Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 529
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
630 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY
FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA
SOUTHWEST WEST VIRGINIA
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 630 PM
UNTIL 200 AM EDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF LEXINGTON KENTUCKY TO 50 MILES EAST OF HUNTINGTON WEST
VIRGINIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 524...WW 525...WW
526...WW 527...WW 528...
DISCUSSION...EXPANSIVE QLCS ONGOING OVER THE OH VALLEY IS EXPECTED
TO PROGRESS SEWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS EVENING. INFLOW AIR
MASS IS HOT AND MOIST WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG...SUPPORTIVE OF
VIGOROUS UPDRAFT GROWTH ON LEADING EDGE OF SYSTEM COLD POOL.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29030.
...MEAD
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 529 SEVERE TSTM KY VA WV 262230Z - 270600Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
35SW LEX/LEXINGTON KY/ - 50E HTS/HUNTINGTON WV/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM N/S /36SE LOU - 30SE HNN/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29030.
LAT...LON 38388505 39088162 37638162 36958505
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 529 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 529
VALID 270335Z - 270440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW HTS
TO 10 N CRW.
..GUYER..07/27/12
ATTN...WFO...JKL...RLX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 529
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC025-051-065-071-109-115-119-125-129-131-133-153-159-189-193-
195-199-203-237-270440-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BREATHITT CLAY ESTILL
FLOYD JACKSON JOHNSON
KNOTT LAUREL LEE
LESLIE LETCHER MAGOFFIN
MARTIN OWSLEY PERRY
PIKE PULASKI ROCKCASTLE
WOLFE
$$
VAC027-051-270440-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUCHANAN DICKENSON
$$
WVC045-047-059-081-109-270440-
WV
. WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LOGAN MCDOWELL MINGO
RALEIGH WYOMING
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.