Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 281
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
325 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST IOWA
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 325 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 75
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF TEKAMAH NEBRASKA TO 30 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
MEDICINE LODGE KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KS
ALONG A COLD FRONT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN
ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STRONG
HEATING COUPLED WITH FOCUSED UPWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WEAKENING THE CAP WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING NWD INTO PARTS
OF NEB. STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF 1500-2000
J/KG...AND 30-40 KT SHEAR WILL ENHANCE STORM INTENSITY AND
ORGANIZATION. LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH STRONGER CELLS...AND
PRESENCE OF A RELATIVELY DEEP AND WELL-MIXED PBL WILL PROMOTE SEVERE
WIND GUSTS AS WELL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24025.
...WEISS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 281 SEVERE TSTM IA KS NE 192025Z - 200300Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
25WNW TQE/TEKAMAH NE/ - 30ESE P28/MEDICINE LODGE KS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM E/W /59NW OVR - 44SSW ICT/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24025.
LAT...LON 41909536 37119690 37119926 41909787
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 281 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 281
VALID 200135Z - 200240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N AVK TO
5 SSW HUT TO 35 WSW BIE TO 10 E OFK.
..ROGERS..05/20/12
ATTN...WFO...OAX...DDC...ICT...TOP...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 281
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC071-085-129-133-155-165-200240-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FREMONT HARRISON MILLS
MONONA POTTAWATTAMIE SHELBY
$$
KSC015-017-019-027-035-041-049-061-073-077-079-095-113-115-117-
127-149-155-161-169-173-191-201-200240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA
CLAY COWLEY DICKINSON
ELK GEARY GREENWOOD
HARPER HARVEY KINGMAN
MCPHERSON MARION MARSHALL
MORRIS POTTAWATOMIE RENO
RILEY SALINE SEDGWICK
SUMNER WASHINGTON
$$
NEC021-023-025-037-039-053-055-067-095-097-109-127-131-133-141-
151-153-155-159-167-173-177-200240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BURT BUTLER CASS
COLFAX CUMING DODGE
DOUGLAS GAGE JEFFERSON
JOHNSON LANCASTER NEMAHA
OTOE PAWNEE PLATTE
SALINE SARPY SAUNDERS
SEWARD STANTON THURSTON
WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 281
VALID 200055Z - 200140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N AVK TO
35 NE P28 TO 40 SE HSI TO 5 SE GRI.
..ROGERS..05/20/12
ATTN...WFO...OAX...DDC...ICT...TOP...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 281
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC071-085-129-133-155-165-200140-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FREMONT HARRISON MILLS
MONONA POTTAWATTAMIE SHELBY
$$
KSC015-017-019-027-029-035-041-049-061-073-077-079-095-113-115-
117-127-143-149-155-157-161-169-173-191-201-200140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA
CLAY CLOUD COWLEY
DICKINSON ELK GEARY
GREENWOOD HARPER HARVEY
KINGMAN MCPHERSON MARION
MARSHALL MORRIS OTTAWA
POTTAWATOMIE RENO REPUBLIC
RILEY SALINE SEDGWICK
SUMNER WASHINGTON
$$
NEC021-023-025-035-037-039-053-055-059-067-081-095-097-109-127-
131-133-141-143-151-153-155-159-167-169-173-177-185-200140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BURT BUTLER CASS
CLAY COLFAX CUMING
DODGE DOUGLAS FILLMORE
GAGE HAMILTON JEFFERSON
JOHNSON LANCASTER NEMAHA
OTOE PAWNEE PLATTE
POLK SALINE SARPY
SAUNDERS SEWARD STANTON
THAYER THURSTON WASHINGTON
YORK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 281
VALID 192350Z - 200040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW AVK
TO 30 NE P28 TO 5 ESE HSI.
..ROGERS..05/19/12
ATTN...WFO...OAX...DDC...ICT...TOP...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 281
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC071-085-129-133-155-165-200040-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FREMONT HARRISON MILLS
MONONA POTTAWATTAMIE SHELBY
$$
KSC007-015-017-027-029-041-053-061-077-079-089-095-105-113-115-
117-123-127-143-149-155-157-159-161-169-173-191-201-200040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER BUTLER CHASE
CLAY CLOUD DICKINSON
ELLSWORTH GEARY HARPER
HARVEY JEWELL KINGMAN
LINCOLN MCPHERSON MARION
MARSHALL MITCHELL MORRIS
OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE RENO
REPUBLIC RICE RILEY
SALINE SEDGWICK SUMNER
WASHINGTON
$$
NEC001-021-023-025-035-037-039-053-055-059-067-081-095-097-109-
127-129-131-133-141-143-151-153-155-159-167-169-173-177-181-185-
200040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BURT BUTLER
CASS CLAY COLFAX
CUMING DODGE DOUGLAS
FILLMORE GAGE HAMILTON
JEFFERSON JOHNSON LANCASTER
NEMAHA NUCKOLLS OTOE
PAWNEE PLATTE POLK
SALINE SARPY SAUNDERS
SEWARD STANTON THAYER
THURSTON WASHINGTON WEBSTER
YORK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 281
VALID 192235Z - 192340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW AVK TO
25 NNE P28 TO 15 S HSI.
..ROGERS..05/19/12
ATTN...WFO...OAX...DDC...ICT...TOP...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 281
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC071-085-129-133-155-165-192340-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FREMONT HARRISON MILLS
MONONA POTTAWATTAMIE SHELBY
$$
KSC007-015-017-027-029-041-053-061-077-079-089-095-105-113-115-
117-123-127-143-149-155-157-159-161-169-173-191-201-192340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER BUTLER CHASE
CLAY CLOUD DICKINSON
ELLSWORTH GEARY HARPER
HARVEY JEWELL KINGMAN
LINCOLN MCPHERSON MARION
MARSHALL MITCHELL MORRIS
OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE RENO
REPUBLIC RICE RILEY
SALINE SEDGWICK SUMNER
WASHINGTON
$$
NEC001-021-023-025-035-037-039-053-055-059-067-081-095-097-109-
127-129-131-133-141-143-151-153-155-159-167-169-173-177-181-185-
192340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BURT BUTLER
CASS CLAY COLFAX
CUMING DODGE DOUGLAS
FILLMORE GAGE HAMILTON
JEFFERSON JOHNSON LANCASTER
NEMAHA NUCKOLLS OTOE
PAWNEE PLATTE POLK
SALINE SARPY SAUNDERS
SEWARD STANTON THAYER
THURSTON WASHINGTON WEBSTER
YORK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 281
VALID 192140Z - 192240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..ROGERS..05/19/12
ATTN...WFO...OAX...DDC...ICT...TOP...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 281
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC071-085-129-133-155-165-192240-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FREMONT HARRISON MILLS
MONONA POTTAWATTAMIE SHELBY
$$
KSC007-009-015-017-027-029-041-053-061-077-079-089-095-105-113-
115-117-123-127-141-143-149-151-155-157-159-161-167-169-173-183-
185-191-201-192240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER BARTON BUTLER
CHASE CLAY CLOUD
DICKINSON ELLSWORTH GEARY
HARPER HARVEY JEWELL
KINGMAN LINCOLN MCPHERSON
MARION MARSHALL MITCHELL
MORRIS OSBORNE OTTAWA
POTTAWATOMIE PRATT RENO
REPUBLIC RICE RILEY
RUSSELL SALINE SEDGWICK
SMITH STAFFORD SUMNER
WASHINGTON
$$
NEC001-021-023-025-035-037-039-053-055-059-067-081-095-097-109-
127-129-131-133-141-143-151-153-155-159-167-169-173-177-181-185-
192240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BURT BUTLER
CASS CLAY COLFAX
CUMING DODGE DOUGLAS
FILLMORE GAGE HAMILTON
JEFFERSON JOHNSON LANCASTER
NEMAHA NUCKOLLS OTOE
PAWNEE PLATTE POLK
SALINE SARPY SAUNDERS
SEWARD STANTON THAYER
THURSTON WASHINGTON WEBSTER
YORK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.