Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 280
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
120 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN CONNECTICUT
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS
WESTERN MAINE
MUCH OF NEW HAMPSHIRE
EASTERN NEW YORK
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
VERMONT
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 120 PM UNTIL
900 PM EDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 110
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF
NEWPORT VERMONT TO 20 MILES SOUTH OF MONTICELLO NEW YORK. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NY/NORTHEAST PA AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING COUPLED WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
CAPE VALUES AND LITTLE CINH. SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26030.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW0
WW 280 SEVERE TSTM CT MA ME NH NY PA VT 161720Z - 170100Z
AXIS..110 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
25NW EFK/NEWPORT VT/ - 20S MSV/MONTICELLO NY/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 95NM E/W /42WSW YSC - 24NNW SAX/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030.
LAT...LON 45137033 41387268 41387691 45137484
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.
Watch 280 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 280
VALID 170025Z - 170140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE AVP
TO 30 WNW EEN TO 50 NNE BML.
..ROGERS..05/17/12
ATTN...WFO...BOX...ALY...GYX...BGM...BTV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 280
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
CTC003-005-170140-
CT
. CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HARTFORD LITCHFIELD
$$
MEC007-017-170140-
ME
. MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FRANKLIN OXFORD
$$
MAC003-011-013-015-017-027-170140-
MA
. MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKSHIRE FRANKLIN HAMPDEN
HAMPSHIRE MIDDLESEX WORCESTER
$$
NHC003-005-007-009-011-019-170140-
NH
. NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL CHESHIRE COOS
GRAFTON HILLSBOROUGH SULLIVAN
$$
NYC021-027-111-170140-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLUMBIA DUTCHESS ULSTER
$$
VTC025-170140-
VT
. VERMONT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
WINDHAM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 280
VALID 162240Z - 162340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW AVP
TO 5 NNW ALB TO 45 NNW BML.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 826
..ROGERS..05/16/12
ATTN...WFO...BOX...ALY...GYX...BGM...BTV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 280
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
CTC003-005-162340-
CT
. CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HARTFORD LITCHFIELD
$$
MEC007-017-162340-
ME
. MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FRANKLIN OXFORD
$$
MAC003-011-013-015-162340-
MA
. MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKSHIRE FRANKLIN HAMPDEN
HAMPSHIRE
$$
NHC003-005-007-009-019-162340-
NH
. NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL CHESHIRE COOS
GRAFTON SULLIVAN
$$
NYC001-021-027-039-083-111-115-162340-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALBANY COLUMBIA DUTCHESS
GREENE RENSSELAER ULSTER
WASHINGTON
$$
VTC003-005-009-017-021-025-027-162340-
VT
. VERMONT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNINGTON CALEDONIA ESSEX
ORANGE RUTLAND WINDHAM
WINDSOR
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 280
VALID 162235Z - 162340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..ROGERS..05/16/12
ATTN...WFO...BOX...ALY...GYX...BGM...BTV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 280
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
CTC003-005-162340-
CT
. CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HARTFORD LITCHFIELD
$$
MEC007-017-162340-
ME
. MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FRANKLIN OXFORD
$$
MAC003-011-013-015-162340-
MA
. MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKSHIRE FRANKLIN HAMPDEN
HAMPSHIRE
$$
NHC003-005-007-009-019-162340-
NH
. NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL CHESHIRE COOS
GRAFTON SULLIVAN
$$
NYC001-021-025-027-039-083-105-111-115-162340-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALBANY COLUMBIA DELAWARE
DUTCHESS GREENE RENSSELAER
SULLIVAN ULSTER WASHINGTON
$$
PAC069-079-103-127-131-162340-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LACKAWANNA LUZERNE PIKE
WAYNE WYOMING
$$
VTC003-005-009-017-021-025-027-162340-
VT
. VERMONT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNINGTON CALEDONIA ESSEX
ORANGE RUTLAND WINDHAM
WINDSOR
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 280
VALID 162135Z - 162240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S ELM TO
20 S BGM TO 25 W ALB TO 35 NW RUT TO 30 NNE EFK.
..ROGERS..05/16/12
ATTN...WFO...BOX...ALY...GYX...BGM...BTV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 280
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
CTC003-005-162240-
CT
. CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HARTFORD LITCHFIELD
$$
MEC007-017-162240-
ME
. MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FRANKLIN OXFORD
$$
MAC003-011-013-015-162240-
MA
. MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKSHIRE FRANKLIN HAMPDEN
HAMPSHIRE
$$
NHC003-005-007-009-019-162240-
NH
. NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL CHESHIRE COOS
GRAFTON SULLIVAN
$$
NYC001-021-025-027-039-083-091-093-095-105-111-115-162240-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALBANY COLUMBIA DELAWARE
DUTCHESS GREENE RENSSELAER
SARATOGA SCHENECTADY SCHOHARIE
SULLIVAN ULSTER WASHINGTON
$$
PAC015-069-079-103-115-127-131-162240-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRADFORD LACKAWANNA LUZERNE
PIKE SUSQUEHANNA WAYNE
WYOMING
$$
VTC001-003-005-007-009-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-162240-
VT
. VERMONT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADDISON BENNINGTON CALEDONIA
CHITTENDEN ESSEX LAMOILLE
ORANGE ORLEANS RUTLAND
WASHINGTON WINDHAM WINDSOR
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 280
VALID 162100Z - 162240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE ELM TO
10 WSW BGM TO 35 NE UCA TO 40 WNW GFL TO 40 SSW BTV TO 10 NE BTV
TO 30 NW EFK.
..JEWELL..05/16/12
ATTN...WFO...BOX...ALY...GYX...BGM...BTV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 280
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
CTC003-005-162240-
CT
. CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HARTFORD LITCHFIELD
$$
MEC007-017-162240-
ME
. MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FRANKLIN OXFORD
$$
MAC003-011-013-015-162240-
MA
. MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKSHIRE FRANKLIN HAMPDEN
HAMPSHIRE
$$
NHC003-005-007-009-019-162240-
NH
. NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL CHESHIRE COOS
GRAFTON SULLIVAN
$$
NYC001-021-025-027-031-035-039-041-043-057-077-083-091-093-095-
105-111-113-115-162240-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALBANY COLUMBIA DELAWARE
DUTCHESS ESSEX FULTON
GREENE HAMILTON HERKIMER
MONTGOMERY OTSEGO RENSSELAER
SARATOGA SCHENECTADY SCHOHARIE
SULLIVAN ULSTER WARREN
WASHINGTON
$$
PAC015-069-079-103-115-127-131-162240-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRADFORD LACKAWANNA LUZERNE
PIKE SUSQUEHANNA WAYNE
WYOMING
$$
VTC001-003-005-007-009-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-162240-
VT
. VERMONT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADDISON BENNINGTON CALEDONIA
CHITTENDEN ESSEX LAMOILLE
ORANGE ORLEANS RUTLAND
WASHINGTON WINDHAM WINDSOR
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 280
VALID 161825Z - 161940Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..JEWELL..05/16/12
ATTN...WFO...BOX...ALY...GYX...BGM...BTV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 280
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
CTC003-005-161940-
CT
. CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HARTFORD LITCHFIELD
$$
MEC007-017-161940-
ME
. MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FRANKLIN OXFORD
$$
MAC003-011-013-015-161940-
MA
. MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKSHIRE FRANKLIN HAMPDEN
HAMPSHIRE
$$
NHC003-005-007-009-019-161940-
NH
. NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL CHESHIRE COOS
GRAFTON SULLIVAN
$$
NYC001-007-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-031-033-035-039-041-043-
053-057-065-077-083-089-091-093-095-105-107-109-111-113-115-
161940-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALBANY BROOME CHEMUNG
CHENANGO CLINTON COLUMBIA
CORTLAND DELAWARE DUTCHESS
ESSEX FRANKLIN FULTON
GREENE HAMILTON HERKIMER
MADISON MONTGOMERY ONEIDA
OTSEGO RENSSELAER ST. LAWRENCE
SARATOGA SCHENECTADY SCHOHARIE
SULLIVAN TIOGA TOMPKINS
ULSTER WARREN WASHINGTON
$$
PAC015-069-079-103-115-127-131-161940-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRADFORD LACKAWANNA LUZERNE
PIKE SUSQUEHANNA WAYNE
WYOMING
$$
VTC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-
161940-
VT
. VERMONT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADDISON BENNINGTON CALEDONIA
CHITTENDEN ESSEX FRANKLIN
GRAND ISLE LAMOILLE ORANGE
ORLEANS RUTLAND WASHINGTON
WINDHAM WINDSOR
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (80%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.