Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 39
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
100 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST IOWA
WESTERN ILLINOIS
NORTHERN MISSOURI
* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 100 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHEAST OF CEDAR
RAPIDS IOWA TO 5 MILES SOUTH OF COLUMBIA MISSOURI. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
DISCUSSION...DISCRETE CELLS FORMING ALONG A COLD FRONT AND SURFACE
CYCLONE WILL INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
TORNADOES THE PRIMARY INITIAL HAZARDS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...GRAMS/CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 39 TORNADO IA IL MO 091800Z - 100100Z
AXIS..90 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
45NE CID/CEDAR RAPIDS IA/ - 5S COU/COLUMBIA MO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM E/W /18WSW DBQ - 4S COU/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
LAT...LON 42338933 38749055 38749388 42339286
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 39 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 39
VALID 092340Z - 100040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E COU TO
25 NNE UIN TO 10 W DBQ.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 259
..GUYER..04/09/15
ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...LSX...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 39
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC009-015-067-071-073-085-109-131-149-161-177-187-195-100040-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN CARROLL HANCOCK
HENDERSON HENRY JO DAVIESS
MCDONOUGH MERCER PIKE
ROCK ISLAND STEPHENSON WARREN
WHITESIDE
$$
IAC031-045-057-097-105-115-139-163-100040-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CEDAR CLINTON DES MOINES
JACKSON JONES LOUISA
MUSCATINE SCOTT
$$
MOC073-139-151-163-100040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GASCONADE MONTGOMERY OSAGE
PIKE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 39
VALID 092025Z - 092140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE SZL
TO 40 SSW IRK TO 25 NNW IRK TO 20 ENE OXV TO 45 SW ALO.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 251
..COOK..04/09/15
ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...LSX...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 39
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC001-009-015-067-071-073-085-109-131-149-161-177-187-195-
092140-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BROWN CARROLL
HANCOCK HENDERSON HENRY
JO DAVIESS MCDONOUGH MERCER
PIKE ROCK ISLAND STEPHENSON
WARREN WHITESIDE
$$
IAC011-031-045-051-057-087-095-097-101-103-105-107-111-113-115-
123-139-157-163-177-179-183-092140-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CEDAR CLINTON
DAVIS DES MOINES HENRY
IOWA JACKSON JEFFERSON
JOHNSON JONES KEOKUK
LEE LINN LOUISA
MAHASKA MUSCATINE POWESHIEK
SCOTT VAN BUREN WAPELLO
WASHINGTON
$$
MOC001-007-019-027-045-051-053-073-089-103-111-121-127-135-137-
139-151-163-173-175-197-199-205-092140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR AUDRAIN BOONE
CALLAWAY CLARK COLE
COOPER GASCONADE HOWARD
KNOX LEWIS MACON
MARION MONITEAU MONROE
MONTGOMERY OSAGE PIKE
RALLS RANDOLPH SCHUYLER
SCOTLAND SHELBY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (40%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (40%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.