Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 42
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
235 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
EASTERN OKLAHOMA
* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 235 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF VICHY MISSOURI TO 65 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
MCALESTER OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 39...WW 40...WW 41...
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD FORM SOUTHWARD
ALONG A SHARP COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE OZARKS. STORMS WILL
POSE A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25030.
...GRAMS/CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 42 SEVERE TSTM AR MO OK 091935Z - 100300Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
35WNW VIH/VICHY MO/ - 65SSE MLC/MCALESTER OK/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /31SSW COU - 55SSE MLC/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.
LAT...LON 38319126 34009430 34009638 38319347
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 42 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 42
VALID 100035Z - 100140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE DUA
TO 35 W RUE.
..PICCA..04/10/15
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 42
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MOC065-091-149-203-215-100140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DENT HOWELL OREGON
SHANNON TEXAS
$$
OKC023-079-127-100140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHOCTAW LE FLORE PUSHMATAHA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 42
VALID 092340Z - 100040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 N GYI TO 5
SSE FSM TO 25 NE VIH.
..PICCA..04/09/15
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 42
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC033-047-087-131-100040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAWFORD FRANKLIN MADISON
SEBASTIAN
$$
MOC065-067-091-125-149-153-161-169-203-215-229-100040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DENT DOUGLAS HOWELL
MARIES OREGON OZARK
PHELPS PULASKI SHANNON
TEXAS WRIGHT
$$
OKC005-013-023-077-079-127-100040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CHOCTAW
LATIMER LE FLORE PUSHMATAHA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 42
VALID 092225Z - 092340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N DUA TO
20 SSW FYV TO 25 SE SGF TO 20 SE JEF.
..PICCA..04/09/15
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 42
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC015-033-047-087-131-143-092340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL CRAWFORD FRANKLIN
MADISON SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON
$$
MOC043-065-067-091-105-125-149-153-161-169-203-209-213-215-225-
229-092340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHRISTIAN DENT DOUGLAS
HOWELL LACLEDE MARIES
OREGON OZARK PHELPS
PULASKI SHANNON STONE
TANEY TEXAS WEBSTER
WRIGHT
$$
OKC005-013-023-061-077-079-121-127-135-092340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CHOCTAW
HASKELL LATIMER LE FLORE
PITTSBURG PUSHMATAHA SEQUOYAH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.