Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 171
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
320 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 320 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS LIKELY WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
ALVA OKLAHOMA TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF ABILENE TEXAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 170...
DISCUSSION...SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE NEAR THE DRYLINE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE BORDER
AREA... SOUTHWARD ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS...TOWARD THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU...DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS INHIBITION WEAKENS IN
PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL POSE A RISK FOR
VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES...BEFORE ACTIVITY GROWS UPSCALE
THIS EVENING...WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL PERHAPS BECOMING MORE
PROMINENT. AS LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BECOME CLOCKWISE CURVED AND
QUITE LARGE THIS EVENING...AND BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
INCREASES WITH DIURNAL COOLING...A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY MAY EXIST
FOR A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO...BEFORE CONVECTION CONSOLIDATES INTO
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.
...KERR
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 171 TORNADO OK TX 182020Z - 190400Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
25ENE AVK/ALVA OK/ - 30SSE ABI/ABILENE TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /37NNW END - 34SE ABI/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.
LAT...LON 36909688 32009819 32000076 36909961
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 171 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 171
VALID 190325Z - 190400Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW ABI TO
60 NNW ABI TO 50 NNW GAG.
WW 171 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 190400Z.
..MARSH..05/19/13
ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...SJT...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 171
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC003-009-011-015-017-027-031-033-039-043-045-047-049-051-053-
055-057-059-065-067-071-073-075-081-083-087-093-103-109-119-125-
129-137-141-149-151-153-190400-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA BECKHAM BLAINE
CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND
COMANCHE COTTON CUSTER
DEWEY ELLIS GARFIELD
GARVIN GRADY GRANT
GREER HARMON HARPER
JACKSON JEFFERSON KAY
KINGFISHER KIOWA LINCOLN
LOGAN MCCLAIN MAJOR
NOBLE OKLAHOMA PAYNE
POTTAWATOMIE ROGER MILLS STEPHENS
TILLMAN WASHITA WOODS
WOODWARD
$$
TXC009-023-059-077-151-155-197-207-253-275-353-417-441-447-485-
487-190400-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR CALLAHAN
CLAY FISHER FOARD
HARDEMAN HASKELL JONES
KNOX NOLAN SHACKELFORD
TAYLOR THROCKMORTON WICHITA
WILBARGER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 171
VALID 190220Z - 190340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW ABI TO
60 NNW ABI TO 50 NNW GAG.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 685
..MARSH..05/19/13
ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...SJT...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 171
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC003-009-011-015-017-027-031-033-039-043-045-047-049-051-053-
055-057-059-065-067-071-073-075-081-083-087-093-103-109-119-125-
129-137-141-149-151-153-190340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA BECKHAM BLAINE
CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND
COMANCHE COTTON CUSTER
DEWEY ELLIS GARFIELD
GARVIN GRADY GRANT
GREER HARMON HARPER
JACKSON JEFFERSON KAY
KINGFISHER KIOWA LINCOLN
LOGAN MCCLAIN MAJOR
NOBLE OKLAHOMA PAYNE
POTTAWATOMIE ROGER MILLS STEPHENS
TILLMAN WASHITA WOODS
WOODWARD
$$
TXC009-023-049-059-077-081-083-151-155-197-207-253-275-353-399-
417-441-447-485-487-190340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR BROWN
CALLAHAN CLAY COKE
COLEMAN FISHER FOARD
HARDEMAN HASKELL JONES
KNOX NOLAN RUNNELS
SHACKELFORD TAYLOR THROCKMORTON
WICHITA WILBARGER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 171
VALID 182255Z - 182340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 680
..SMITH..05/18/13
ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...SJT...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 171
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC003-007-009-011-015-017-027-031-033-039-043-045-047-049-051-
053-055-057-059-065-067-071-073-075-081-083-087-093-103-109-119-
125-129-137-141-149-151-153-182340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA BEAVER BECKHAM
BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN
CLEVELAND COMANCHE COTTON
CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS
GARFIELD GARVIN GRADY
GRANT GREER HARMON
HARPER JACKSON JEFFERSON
KAY KINGFISHER KIOWA
LINCOLN LOGAN MCCLAIN
MAJOR NOBLE OKLAHOMA
PAYNE POTTAWATOMIE ROGER MILLS
STEPHENS TILLMAN WASHITA
WOODS WOODWARD
$$
TXC009-023-049-059-075-077-081-083-087-101-151-155-197-207-211-
253-269-275-295-353-399-417-433-441-447-483-485-487-182340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR BROWN
CALLAHAN CHILDRESS CLAY
COKE COLEMAN COLLINGSWORTH
COTTLE FISHER FOARD
HARDEMAN HASKELL HEMPHILL
JONES KING KNOX
LIPSCOMB NOLAN RUNNELS
SHACKELFORD STONEWALL TAYLOR
THROCKMORTON WHEELER WICHITA
WILBARGER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.