Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 217
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
500 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS
EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 500 AM UNTIL 1100 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST OF
JEFFERSON CITY MISSOURI TO 25 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF SCOTT AFB
ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 214...
DISCUSSION...A WELL-ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...WITH
HISTORY OF ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND NEAR-SEVERE MEASURED WIND
GUSTS...WILL CONTINUE A FAST /50+ MPH/ EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
PROGRESSION THROUGH THE EARLY/MID-MORNING HOURS. BOUTS OF LOCALIZED
WIND DAMAGE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARD ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL MO AND POTENTIALLY PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MO/SOUTHWEST IL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28045.
...GUYER
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 217 SEVERE TSTM IL MO 041000Z - 041600Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
25W JEF/JEFFERSON CITY MO/ - 25ESE BLV/SCOTT AFB IL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM N/S /23SW COU - 57ESE STL/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28045.
LAT...LON 39319261 39118941 37688941 37889261
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 217 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 217
VALID 041325Z - 041440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E FAM TO
20 NNW MDH.
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW PROBABLY
WILL BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO CURRENT SCHEDULED 16Z EXPIRATION.
..KERR..06/04/14
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 217
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC005-027-051-121-157-189-041440-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOND CLINTON FAYETTE
MARION RANDOLPH WASHINGTON
$$
MOC123-041440-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MADISON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 217
VALID 041225Z - 041340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE FAM
TO 35 ENE ALN.
..MEAD..06/04/14
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 217
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC005-027-051-121-157-189-041340-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOND CLINTON FAYETTE
MARION RANDOLPH WASHINGTON
$$
MOC123-041340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MADISON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 217
VALID 041130Z - 041240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE TBN
TO 20 NNW ALN.
..MEAD..06/04/14
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 217
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC005-027-051-119-121-133-135-157-163-189-041240-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOND CLINTON FAYETTE
MADISON MARION MONROE
MONTGOMERY RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR
WASHINGTON
$$
MOC055-065-071-093-099-123-161-179-183-186-187-189-221-510-
041240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAWFORD DENT FRANKLIN
IRON JEFFERSON MADISON
PHELPS REYNOLDS ST. CHARLES
STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS ST. LOUIS
WASHINGTON
MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. LOUIS CITY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.