Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 214
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
205 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
SOUTHWEST TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 205 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LIKELY WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 125
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BIG SPRING TEXAS TO 85 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DRYDEN TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 213...
DISCUSSION...RAPID STORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOW UNDERWAY...ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. IN THE
PRESENCE OF THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY VERY STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LARGE CAPE...VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE
MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST SHORT-LIVED UPDRAFT ROTATION IN
STRONGEST STORMS. LIGHT WESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW MAY AID
PROPAGATION INTO PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU...AS SURFACE COLD POOLS CONSOLIDATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION TO THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE
PROBABLE...BOTH WITH DOWNBURSTS AND ALONG THE OUTFLOW GUST FRONT.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27010.
...KERR
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 214 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 231905Z - 240300Z
AXIS..125 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
15NW BGS/BIG SPRING TX/ - 85SW 6R6/DRYDEN TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 110NM E/W /33NE MAF - 78SSE MRF/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27010.
LAT...LON 32369954 29140112 29140527 32360381
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 214 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 214
VALID 240135Z - 240240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW 6R6
TO 5 SE FST TO 25 SSE HOB.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 788
..GUYER..05/24/13
ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...EWX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 214
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC049-081-083-095-103-105-135-173-235-307-329-371-383-399-411-
413-431-435-443-451-461-465-240240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN COKE COLEMAN
CONCHO CRANE CROCKETT
ECTOR GLASSCOCK IRION
MCCULLOCH MIDLAND PECOS
REAGAN RUNNELS SAN SABA
SCHLEICHER STERLING SUTTON
TERRELL TOM GREEN UPTON
VAL VERDE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 214
VALID 232135Z - 232240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 785
..GUYER..05/23/13
ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...EWX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 214
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC015-025-232240-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
EDDY LEA
$$
TXC043-081-103-105-109-135-173-235-243-301-329-371-377-383-389-
399-413-431-435-443-451-461-465-475-495-232240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BREWSTER COKE CRANE
CROCKETT CULBERSON ECTOR
GLASSCOCK IRION JEFF DAVIS
LOVING MIDLAND PECOS
PRESIDIO REAGAN REEVES
RUNNELS SCHLEICHER STERLING
SUTTON TERRELL TOM GREEN
UPTON VAL VERDE WARD
WINKLER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 214
VALID 231945Z - 232040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BUNTING..05/23/13
ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...EWX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 214
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC015-025-232040-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
EDDY LEA
$$
TXC043-081-103-105-109-135-173-235-243-301-329-371-377-383-389-
399-413-431-435-443-451-461-465-475-495-232040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BREWSTER COKE CRANE
CROCKETT CULBERSON ECTOR
GLASSCOCK IRION JEFF DAVIS
LOVING MIDLAND PECOS
PRESIDIO REAGAN REEVES
RUNNELS SCHLEICHER STERLING
SUTTON TERRELL TOM GREEN
UPTON VAL VERDE WARD
WINKLER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.