Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 239
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA INCLUDING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PANHANDLE
NORTHWEST TEXAS INCLUDING THE EASTERN PANHANDLE
* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1225 PM
UNTIL 1000 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
RUSSELL KANSAS TO 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF CHILDRESS TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
DISCUSSION...TSTM INITIATION IS UNDERWAY E OF THE DRYLINE IN
RESPONSE TO THE EWD MIGRATION OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH INTO THE SRN
PLAINS. THE PRESENCE OF VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER IS ALREADY RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000
J/KG WITH A DECREASING CAP. DESPITE SOME VEER-BACK TENDENCIES IN
OBSERVED AND FORECAST WIND PROFILES...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL
STRENGTHEN INTO THIS EVENING SUPPORTING A RISK FOR TORNADOES /SOME
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT/ IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL WITH THE
MOST INTENSE SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24025.
...MEAD
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 239 TORNADO KS OK TX 291725Z - 300300Z
AXIS..90 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
60WNW RSL/RUSSELL KS/ - 45SSE CDS/CHILDRESS TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM E/W /18ESE HLC - 36SSE CDS/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24025.
LAT...LON 39189816 33819841 33810155 39180154
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 239 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 239
VALID 300135Z - 300240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S FSI TO
5 NE LTS TO 20 ENE CDS TO 40 W CSM TO 25 W END TO 25 WNW HUT TO
10 W DDC TO 30 WSW GCK TO 25 WNW GCK TO 25 SW HLC.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 867
..DIAL..05/30/13
ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...GLD...OUN...AMA...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 239
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC009-051-053-055-063-077-079-083-095-101-105-113-115-135-145-
155-159-165-167-169-195-300240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON ELLIS ELLSWORTH
FINNEY GOVE HARPER
HARVEY HODGEMAN KINGMAN
LANE LINCOLN MCPHERSON
MARION NESS PAWNEE
RENO RICE RUSH
RUSSELL SALINE TREGO
$$
OKC003-009-011-015-031-039-043-055-057-075-093-149-300240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA BECKHAM BLAINE
CADDO COMANCHE CUSTER
DEWEY GREER HARMON
KIOWA MAJOR WASHITA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 239
VALID 300040Z - 300140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE SPS
TO 15 S FSI TO 5 N LTS TO 20 ENE CDS TO 35 NNW CDS TO 55 NNW CDS
TO 45 W CSM TO 35 WSW END TO 15 NW AVK TO 55 N GAG TO 10 ESE LBL
TO 35 S GUY.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 867
..DIAL..05/30/13
ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...GLD...OUN...AMA...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 239
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC007-009-025-033-047-051-053-055-057-063-067-069-071-075-077-
079-081-083-093-095-097-101-105-109-113-115-119-129-135-145-151-
155-159-165-167-169-171-175-185-187-189-195-199-203-300140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER BARTON CLARK
COMANCHE EDWARDS ELLIS
ELLSWORTH FINNEY FORD
GOVE GRANT GRAY
GREELEY HAMILTON HARPER
HARVEY HASKELL HODGEMAN
KEARNY KINGMAN KIOWA
LANE LINCOLN LOGAN
MCPHERSON MARION MEADE
MORTON NESS PAWNEE
PRATT RENO RICE
RUSH RUSSELL SALINE
SCOTT SEWARD STAFFORD
STANTON STEVENS TREGO
WALLACE WICHITA
$$
OKC003-009-011-015-031-033-039-043-055-057-075-093-139-149-151-
300140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA BECKHAM BLAINE
CADDO COMANCHE COTTON
CUSTER DEWEY GREER
HARMON KIOWA MAJOR
TEXAS WASHITA WOODS
$$
TXC087-300140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLLINGSWORTH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 239
VALID 292235Z - 292340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..DIAL..05/29/13
ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...GLD...OUN...AMA...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 239
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC007-009-025-033-047-051-053-055-057-063-067-069-071-075-077-
081-083-093-095-097-101-105-109-119-129-135-145-151-155-159-165-
167-171-175-185-187-189-195-199-203-292340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER BARTON CLARK
COMANCHE EDWARDS ELLIS
ELLSWORTH FINNEY FORD
GOVE GRANT GRAY
GREELEY HAMILTON HARPER
HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY
KINGMAN KIOWA LANE
LINCOLN LOGAN MEADE
MORTON NESS PAWNEE
PRATT RENO RICE
RUSH RUSSELL SCOTT
SEWARD STAFFORD STANTON
STEVENS TREGO WALLACE
WICHITA
$$
OKC003-007-009-011-015-031-033-039-043-045-055-057-059-065-075-
093-129-139-141-149-151-153-292340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA BEAVER BECKHAM
BLAINE CADDO COMANCHE
COTTON CUSTER DEWEY
ELLIS GREER HARMON
HARPER JACKSON KIOWA
MAJOR ROGER MILLS TEXAS
TILLMAN WASHITA WOODS
WOODWARD
$$
TXC011-045-065-075-087-101-129-153-155-179-191-195-197-211-233-
295-345-357-393-483-485-487-292340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BRISCOE CARSON
CHILDRESS COLLINGSWORTH COTTLE
DONLEY FLOYD FOARD
GRAY HALL HANSFORD
HARDEMAN HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON
LIPSCOMB MOTLEY OCHILTREE
ROBERTS WHEELER WICHITA
WILBARGER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 239
VALID 292040Z - 292140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 858
..MOSIER..05/29/13
ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...GLD...OUN...AMA...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 239
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC007-009-025-033-047-051-053-055-057-063-067-069-071-075-077-
081-083-093-095-097-101-105-109-119-129-135-145-151-155-159-165-
167-171-175-185-187-189-195-199-203-292140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER BARTON CLARK
COMANCHE EDWARDS ELLIS
ELLSWORTH FINNEY FORD
GOVE GRANT GRAY
GREELEY HAMILTON HARPER
HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY
KINGMAN KIOWA LANE
LINCOLN LOGAN MEADE
MORTON NESS PAWNEE
PRATT RENO RICE
RUSH RUSSELL SCOTT
SEWARD STAFFORD STANTON
STEVENS TREGO WALLACE
WICHITA
$$
OKC003-007-009-011-015-031-033-039-043-045-055-057-059-065-075-
093-129-139-141-149-151-153-292140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA BEAVER BECKHAM
BLAINE CADDO COMANCHE
COTTON CUSTER DEWEY
ELLIS GREER HARMON
HARPER JACKSON KIOWA
MAJOR ROGER MILLS TEXAS
TILLMAN WASHITA WOODS
WOODWARD
$$
TXC011-045-065-075-087-101-129-153-155-179-191-195-197-211-233-
295-345-357-393-483-485-487-292140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BRISCOE CARSON
CHILDRESS COLLINGSWORTH COTTLE
DONLEY FLOYD FOARD
GRAY HALL HANSFORD
HARDEMAN HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON
LIPSCOMB MOTLEY OCHILTREE
ROBERTS WHEELER WICHITA
WILBARGER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 239
VALID 291925Z - 292040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MOSIER..05/29/13
ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...GLD...OUN...AMA...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 239
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC007-009-025-033-047-051-053-055-057-063-067-069-071-075-077-
081-083-093-095-097-101-105-109-119-129-135-145-151-155-159-165-
167-171-175-185-187-189-195-199-203-292040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER BARTON CLARK
COMANCHE EDWARDS ELLIS
ELLSWORTH FINNEY FORD
GOVE GRANT GRAY
GREELEY HAMILTON HARPER
HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY
KINGMAN KIOWA LANE
LINCOLN LOGAN MEADE
MORTON NESS PAWNEE
PRATT RENO RICE
RUSH RUSSELL SCOTT
SEWARD STAFFORD STANTON
STEVENS TREGO WALLACE
WICHITA
$$
OKC003-007-009-011-015-031-033-039-043-045-055-057-059-065-075-
093-129-139-141-149-151-153-292040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA BEAVER BECKHAM
BLAINE CADDO COMANCHE
COTTON CUSTER DEWEY
ELLIS GREER HARMON
HARPER JACKSON KIOWA
MAJOR ROGER MILLS TEXAS
TILLMAN WASHITA WOODS
WOODWARD
$$
TXC011-045-065-075-087-101-129-153-155-179-191-195-197-211-233-
295-345-357-393-483-485-487-292040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BRISCOE CARSON
CHILDRESS COLLINGSWORTH COTTLE
DONLEY FLOYD FOARD
GRAY HALL HANSFORD
HARDEMAN HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON
LIPSCOMB MOTLEY OCHILTREE
ROBERTS WHEELER WICHITA
WILBARGER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (50%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (80%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (60%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.