/21/11
ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...TOP...ICT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 524
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC005-013-015-017-019-027-029-031-035-041-043-049-061-073-085-
087-111-115-117-125-127-131-139-143-149-157-161-177-191-197-201-
205-207-210140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON BROWN BUTLER
CHASE CHAUTAUQUA CLAY
CLOUD COFFEY COWLEY
DICKINSON DONIPHAN ELK
GEARY GREENWOOD JACKSON
JEFFERSON LYON MARION
MARSHALL MONTGOMERY MORRIS
NEMAHA OSAGE OTTAWA
POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC RILEY
SHAWNEE SUMNER WABAUNSEE
WASHINGTON WILSON WOODSON
$$
MOC005-087-210140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON HOLT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 524
VALID 210030Z - 210140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..06/21/11
ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...TOP...ICT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 524
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC009-027-029-047-071-085-129-133-137-145-155-165-210140-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUDUBON CARROLL CASS
CRAWFORD FREMONT HARRISON
MILLS MONONA MONTGOMERY
PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE SHELBY
$$
KSC005-013-015-017-019-027-029-031-035-041-043-049-061-073-077-
079-085-087-095-111-113-115-117-125-127-131-139-143-149-155-157-
161-169-173-177-191-197-201-205-207-210140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON BROWN BUTLER
CHASE CHAUTAUQUA CLAY
CLOUD COFFEY COWLEY
DICKINSON DONIPHAN ELK
GEARY GREENWOOD HARPER
HARVEY JACKSON JEFFERSON
KINGMAN LYON MCPHERSON
MARION MARSHALL MONTGOMERY
MORRIS NEMAHA OSAGE
OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE RENO
REPUBLIC RILEY SALINE
SEDGWICK SHAWNEE SUMNER
WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON WILSON
WOODSON
$$
MOC005-087-210140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON HOLT
$$
NEC021-025-053-055-067-095-097-109-127-131-133-147-151-153-155-
159-173-177-210140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BURT CASS DODGE
DOUGLAS GAGE JEFFERSON
JOHNSON LANCASTER NEMAHA
OTOE PAWNEE RICHARDSON
SALINE SARPY SAUNDERS
SEWARD THURSTON WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 524
VALID 202325Z - 210040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..06/20/11
ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...TOP...ICT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 524
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC009-027-029-047-071-085-129-133-137-145-155-165-210040-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUDUBON CARROLL CASS
CRAWFORD FREMONT HARRISON
MILLS MONONA MONTGOMERY
PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE SHELBY
$$
KSC005-013-015-017-019-027-029-031-035-041-043-049-061-073-077-
079-085-087-095-111-113-115-117-125-127-131-139-143-149-155-157-
161-169-173-177-191-197-201-205-207-210040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON BROWN BUTLER
CHASE CHAUTAUQUA CLAY
CLOUD COFFEY COWLEY
DICKINSON DONIPHAN ELK
GEARY GREENWOOD HARPER
HARVEY JACKSON JEFFERSON
KINGMAN LYON MCPHERSON
MARION MARSHALL MONTGOMERY
MORRIS NEMAHA OSAGE
OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE RENO
REPUBLIC RILEY SALINE
SEDGWICK SHAWNEE SUMNER
WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON WILSON
WOODSON
$$
MOC005-087-210040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON HOLT
$$
NEC021-025-053-055-067-095-097-109-127-131-133-147-151-153-155-
159-173-177-210040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BURT CASS DODGE
DOUGLAS GAGE JEFFERSON
JOHNSON LANCASTER NEMAHA
OTOE PAWNEE RICHARDSON
SALINE SARPY SAUNDERS
SEWARD THURSTON WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 524
VALID 202240Z - 202340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..06/20/11
ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...TOP...ICT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 524
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC009-027-029-047-071-085-129-133-137-145-155-165-202340-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUDUBON CARROLL CASS
CRAWFORD FREMONT HARRISON
MILLS MONONA MONTGOMERY
PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE SHELBY
$$
KSC005-013-015-017-019-027-029-031-035-041-043-049-061-073-077-
079-085-087-095-111-113-115-117-125-127-131-139-143-149-155-157-
161-169-173-177-191-197-201-205-207-202340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON BROWN BUTLER
CHASE CHAUTAUQUA CLAY
CLOUD COFFEY COWLEY
DICKINSON DONIPHAN ELK
GEARY GREENWOOD HARPER
HARVEY JACKSON JEFFERSON
KINGMAN LYON MCPHERSON
MARION MARSHALL MONTGOMERY
MORRIS NEMAHA OSAGE
OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE RENO
REPUBLIC RILEY SALINE
SEDGWICK SHAWNEE SUMNER
WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON WILSON
WOODSON
$$
MOC005-087-202340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON HOLT
$$
NEC021-025-053-055-067-095-097-109-127-131-133-147-151-153-155-
159-173-177-202340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BURT CASS DODGE
DOUGLAS GAGE JEFFERSON
JOHNSON LANCASTER NEMAHA
OTOE PAWNEE RICHARDSON
SALINE SARPY SAUNDERS
SEWARD THURSTON WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 524
VALID 202130Z - 202240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..06/20/11
ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...TOP...ICT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 524
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC009-027-029-047-071-085-129-133-137-145-155-165-202240-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUDUBON CARROLL CASS
CRAWFORD FREMONT HARRISON
MILLS MONONA MONTGOMERY
PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE SHELBY
$$
KSC005-013-015-017-019-027-029-031-035-041-043-049-061-073-077-
079-085-087-095-111-113-115-117-125-127-131-139-143-149-155-157-
161-169-173-177-191-197-201-205-207-202240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON BROWN BUTLER
CHASE CHAUTAUQUA CLAY
CLOUD COFFEY COWLEY
DICKINSON DONIPHAN ELK
GEARY GREENWOOD HARPER
HARVEY JACKSON JEFFERSON
KINGMAN LYON MCPHERSON
MARION MARSHALL MONTGOMERY
MORRIS NEMAHA OSAGE
OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE RENO
REPUBLIC RILEY SALINE
SEDGWICK SHAWNEE SUMNER
WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON WILSON
WOODSON
$$
MOC005-087-202240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON HOLT
$$
NEC021-025-053-055-067-095-097-109-127-131-133-147-151-153-155-
159-173-177-202240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BURT CASS DODGE
DOUGLAS GAGE JEFFERSON
JOHNSON LANCASTER NEMAHA
OTOE PAWNEE RICHARDSON
SALINE SARPY SAUNDERS
SEWARD THURSTON WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (90%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
High (90%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (90%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
High (80%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.