Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 197
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1055 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL INDIANA
WESTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 1055 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE
NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
A FEW LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
POPLAR BLUFF MISSOURI TO 5 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF LAFAYETTE
INDIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 193...WW 194...WW
195...WW 196...
DISCUSSION...SE MO/CNTRL IL SQLN WITH EMBEDDED LOW-AMPLITUDE BOWS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD...WHERE EXISTING WIND/THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ADDITIONAL SVR WIND
GUSTS...MARGINALLY SVR HAIL...AND POSSIBLY BRIEF TORNADOES. A
TORNADO THREAT ALSO MAY DEVELOP WITH ONE OR TWO STORMS ARISING FROM
CONFLUENCE AXIS AHEAD OF SQLN IN SE MO AS THE STORMS MOVE/DEVELOP
NEWD INTO MOIST/STRONGLY-SHEARED LOW-LVL ENVIRONMENT INTO SRN IL.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 197 TORNADO IL IN KY MO 210355Z - 211000Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
40ESE POF/POPLAR BLUFF MO/ - 5WNW LAF/LAFAYETTE IN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /39NW DYR - 7SSE BVT/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
LAT...LON 36549106 40438834 40438569 36548854
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 197 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 197
VALID 210935Z - 211040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE PAH
TO 25 W EVV TO 20 NE EVV.
..PETERS..05/21/13
ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...IND...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 197
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC129-163-173-211040-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
POSEY VANDERBURGH WARRICK
$$
KYC033-101-225-233-211040-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALDWELL HENDERSON UNION
WEBSTER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 197
VALID 210855Z - 210940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE PAH
TO 30 SSE MVN TO 30 NE EVV.
..PETERS..05/21/13
ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...IND...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 197
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC059-065-069-151-165-193-210940-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN
POPE SALINE WHITE
$$
INC129-163-173-210940-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
POSEY VANDERBURGH WARRICK
$$
KYC033-035-055-101-139-143-157-225-233-210940-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALDWELL CALLOWAY CRITTENDEN
HENDERSON LIVINGSTON LYON
MARSHALL UNION WEBSTER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 197
VALID 210750Z - 210840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW DYR
TO 10 ESE CGI TO 15 SE MVN TO 30 NNE EVV.
..HART..05/21/13
ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...IND...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 197
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC003-059-065-069-087-127-151-153-165-193-199-210840-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER GALLATIN HAMILTON
HARDIN JOHNSON MASSAC
POPE PULASKI SALINE
WHITE WILLIAMSON
$$
INC005-013-031-035-057-059-065-067-071-079-081-093-095-097-129-
135-139-145-159-163-173-210840-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTHOLOMEW BROWN DECATUR
DELAWARE HAMILTON HANCOCK
HENRY HOWARD JACKSON
JENNINGS JOHNSON LAWRENCE
MADISON MARION POSEY
RANDOLPH RUSH SHELBY
TIPTON VANDERBURGH WARRICK
$$
KYC007-033-035-039-055-075-083-101-105-139-143-145-157-225-233-
210840-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CALDWELL CALLOWAY
CARLISLE CRITTENDEN FULTON
GRAVES HENDERSON HICKMAN
LIVINGSTON LYON MCCRACKEN
MARSHALL UNION WEBSTER
$$
MOC133-210840-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MISSISSIPPI
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 197
VALID 210640Z - 210740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW POF TO
25 SE BLV TO 40 NNW EVV TO 15 S HUF TO 20 WNW LAF.
..PETERS..05/21/13
ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...IND...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 197
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181-
185-191-193-199-210740-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER EDWARDS FRANKLIN
GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN
JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON
MASSAC PERRY POPE
PULASKI SALINE UNION
WABASH WAYNE WHITE
WILLIAMSON
$$
INC011-015-021-023-027-045-051-055-057-063-067-083-097-101-105-
107-109-119-121-125-129-133-153-157-159-163-173-210740-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOONE CARROLL CLAY
CLINTON DAVIESS FOUNTAIN
GIBSON GREENE HAMILTON
HENDRICKS HOWARD KNOX
MARION MARTIN MONROE
MONTGOMERY MORGAN OWEN
PARKE PIKE POSEY
PUTNAM SULLIVAN TIPPECANOE
TIPTON VANDERBURGH WARRICK
$$
KYC007-033-035-039-055-075-083-101-105-139-143-145-157-225-233-
210740-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CALDWELL CALLOWAY
CARLISLE CRITTENDEN FULTON
GRAVES HENDERSON HICKMAN
LIVINGSTON LYON MCCRACKEN
MARSHALL UNION WEBSTER
$$
MOC017-023-031-133-143-157-201-207-223-210740-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU
MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID PERRY
SCOTT STODDARD WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (80%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.