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The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 486
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
335 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 335 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF ENID OKLAHOMA TO 65 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF TULSA
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 485...
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER SOUTHERN KS/NORTHERN OK AND TRACK
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THROUGH THE EVENING.
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
THE MAIN THREAT.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28030.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 486 SEVERE TSTM KS OK 012035Z - 020300Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
55NNW END/ENID OK/ - 65ENE TUL/TULSA OK/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /48NNW END - 38WNW RZC/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28030.
LAT...LON 37959830 37419480 35689480 36229830
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 486 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 486
VALID 020240Z - 020300Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S AVK TO
25 E HUT.
PARTS OF WW 486 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 020300Z...WITH SOME
SRN KS COUNTIES EXTENDED LOCALLY AND SOME NRN OK COUNTIES INCLUDED
IN A NEW WATCH.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1661
..DEAN..09/02/14
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...TSA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 486
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC001-015-019-035-049-073-077-099-125-133-173-191-205-207-
020300-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN BUTLER CHAUTAUQUA
COWLEY ELK GREENWOOD
HARPER LABETTE MONTGOMERY
NEOSHO SEDGWICK SUMNER
WILSON WOODSON
$$
OKC003-035-037-041-047-053-071-097-103-105-113-115-117-119-131-
143-145-147-020300-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA CRAIG CREEK
DELAWARE GARFIELD GRANT
KAY MAYES NOBLE
NOWATA OSAGE OTTAWA
PAWNEE PAYNE ROGERS
TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 486
VALID 020140Z - 020240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..DEAN..09/02/14
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...TSA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 486
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC001-015-019-035-049-073-077-099-125-133-173-191-205-207-
020240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN BUTLER CHAUTAUQUA
COWLEY ELK GREENWOOD
HARPER LABETTE MONTGOMERY
NEOSHO SEDGWICK SUMNER
WILSON WOODSON
$$
OKC003-035-037-041-047-053-071-097-103-105-113-115-117-119-131-
143-145-147-020240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA CRAIG CREEK
DELAWARE GARFIELD GRANT
KAY MAYES NOBLE
NOWATA OSAGE OTTAWA
PAWNEE PAYNE ROGERS
TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 486
VALID 020040Z - 020140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1660
..DEAN..09/02/14
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...TSA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 486
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC001-015-019-035-049-073-077-099-125-133-173-191-205-207-
020140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN BUTLER CHAUTAUQUA
COWLEY ELK GREENWOOD
HARPER LABETTE MONTGOMERY
NEOSHO SEDGWICK SUMNER
WILSON WOODSON
$$
OKC003-035-037-041-047-053-071-097-103-105-113-115-117-119-131-
143-145-147-020140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA CRAIG CREEK
DELAWARE GARFIELD GRANT
KAY MAYES NOBLE
NOWATA OSAGE OTTAWA
PAWNEE PAYNE ROGERS
TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 486
VALID 012345Z - 020040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..DEAN..09/01/14
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...TSA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 486
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC015-019-035-049-077-099-125-133-173-191-205-020040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTLER CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY
ELK HARPER LABETTE
MONTGOMERY NEOSHO SEDGWICK
SUMNER WILSON
$$
OKC003-035-037-041-047-053-071-097-103-105-113-115-117-119-131-
143-145-147-020040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA CRAIG CREEK
DELAWARE GARFIELD GRANT
KAY MAYES NOBLE
NOWATA OSAGE OTTAWA
PAWNEE PAYNE ROGERS
TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 486
VALID 012235Z - 012340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..09/01/14
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...TSA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 486
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC015-019-035-049-077-099-125-133-173-191-205-012340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTLER CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY
ELK HARPER LABETTE
MONTGOMERY NEOSHO SEDGWICK
SUMNER WILSON
$$
OKC003-035-037-041-047-053-071-097-103-105-113-115-117-119-131-
143-145-147-012340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA CRAIG CREEK
DELAWARE GARFIELD GRANT
KAY MAYES NOBLE
NOWATA OSAGE OTTAWA
PAWNEE PAYNE ROGERS
TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.