Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 412
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
320 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN IOWA
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
LAKE MICHIGAN
* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 320 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN WILL
CONTINUE DEVELOPING EASTWARD TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN...WHILE NEW
INTENSE STORMS OVER NORTHEAST IOWA ARE EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE INTO A
LINE AND PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST
OF CEDAR RAPIDS IOWA TO 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF RACINE
WISCONSIN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 411...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26025.
...WEISS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 412 SEVERE TSTM IA IL WI LM 232020Z - 240300Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF LINE..
30NNW CID/CEDAR RAPIDS IA/ - 40SSE RAC/RACINE WI/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM EITHER SIDE /48NNW IOW - 23NE ORD/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26025.
LAT...LON 43089193 43028750 41438751 41479195
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 412 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 412
VALID 240235Z - 240300Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E MLI TO
30 NNW MMO TO 45 ESE RFD TO 30 SSE RAC.
WW 412 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 240300Z.
..DIAL..07/24/16
ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...LOT...MKX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 412
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC011-031-037-043-063-073-089-093-097-099-155-197-240300-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUREAU COOK DE KALB
DUPAGE GRUNDY HENRY
KANE KENDALL LAKE
LA SALLE PUTNAM WILL
$$
LMZ740-741-742-777-779-240300-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND IL
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR IL
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 412
VALID 240135Z - 240240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W MLI TO
40 SW RFD TO 15 E RFD TO 20 WSW RAC TO 20 ENE MKE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1382
..DIAL..07/24/16
ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...LOT...MKX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 412
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC011-031-037-043-063-073-089-093-097-099-103-111-141-155-161-
195-197-240240-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUREAU COOK DE KALB
DUPAGE GRUNDY HENRY
KANE KENDALL LAKE
LA SALLE LEE MCHENRY
OGLE PUTNAM ROCK ISLAND
WHITESIDE WILL
$$
IAC163-240240-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
SCOTT
$$
WIC059-240240-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KENOSHA
$$
LMZ645-646-740-741-742-777-779-240240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND IL
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR IL
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 412
VALID 240035Z - 240140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W MLI TO
30 NNW MLI TO 30 W RFD TO 10 SE JVL TO 20 NE JVL TO 30 ESE MSN.
..DIAL..07/24/16
ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...LOT...MKX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 412
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC007-011-015-031-037-043-063-073-089-093-097-099-103-111-141-
155-161-195-197-201-240140-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOONE BUREAU CARROLL
COOK DE KALB DUPAGE
GRUNDY HENRY KANE
KENDALL LAKE LA SALLE
LEE MCHENRY OGLE
PUTNAM ROCK ISLAND WHITESIDE
WILL WINNEBAGO
$$
IAC045-163-240140-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLINTON SCOTT
$$
WIC055-059-079-101-127-133-240140-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JEFFERSON KENOSHA MILWAUKEE
RACINE WALWORTH WAUKESHA
$$
LMZ645-646-740-741-742-777-779-240140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND IL
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR IL
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 412
VALID 232335Z - 240040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE CID
TO 35 E CID TO 15 SE DBQ TO 35 ESE DBQ TO 40 W JVL TO 20 WSW MSN.
..DIAL..07/23/16
ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...LOT...MKX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 412
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC007-011-015-031-037-043-063-073-089-093-097-099-103-111-141-
155-161-177-195-197-201-240040-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOONE BUREAU CARROLL
COOK DE KALB DUPAGE
GRUNDY HENRY KANE
KENDALL LAKE LA SALLE
LEE MCHENRY OGLE
PUTNAM ROCK ISLAND STEPHENSON
WHITESIDE WILL WINNEBAGO
$$
IAC031-045-097-139-163-240040-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CEDAR CLINTON JACKSON
MUSCATINE SCOTT
$$
WIC025-045-055-059-079-101-105-127-133-240040-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DANE GREEN JEFFERSON
KENOSHA MILWAUKEE RACINE
ROCK WALWORTH WAUKESHA
$$
LMZ645-646-740-741-742-777-779-240040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND IL
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR IL
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 412
VALID 232225Z - 232340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S CID TO
25 NE CID TO 20 SW LNR.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1379
..DIAL..07/23/16
ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...LOT...MKX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 412
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC007-011-015-031-037-043-063-073-085-089-093-097-099-103-111-
141-155-161-177-195-197-201-232340-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOONE BUREAU CARROLL
COOK DE KALB DUPAGE
GRUNDY HENRY JO DAVIESS
KANE KENDALL LAKE
LA SALLE LEE MCHENRY
OGLE PUTNAM ROCK ISLAND
STEPHENSON WHITESIDE WILL
WINNEBAGO
$$
IAC031-045-061-097-103-105-139-163-232340-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CEDAR CLINTON DUBUQUE
JACKSON JOHNSON JONES
MUSCATINE SCOTT
$$
WIC025-043-045-049-055-059-065-079-101-105-127-133-232340-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DANE GRANT GREEN
IOWA JEFFERSON KENOSHA
LAFAYETTE MILWAUKEE RACINE
ROCK WALWORTH WAUKESHA
$$
LMZ645-646-740-741-742-777-779-232340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND IL
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR IL
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.