Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 44
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
320 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTHEAST TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 320 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75
MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF FLIPPIN ARKANSAS TO 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
TEMPLE TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 39...WW 40...WW 41...WW
42...WW 43...
DISCUSSION...TWO AREAS OF STORM DEVELOPMENT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH A PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXIS AND ALONG A COLD
FRONT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS...BUT A
TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26025.
...GRAMS/CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 44 SEVERE TSTM AR OK TX 092020Z - 100300Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
40ENE FLP/FLIPPIN AR/ - 40ESE TPL/TEMPLE TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /45WNW ARG - 50NE CWK/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26025.
LAT...LON 36409073 30929577 30929780 36409287
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 44 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 44
VALID 100135Z - 100240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..PICCA..04/10/15
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 44
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-009-023-029-045-049-051-059-061-063-065-067-071-083-085-
089-095-097-101-105-109-113-115-117-119-125-127-129-133-135-137-
141-145-147-149-100240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BOONE CLEBURNE
CONWAY FAULKNER FULTON
GARLAND HOT SPRING HOWARD
INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON
JOHNSON LOGAN LONOKE
MARION MONROE MONTGOMERY
NEWTON PERRY PIKE
POLK POPE PRAIRIE
PULASKI SALINE SCOTT
SEARCY SEVIER SHARP
STONE VAN BUREN WHITE
WOODRUFF YELL
$$
OKC089-100240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MCCURTAIN
$$
TXC001-027-119-139-145-147-161-213-217-223-231-257-277-289-293-
309-331-349-379-387-395-467-100240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BELL DELTA
ELLIS FALLS FANNIN
FREESTONE HENDERSON HILL
HOPKINS HUNT KAUFMAN
LAMAR LEON LIMESTONE
MCLENNAN MILAM NAVARRO
RAINS RED RIVER ROBERTSON
VAN ZANDT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 44
VALID 100030Z - 100140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..PICCA..04/10/15
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 44
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-009-023-029-045-049-051-059-061-063-065-067-071-083-085-
089-095-097-101-105-109-113-115-117-119-125-127-129-133-135-137-
141-145-147-149-100140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BOONE CLEBURNE
CONWAY FAULKNER FULTON
GARLAND HOT SPRING HOWARD
INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON
JOHNSON LOGAN LONOKE
MARION MONROE MONTGOMERY
NEWTON PERRY PIKE
POLK POPE PRAIRIE
PULASKI SALINE SCOTT
SEARCY SEVIER SHARP
STONE VAN BUREN WHITE
WOODRUFF YELL
$$
OKC089-100140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MCCURTAIN
$$
TXC001-027-119-139-145-147-161-213-217-223-231-257-277-289-293-
309-331-349-379-387-395-467-100140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BELL DELTA
ELLIS FALLS FANNIN
FREESTONE HENDERSON HILL
HOPKINS HUNT KAUFMAN
LAMAR LEON LIMESTONE
MCLENNAN MILAM NAVARRO
RAINS RED RIVER ROBERTSON
VAN ZANDT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 44
VALID 092340Z - 100040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 260
..PICCA..04/09/15
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 44
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-009-023-029-045-049-051-059-061-063-065-067-071-083-085-
089-095-097-101-105-109-113-115-117-119-125-127-129-133-135-137-
141-145-147-149-100040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BOONE CLEBURNE
CONWAY FAULKNER FULTON
GARLAND HOT SPRING HOWARD
INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON
JOHNSON LOGAN LONOKE
MARION MONROE MONTGOMERY
NEWTON PERRY PIKE
POLK POPE PRAIRIE
PULASKI SALINE SCOTT
SEARCY SEVIER SHARP
STONE VAN BUREN WHITE
WOODRUFF YELL
$$
OKC089-100040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MCCURTAIN
$$
TXC001-027-119-139-145-147-161-213-217-223-231-257-277-289-293-
309-331-349-379-387-395-467-100040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BELL DELTA
ELLIS FALLS FANNIN
FREESTONE HENDERSON HILL
HOPKINS HUNT KAUFMAN
LAMAR LEON LIMESTONE
MCLENNAN MILAM NAVARRO
RAINS RED RIVER ROBERTSON
VAN ZANDT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 44
VALID 092230Z - 092340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..PICCA..04/09/15
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 44
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-009-023-029-045-049-051-059-061-063-065-067-071-083-085-
089-095-097-101-105-109-113-115-117-119-125-127-129-133-135-137-
141-145-147-149-092340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BOONE CLEBURNE
CONWAY FAULKNER FULTON
GARLAND HOT SPRING HOWARD
INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON
JOHNSON LOGAN LONOKE
MARION MONROE MONTGOMERY
NEWTON PERRY PIKE
POLK POPE PRAIRIE
PULASKI SALINE SCOTT
SEARCY SEVIER SHARP
STONE VAN BUREN WHITE
WOODRUFF YELL
$$
OKC089-092340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MCCURTAIN
$$
TXC001-027-119-139-145-147-161-213-217-223-231-257-277-289-293-
309-331-349-379-387-395-467-092340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BELL DELTA
ELLIS FALLS FANNIN
FREESTONE HENDERSON HILL
HOPKINS HUNT KAUFMAN
LAMAR LEON LIMESTONE
MCLENNAN MILAM NAVARRO
RAINS RED RIVER ROBERTSON
VAN ZANDT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (40%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.