Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 353
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
140 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Eastern New Mexico
A small part of southwest Texas
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 140 PM until
900 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Widely scattered supercell development is expected across
eastern New Mexico this afternoon, and storms will move generally
southeastward through late evening. Large hail will be the primary
concern, though damaging gusts will become more of a threat if
storms can congeal into a cluster, which is more probable across
northeast New Mexico this evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40
statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles east northeast
of Raton NM to 40 miles east southeast of Guadalupe Pass TX. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
32015.
...Thompson
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 353
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
140 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Eastern New Mexico
A small part of southwest Texas
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 140 PM until
900 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Widely scattered supercell development is expected across
eastern New Mexico this afternoon, and storms will move generally
southeastward through late evening. Large hail will be the primary
concern, though damaging gusts will become more of a threat if
storms can congeal into a cluster, which is more probable across
northeast New Mexico this evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40
statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles east northeast
of Raton NM to 40 miles east southeast of Guadalupe Pass TX. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
32015.
...Thompson
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 353 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 131940Z - 140300Z
AXIS..40 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
40ENE RTN/RATON NM/ - 40ESE GDP/GUADALUPE PASS TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 35NM E/W /23SSW TBE - 50WSW INK/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 32015.
LAT...LON 36930311 31610348 31610484 36930455
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 353 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #8 ON WW 353
VALID 140245Z - 140300Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW MRF
TO 15 SE GDP TO 35 N CNM TO 35 NNW HOB TO 30 N TCC TO 10 W CAO TO
20 ENE CAO.
WW 353 SHOULD ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 140300Z. THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1057
..ELLIOTT..06/14/19
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 353
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC009-015-021-025-037-041-059-140300-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CURRY EDDY HARDING
LEA QUAY ROOSEVELT
UNION
$$
TXC109-301-389-140300-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CULBERSON LOVING REEVES
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #7 ON WW 353
VALID 140130Z - 140240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW GDP TO
35 NW CNM TO 15 NNW ROW TO 55 N ROW TO 40 NE 4CR TO 40 S LVS TO
30 W TCC TO 40 WSW SPD.
..ELLIOTT..06/14/19
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 353
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC005-009-011-015-019-021-025-037-041-059-140240-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAVES CURRY DE BACA
EDDY GUADALUPE HARDING
LEA QUAY ROOSEVELT
UNION
$$
TXC109-301-389-140240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CULBERSON LOVING REEVES
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 353
VALID 140130Z - 140240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW GDP TO
35 NW CNM TO 15 NNW ROW TO 55 N ROW TO 40 NE 4CR TO 40 S LVS TO
30 W TCC TO 40 WSW SPD.
..ELLIOTT..06/14/19
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 353
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC005-009-011-015-019-021-025-037-041-059-140240-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAVES CURRY DE BACA
EDDY GUADALUPE HARDING
LEA QUAY ROOSEVELT
UNION
$$
TXC109-301-389-140240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CULBERSON LOVING REEVES
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 353
VALID 140050Z - 140140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E LVS TO
45 ENE LVS TO 40 ESE TAD.
..ELLIOTT..06/14/19
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 353
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC005-009-011-015-019-021-025-027-037-041-047-059-140140-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAVES CURRY DE BACA
EDDY GUADALUPE HARDING
LEA LINCOLN QUAY
ROOSEVELT SAN MIGUEL UNION
$$
TXC109-301-389-140140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CULBERSON LOVING REEVES
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 353
VALID 140005Z - 140140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1056
..ELLIOTT..06/14/19
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 353
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC005-007-009-011-015-019-021-025-027-033-037-041-047-059-
140140-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAVES COLFAX CURRY
DE BACA EDDY GUADALUPE
HARDING LEA LINCOLN
MORA QUAY ROOSEVELT
SAN MIGUEL UNION
$$
TXC109-301-389-140140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CULBERSON LOVING REEVES
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 353
VALID 132240Z - 132340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..ELLIOTT..06/13/19
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 353
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC005-007-009-011-015-019-021-025-027-033-037-041-047-059-
132340-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAVES COLFAX CURRY
DE BACA EDDY GUADALUPE
HARDING LEA LINCOLN
MORA QUAY ROOSEVELT
SAN MIGUEL UNION
$$
TXC109-301-389-132340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CULBERSON LOVING REEVES
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 353
VALID 132135Z - 132240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..ELLIOTT..06/13/19
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 353
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC005-007-009-011-015-019-021-025-027-033-037-041-047-059-
132240-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAVES COLFAX CURRY
DE BACA EDDY GUADALUPE
HARDING LEA LINCOLN
MORA QUAY ROOSEVELT
SAN MIGUEL UNION
$$
TXC109-301-389-132240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CULBERSON LOVING REEVES
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 353
VALID 132040Z - 132140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..06/13/19
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 353
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC005-007-009-011-015-019-021-025-027-033-037-041-047-059-
132140-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAVES COLFAX CURRY
DE BACA EDDY GUADALUPE
HARDING LEA LINCOLN
MORA QUAY ROOSEVELT
SAN MIGUEL UNION
$$
TXC109-301-389-132140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CULBERSON LOVING REEVES
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
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