Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 107
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
135 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northeast Arkansas
Western Kentucky
South Central and Southeast Missouri
West Tennessee
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until
800 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Several clusters of strong to severe storms over southern
Missouri are expected to move toward the southeast this afternoon,
with additional storms continuing over west Tennessee. Stronger
storms will produce strong wind gusts and large hail.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west northwest
of West Plains MO to 35 miles north northeast of Jackson TN. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
28020.
...Weiss
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 107
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
135 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northeast Arkansas
Western Kentucky
South Central and Southeast Missouri
West Tennessee
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until
800 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Several clusters of strong to severe storms over southern
Missouri are expected to move toward the southeast this afternoon,
with additional storms continuing over west Tennessee. Stronger
storms will produce strong wind gusts and large hail.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west northwest
of West Plains MO to 35 miles north northeast of Jackson TN. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
28020.
...Weiss
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 107 SEVERE TSTM AR KY MO TN 191835Z - 200100Z
AXIS..45 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
40WNW UNO/WEST PLAINS MO/ - 35NNE MKL/JACKSON TN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 40NM N/S /45ESE SGF - 31E DYR/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28020.
LAT...LON 37619254 36728868 35418868 36319254
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 107 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 107
VALID 200050Z - 200100Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE MEM
TO 15 SSW MKL TO 25 ENE MKL TO 45 WSW HOP.
WW 107 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 200100Z.
..COOK..05/20/18
ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 107
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TNC005-017-023-039-077-079-113-200100-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL CHESTER
DECATUR HENDERSON HENRY
MADISON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 107
VALID 192320Z - 200040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE UNO TO
25 N ARG TO 20 SSW POF TO 40 SSE POF TO 20 NNW DYR TO 20 NNE DYR
TO 40 NNE DYR TO 30 SW PAH TO 20 WSW PAH.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 466
..COOK..05/19/18
ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 107
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC021-055-093-121-200040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY GREENE MISSISSIPPI
RANDOLPH
$$
MOC069-155-200040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNKLIN PEMISCOT
$$
TNC005-017-023-033-039-045-053-075-077-079-095-097-113-131-167-
183-200040-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL CHESTER
CROCKETT DECATUR DYER
GIBSON HAYWOOD HENDERSON
HENRY LAKE LAUDERDALE
MADISON OBION TIPTON
WEAKLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 107
VALID 192230Z - 192340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE FLP TO
25 SE UNO TO 20 N ARG TO 25 SSE POF TO 40 SE POF TO 40 S CGI TO 5
ENE CGI.
..COOK..05/19/18
ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 107
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC021-055-093-121-192340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY GREENE MISSISSIPPI
RANDOLPH
$$
KYC039-075-083-105-192340-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARLISLE FULTON GRAVES
HICKMAN
$$
MOC069-133-155-201-192340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNKLIN MISSISSIPPI PEMISCOT
SCOTT
$$
TNC005-017-023-033-039-045-053-075-077-079-095-097-113-131-167-
183-192340-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL CHESTER
CROCKETT DECATUR DYER
GIBSON HAYWOOD HENDERSON
HENRY LAKE LAUDERDALE
MADISON OBION TIPTON
WEAKLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 107
VALID 192140Z - 192240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW FLP
TO 15 WSW UNO TO 15 N UNO TO 40 NNE UNO TO 40 WSW FAM.
..COOK..05/19/18
ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 107
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC021-055-093-121-192240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY GREENE MISSISSIPPI
RANDOLPH
$$
KYC039-075-083-105-192240-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARLISLE FULTON GRAVES
HICKMAN
$$
MOC023-035-069-091-133-143-149-155-181-201-203-207-223-192240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTLER CARTER DUNKLIN
HOWELL MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID
OREGON PEMISCOT RIPLEY
SCOTT SHANNON STODDARD
WAYNE
$$
TNC005-017-023-033-039-045-053-075-077-079-095-097-113-131-167-
183-192240-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL CHESTER
CROCKETT DECATUR DYER
GIBSON HAYWOOD HENDERSON
HENRY LAKE LAUDERDALE
MADISON OBION TIPTON
WEAKLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 107
VALID 192040Z - 192140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 464
..DIAL..05/19/18
ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 107
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC021-055-093-121-192140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY GREENE MISSISSIPPI
RANDOLPH
$$
KYC039-075-083-105-192140-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARLISLE FULTON GRAVES
HICKMAN
$$
MOC023-035-065-067-069-091-133-143-149-153-155-181-201-203-207-
215-223-229-192140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTLER CARTER DENT
DOUGLAS DUNKLIN HOWELL
MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID OREGON
OZARK PEMISCOT RIPLEY
SCOTT SHANNON STODDARD
TEXAS WAYNE WRIGHT
$$
TNC033-045-053-075-095-097-113-131-167-183-192140-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CROCKETT DYER GIBSON
HAYWOOD LAKE LAUDERDALE
MADISON OBION TIPTON
WEAKLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.