Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 298
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
650 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT FROM 650 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
RUSSELL KANSAS TO 45 MILES NORTH OF RUSSELL KANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING TO THE
NORTHEAST OF A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST KS. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
VERTICAL SHEAR TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...COUPLED WITH HIGH
CAPE VALUES WILL PROMOTE THE RISK OF INTENSE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH A MITIGATING FACTOR IS THE WARM TEMPERATURES IN
THE EML AND RATHER WEAK LOW LEVEL CAPE VALUES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26025.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 298 TORNADO KS 252350Z - 260500Z
AXIS..45 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
55SSW RSL/RUSSELL KS/ - 45N RSL/RUSSELL KS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 40NM E/W /73E GCK - 66WNW SLN/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26025.
LAT...LON 38110004 39509966 39509798 38119837
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 298 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 298
VALID 260335Z - 260440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N DDC TO
45 WSW RSL TO 50 N RSL.
..GOSS..05/26/12
ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 298
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC009-051-053-105-123-141-159-165-167-260440-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON ELLIS ELLSWORTH
LINCOLN MITCHELL OSBORNE
RICE RUSH RUSSELL
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (80%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.