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Severe Thunderstorm Watch 281
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WW0281 Radar
Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Low Very Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Moderate Low

Note:  The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
   SEL1
   
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 281
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   325 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          SOUTHWEST IOWA
          CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
          SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 325 PM UNTIL
   1000 PM CDT.
   
   HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 75
   MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
   STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST
   NORTHWEST OF TEKAMAH NEBRASKA TO 30 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
   MEDICINE LODGE KANSAS.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
   THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
   
   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
   
   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KS
   ALONG A COLD FRONT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN
   ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  STRONG
   HEATING COUPLED WITH FOCUSED UPWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
   WEAKENING THE CAP WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING NWD INTO PARTS
   OF NEB.  STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF 1500-2000
   J/KG...AND 30-40 KT SHEAR WILL ENHANCE STORM INTENSITY AND
   ORGANIZATION.  LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH STRONGER CELLS...AND
   PRESENCE OF A RELATIVELY DEEP AND WELL-MIXED PBL WILL PROMOTE SEVERE
   WIND GUSTS AS WELL.
   
   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65
   KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
   MOTION VECTOR 24025.
   
   
   ...WEISS
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