SEL2
   
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 212
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   340 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   
   * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
     WESTERN NEW YORK
     NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
     LAKE ERIE
     LAKE ONTARIO
   
   * EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 340 PM
     UNTIL 1100 PM EDT.
   
   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
     SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
     A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
   
   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
   STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST OF
   BUFFALO NEW YORK TO 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF UTICA NEW YORK.  FOR A
   COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
   UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
   
   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
   
   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
   
   &&
   
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 210...WW 211...
   
   DISCUSSION...LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF
   A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IS
   EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE
   THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK TO MODERATE
   INSTABILITY...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST
   FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...AS SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW
   STRENGTHENS...WITH ONE OR TWO TORNADOES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. 
   HOWEVER...THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AND FAIRLY
   LOCALIZED...AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING HAS RESULTED IN SIZABLE
   TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS...WHICH PROBABLY WILL ALLOW OUTFLOW TO
   QUICKLY UNDERCUT MESOCYLONES.
   
   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
   KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
   MOTION VECTOR 26035.
   
   
   ...KERR

   SEL2
   
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 212
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   340 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   
   * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
     WESTERN NEW YORK
     NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
     LAKE ERIE
     LAKE ONTARIO
   
   * EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 340 PM
     UNTIL 1100 PM EDT.
   
   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
     SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
     A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
   
   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
   STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST OF
   BUFFALO NEW YORK TO 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF UTICA NEW YORK.  FOR A
   COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
   UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
   
   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
   
   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
   
   &&
   
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 210...WW 211...
   
   DISCUSSION...LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF
   A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IS
   EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE
   THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK TO MODERATE
   INSTABILITY...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST
   FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...AS SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW
   STRENGTHENS...WITH ONE OR TWO TORNADOES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. 
   HOWEVER...THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AND FAIRLY
   LOCALIZED...AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING HAS RESULTED IN SIZABLE
   TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS...WHICH PROBABLY WILL ALLOW OUTFLOW TO
   QUICKLY UNDERCUT MESOCYLONES.
   
   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
   KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
   MOTION VECTOR 26035.
   
   
   ...KERR

   WOUS64 KWNS 221936
   WOU2
   
   BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 212
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   340 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
   
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 212 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
   FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
   
   NYC003-007-009-011-013-015-017-023-025-045-049-051-053-055-065-
   067-069-075-077-097-099-101-105-107-109-117-121-123-230300-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0212.130522T1940Z-130523T0300Z/
   
   NY 
   .    NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
   
   ALLEGANY             BROOME              CATTARAUGUS         
   CAYUGA               CHAUTAUQUA          CHEMUNG             
   CHENANGO             CORTLAND            DELAWARE            
   JEFFERSON            LEWIS               LIVINGSTON          
   MADISON              MONROE              ONEIDA              
   ONONDAGA             ONTARIO             OSWEGO              
   OTSEGO               SCHUYLER            SENECA              
   STEUBEN              SULLIVAN            TIOGA               
   TOMPKINS             WAYNE               WYOMING             
   YATES                
   
   
   PAC015-115-127-230300-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0212.130522T1940Z-130523T0300Z/
   
   PA 
   .    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
   
   BRADFORD             SUSQUEHANNA         WAYNE               
   
   
   LEZ020-LOZ030-043-044-045-063-064-065-230300-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0212.130522T1940Z-130523T0300Z/
   
   CW 
   
   .    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
   
   UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR 
   
   LOWER NIAGARA RIVER 
   
   HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY 
   
   SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY 
   
   MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER 
   
   HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
   US-CANADIAN BORDER 
   
   SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
   US-CANADIAN BORDER 
   
   MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE
   TO US-CANADIAN BORDER 
   
   ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...
   
   
   

   SAW2 
   WW 212 SEVERE TSTM NY PA LE LO 221940Z - 230300Z
   AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
   30W BUF/BUFFALO NY/ - 15SE UCA/UTICA NY/
   ..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM N/S /30W BUF - 46ESE SYR/
   HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
   MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035.
   
   LAT...LON 43937931 44007516 41977516 41917931
   
   THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA.  FOR A
   COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
   FOR WOU2.
   

Watch 212 Status Report Messages:

STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 212

VALID 230050Z - 230140Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..BROYLES..05/23/13

ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WS 212 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

NYC003-007-009-011-013-015-017-023-025-045-049-051-053-055-065-
067-069-075-077-097-099-101-105-107-109-117-121-123-230140-

NY 
.    NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEGANY	     BROOME		 CATTARAUGUS	     
CAYUGA		     CHAUTAUQUA 	 CHEMUNG	     
CHENANGO	     CORTLAND		 DELAWARE	     
JEFFERSON	     LEWIS		 LIVINGSTON	     
MADISON 	     MONROE		 ONEIDA 	     
ONONDAGA	     ONTARIO		 OSWEGO 	     
OTSEGO		     SCHUYLER		 SENECA 	     
STEUBEN 	     SULLIVAN		 TIOGA		     
TOMPKINS	     WAYNE		 WYOMING	     
YATES		     
$$


PAC015-115-127-230140-

PA 
.    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BRADFORD	     SUSQUEHANNA	 WAYNE		     
$$


LEZ020-LOZ043-044-045-063-064-065-230140-

CW 

.    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY 

SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY 

MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER 

HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER 

SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER 

MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE
TO US-CANADIAN BORDER 

UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR 

$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 212

VALID 222130Z - 222240Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..BROYLES..05/22/13

ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WS 212 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

NYC003-007-009-011-013-015-017-023-025-045-049-051-053-055-065-
067-069-075-077-097-099-101-105-107-109-117-121-123-222240-

NY 
.    NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEGANY	     BROOME		 CATTARAUGUS	     
CAYUGA		     CHAUTAUQUA 	 CHEMUNG	     
CHENANGO	     CORTLAND		 DELAWARE	     
JEFFERSON	     LEWIS		 LIVINGSTON	     
MADISON 	     MONROE		 ONEIDA 	     
ONONDAGA	     ONTARIO		 OSWEGO 	     
OTSEGO		     SCHUYLER		 SENECA 	     
STEUBEN 	     SULLIVAN		 TIOGA		     
TOMPKINS	     WAYNE		 WYOMING	     
YATES		     
$$


PAC015-115-127-222240-

PA 
.    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BRADFORD	     SUSQUEHANNA	 WAYNE		     
$$


LEZ020-LOZ043-044-045-063-064-065-222240-

CW 

.    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY 

SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY 

MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER 

HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER 

SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER 

MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE
TO US-CANADIAN BORDER 

UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR 

$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 212

VALID 222130Z - 222240Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..BROYLES..05/22/13

ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WS 212 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

NYC003-007-009-011-013-015-017-023-025-045-049-051-053-055-065-
067-069-075-077-097-099-101-105-107-109-117-121-123-222240-

NY 
.    NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEGANY	     BROOME		 CATTARAUGUS	     
CAYUGA		     CHAUTAUQUA 	 CHEMUNG	     
CHENANGO	     CORTLAND		 DELAWARE	     
JEFFERSON	     LEWIS		 LIVINGSTON	     
MADISON 	     MONROE		 ONEIDA 	     
ONONDAGA	     ONTARIO		 OSWEGO 	     
OTSEGO		     SCHUYLER		 SENECA 	     
STEUBEN 	     SULLIVAN		 TIOGA		     
TOMPKINS	     WAYNE		 WYOMING	     
YATES		     
$$


PAC015-115-127-222240-

PA 
.    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BRADFORD	     SUSQUEHANNA	 WAYNE		     
$$


LEZ020-LOZ043-044-045-063-064-065-222240-

CW 

.    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY 

SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY 

MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER 

HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER 

SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER 

MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE
TO US-CANADIAN BORDER 

UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR 

$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 212

VALID 222030Z - 222140Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..SPC..05/22/13

ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WS 212 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

NYC003-007-009-011-013-015-017-023-025-045-049-051-053-055-065-
067-069-075-077-097-099-101-105-107-109-117-121-123-222140-

NY 
.    NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEGANY	     BROOME		 CATTARAUGUS	     
CAYUGA		     CHAUTAUQUA 	 CHEMUNG	     
CHENANGO	     CORTLAND		 DELAWARE	     
JEFFERSON	     LEWIS		 LIVINGSTON	     
MADISON 	     MONROE		 ONEIDA 	     
ONONDAGA	     ONTARIO		 OSWEGO 	     
OTSEGO		     SCHUYLER		 SENECA 	     
STEUBEN 	     SULLIVAN		 TIOGA		     
TOMPKINS	     WAYNE		 WYOMING	     
YATES		     
$$


PAC015-115-127-222140-

PA 
.    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BRADFORD	     SUSQUEHANNA	 WAYNE		     
$$


LEZ020-LOZ043-044-045-063-064-065-222140-

CW 

.    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY 

SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY 

MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER 

HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER 

SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER 

MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE
TO US-CANADIAN BORDER 

UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR 

$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

Please visit the National Weather Service Interactive Weather Information Network (IWIN) for more information on the warnings.

For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), "Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event.