Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 186
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
245 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW MEXICO
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 245 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
ALONG THE DRYLINE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AFFECTING THE WATCH AREA
THROUGH MID EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
RISKS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
LUBBOCK TEXAS TO 50 MILES NORTHEAST OF CLAYTON NEW MEXICO. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 23030.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 186 SEVERE TSTM NM OK TX 211945Z - 220300Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
65SW LBB/LUBBOCK TX/ - 50NE CAO/CLAYTON NM/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM E/W /54SW LBB - 55ESE TBE/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23030.
LAT...LON 33000348 36950341 36950159 33000175
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 186 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 186
VALID 220235Z - 220300Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE HOB
TO 40 ESE TCC TO 35 N DHT TO 15 E EHA.
MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF WW 186 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
220300Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 674.
..PETERS..05/22/16
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 186
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC139-220300-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
TEXAS
$$
TXC011-017-065-069-079-111-117-189-195-205-219-233-279-303-305-
341-359-369-375-381-421-437-445-501-220300-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BAILEY CARSON
CASTRO COCHRAN DALLAM
DEAF SMITH HALE HANSFORD
HARTLEY HOCKLEY HUTCHINSON
LAMB LUBBOCK LYNN
MOORE OLDHAM PARMER
POTTER RANDALL SHERMAN
SWISHER TERRY YOAKUM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 186
VALID 220130Z - 220240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..PETERS..05/22/16
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 186
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC009-037-041-059-220240-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CURRY QUAY ROOSEVELT
UNION
$$
OKC025-139-220240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CIMARRON TEXAS
$$
TXC011-017-065-069-079-111-117-189-195-205-219-233-279-303-305-
341-359-369-375-381-421-437-445-501-220240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BAILEY CARSON
CASTRO COCHRAN DALLAM
DEAF SMITH HALE HANSFORD
HARTLEY HOCKLEY HUTCHINSON
LAMB LUBBOCK LYNN
MOORE OLDHAM PARMER
POTTER RANDALL SHERMAN
SWISHER TERRY YOAKUM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 186
VALID 220100Z - 220140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..PETERS..05/22/16
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 186
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC009-037-041-059-220140-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CURRY QUAY ROOSEVELT
UNION
$$
OKC025-139-220140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CIMARRON TEXAS
$$
TXC011-017-065-069-079-111-117-189-195-205-219-233-279-303-305-
341-359-369-375-381-421-437-445-501-220140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BAILEY CARSON
CASTRO COCHRAN DALLAM
DEAF SMITH HALE HANSFORD
HARTLEY HOCKLEY HUTCHINSON
LAMB LUBBOCK LYNN
MOORE OLDHAM PARMER
POTTER RANDALL SHERMAN
SWISHER TERRY YOAKUM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 186
VALID 212340Z - 220040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 670.
..PETERS..05/21/16
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 186
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC009-037-041-059-220040-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CURRY QUAY ROOSEVELT
UNION
$$
OKC025-139-220040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CIMARRON TEXAS
$$
TXC011-017-065-069-079-111-117-189-195-205-219-233-279-303-305-
341-359-369-375-381-421-437-445-501-220040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BAILEY CARSON
CASTRO COCHRAN DALLAM
DEAF SMITH HALE HANSFORD
HARTLEY HOCKLEY HUTCHINSON
LAMB LUBBOCK LYNN
MOORE OLDHAM PARMER
POTTER RANDALL SHERMAN
SWISHER TERRY YOAKUM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 186
VALID 212240Z - 212340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..PETERS..05/21/16
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 186
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC009-037-041-059-212340-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CURRY QUAY ROOSEVELT
UNION
$$
OKC025-139-212340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CIMARRON TEXAS
$$
TXC011-017-065-069-079-111-117-189-195-205-219-233-279-303-305-
341-359-369-375-381-421-437-445-501-212340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BAILEY CARSON
CASTRO COCHRAN DALLAM
DEAF SMITH HALE HANSFORD
HARTLEY HOCKLEY HUTCHINSON
LAMB LUBBOCK LYNN
MOORE OLDHAM PARMER
POTTER RANDALL SHERMAN
SWISHER TERRY YOAKUM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 186
VALID 212140Z - 212240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..PETERS..05/21/16
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 186
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC009-037-041-059-212240-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CURRY QUAY ROOSEVELT
UNION
$$
OKC025-139-212240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CIMARRON TEXAS
$$
TXC011-017-065-069-079-111-117-189-195-205-219-233-279-303-305-
341-359-369-375-381-421-437-445-501-212240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BAILEY CARSON
CASTRO COCHRAN DALLAM
DEAF SMITH HALE HANSFORD
HARTLEY HOCKLEY HUTCHINSON
LAMB LUBBOCK LYNN
MOORE OLDHAM PARMER
POTTER RANDALL SHERMAN
SWISHER TERRY YOAKUM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (40%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.