Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 193
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
525 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ILLINOIS
EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI
* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 525 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE
NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS LIKELY WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 95 MILES WEST OF SAINT LOUIS
MISSOURI TO 15 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF SPRINGFIELD ILLINOIS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 189...WW 190...WW
191...WW 192...
DISCUSSION...SUPERCELL COMPLEX NOW OVER CNTRL MO /ABOUT 40 E OF
SEDALIA/ IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ENEWD. SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX ALONG AND S OF
DIFFUSE W-E OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY N
ACROSS NE MO/CNTRL IL...AND IS NOW APPROACHING THE QUINCY AREA.
FARTHER S...LONG-LIVED...DISCRETE SUPERCELL NOW NEAR ROLLA MO SHOULD
ALSO MOVE ENEWD. COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW-LVL
MOISTURE...NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF SSWLY LLJ...AND PRESENCE OF
EXISTING ROTATING STORMS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY FOR TORNADOES IN
ADDITION TO BOWING SEGMENTS WITH HIGH WIND AND LARGE HAIL.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 193 TORNADO IL MO 202225Z - 210600Z
AXIS..90 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF LINE..
95W STL/SAINT LOUIS MO/ - 15ENE SPI/SPRINGFIELD IL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM EITHER SIDE /6SE COU - 28WNW AXC/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
LAT...LON 39939280 41139009 38728876 37549148
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 193 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 193
VALID 210455Z - 210540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE BLV
TO 40 N SLO.
..SMITH..05/21/13
ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...DVN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 193
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC027-051-121-189-210540-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLINTON FAYETTE MARION
WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 193
VALID 210245Z - 210340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 W VIH TO
25 NW STL TO 25 SSW SPI TO 15 SSW PIA.
..MEAD..05/21/13
ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...DVN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 193
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC005-021-027-039-051-083-107-113-115-117-119-121-123-129-133-
135-143-163-167-175-179-189-203-210340-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOND CHRISTIAN CLINTON
DE WITT FAYETTE JERSEY
LOGAN MCLEAN MACON
MACOUPIN MADISON MARION
MARSHALL MENARD MONROE
MONTGOMERY PEORIA ST. CLAIR
SANGAMON STARK TAZEWELL
WASHINGTON WOODFORD
$$
MOC055-071-073-099-183-189-219-221-510-210340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAWFORD FRANKLIN GASCONADE
JEFFERSON ST. CHARLES ST. LOUIS
WARREN WASHINGTON
MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. LOUIS CITY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 193
VALID 210220Z - 210340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 NNW VIH TO
50 NW STL TO 25 SSW SPI TO 30 SE MLI.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 739
..SMITH..05/21/13
ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...DVN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 193
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC005-013-021-027-039-051-057-061-083-095-107-113-115-117-119-
121-123-125-129-133-135-143-163-167-175-179-189-203-210340-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOND CALHOUN CHRISTIAN
CLINTON DE WITT FAYETTE
FULTON GREENE JERSEY
KNOX LOGAN MCLEAN
MACON MACOUPIN MADISON
MARION MARSHALL MASON
MENARD MONROE MONTGOMERY
PEORIA ST. CLAIR SANGAMON
STARK TAZEWELL WASHINGTON
WOODFORD
$$
MOC055-071-073-099-113-183-189-219-221-510-210340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAWFORD FRANKLIN GASCONADE
JEFFERSON LINCOLN ST. CHARLES
ST. LOUIS WARREN WASHINGTON
MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. LOUIS CITY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 193
VALID 210130Z - 210240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..05/21/13
ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...DVN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 193
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC001-005-009-013-017-021-027-051-057-061-067-083-109-117-119-
121-125-129-133-135-137-149-163-167-169-171-189-210240-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BOND BROWN
CALHOUN CASS CHRISTIAN
CLINTON FAYETTE FULTON
GREENE HANCOCK JERSEY
MCDONOUGH MACOUPIN MADISON
MARION MASON MENARD
MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN
PIKE ST. CLAIR SANGAMON
SCHUYLER SCOTT WASHINGTON
$$
MOC007-019-027-045-051-055-071-073-099-103-111-113-127-135-137-
139-151-163-173-183-189-199-205-219-221-510-210240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUDRAIN BOONE CALLAWAY
CLARK COLE CRAWFORD
FRANKLIN GASCONADE JEFFERSON
KNOX LEWIS LINCOLN
MARION MONITEAU MONROE
MONTGOMERY OSAGE PIKE
RALLS ST. CHARLES ST. LOUIS
SCOTLAND SHELBY WARREN
WASHINGTON
MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. LOUIS CITY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 193
VALID 202335Z - 210040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..05/20/13
ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...DVN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 193
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC001-005-009-013-017-021-027-051-057-061-067-083-109-117-119-
121-125-129-133-135-137-149-163-167-169-171-189-210040-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BOND BROWN
CALHOUN CASS CHRISTIAN
CLINTON FAYETTE FULTON
GREENE HANCOCK JERSEY
MCDONOUGH MACOUPIN MADISON
MARION MASON MENARD
MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN
PIKE ST. CLAIR SANGAMON
SCHUYLER SCOTT WASHINGTON
$$
MOC007-019-027-045-051-055-071-073-099-103-111-113-127-135-137-
139-151-163-173-183-189-199-205-219-221-510-210040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUDRAIN BOONE CALLAWAY
CLARK COLE CRAWFORD
FRANKLIN GASCONADE JEFFERSON
KNOX LEWIS LINCOLN
MARION MONITEAU MONROE
MONTGOMERY OSAGE PIKE
RALLS ST. CHARLES ST. LOUIS
SCOTLAND SHELBY WARREN
WASHINGTON
MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. LOUIS CITY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (90%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.