Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 177
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 1100 PM
UNTIL 300 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BARTLESVILLE OKLAHOMA TO 30 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF ARDMORE
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 171. WATCH NUMBER 171 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT
AFTER 1100 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 170...WW 172...WW 173...WW
174...WW 175...WW 176...
DISCUSSION...LOOSELY-ORGANIZED SQLN/MCS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
GENERALLY ENE ACROSS CNTRL OK THROUGH EARLY SUN...WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLY CONTINUING ATOP COLD POOL IN ITS WAKE. WHILE
SLOWLY-INCREASING CIN SHOULD MITIGATE UPDRAFT STRENGTH WITH
TIME...GIVEN DEEP EML SAMPLED BY OUN 00Z RAOB...AND VERY
MOIST...40-50 KT SSWLY 1 KM FLOW...SETUP MAY YIELD ADDITIONAL STRONG
TO DMGG WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ON ERN/SRN EDGE OF ASSOCIATED
LARGE-SCALE GUST FRONT.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 24030.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 177 SEVERE TSTM OK 190400Z - 190800Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
25NE BVO/BARTLESVILLE OK/ - 30WSW ADM/ARDMORE OK/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM E/W /25WSW OSW - 17WSW ADM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.
REPLACES WW 171..OK TX
LAT...LON 37029451 34119637 34119863 37029687
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 177 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 177
VALID 190655Z - 190740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW MKO
TO 30 ENE TUL TO 40 NW GMJ.
..PETERS..05/19/13
ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 177
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC035-097-145-190740-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAIG MAYES WAGONER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 177
VALID 190550Z - 190640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW MLC TO
45 WNW MLC TO 20 ENE CQB TO 30 SE END.
..PETERS..05/19/13
ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 177
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC029-035-037-063-097-105-107-111-113-117-119-131-143-145-147-
190640-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COAL CRAIG CREEK
HUGHES MAYES NOWATA
OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE OSAGE
PAWNEE PAYNE ROGERS
TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
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