Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 21
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
800 PM EST Fri Jan 31 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
South Florida
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 800 PM
until 300 AM EST.
* Primary threats include...
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A bowing complex of storms, and possibly some additional
strong/severe storms preceding it, will continue to spread
east-northeastward this evening toward the Florida Keys and other
parts of South Florida. Wind damage is the most likely risk, but a
tornado or two cannot be ruled out.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles northwest of
Key West FL to 30 miles southeast of Miami FL. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25025.
...Guyer
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 21
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
800 PM EST Fri Jan 31 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
South Florida
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 800 PM
until 300 AM EST.
* Primary threats include...
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A bowing complex of storms, and possibly some additional
strong/severe storms preceding it, will continue to spread
east-northeastward this evening toward the Florida Keys and other
parts of South Florida. Wind damage is the most likely risk, but a
tornado or two cannot be ruled out.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles northwest of
Key West FL to 30 miles southeast of Miami FL. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25025.
...Guyer
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 21 SEVERE TSTM FL CW 010100Z - 010800Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
50NW EYW/KEY WEST FL/ - 30SE MIA/MIAMI FL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM N/S /41NW EYW - 27SE MIA/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..0.5 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25025.
LAT...LON 26008233 26437994 24557994 24128233
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 21 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 21
VALID 010650Z - 010740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ESE MTH
TO 70 SSE MIA.
..KERR..02/01/20
ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 21
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
AMZ651-010740-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 21
VALID 010550Z - 010700Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE MTH
TO 65 SSE MIA. THE WATCH CAN BE CANCELLED EARLY ONCE THE
SQUALL LINE MOVES EAST OF AMZ651 AND GMZ072 DURING THE 06-07Z
PERIOD.
..SMITH..02/01/20
ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 21
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
AMZ651-GMZ072-010700-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY 20 TO 60 NM OUT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 21
VALID 010500Z - 010550Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE MTH
TO 40 S MIA TO 25 W MIA TO 20 SSW PBI.
..SMITH..02/01/20
ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 21
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC011-086-010550-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWARD MIAMI-DADE
$$
AMZ630-651-GMZ042-052-053-072-073-010550-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
BISCAYNE BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM
HAWK CHANNEL FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT TO THE REEF
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT 20 NM
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE OUT 20 NM
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY 20 TO 60 NM OUT
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE 20 TO 60 NM OUT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 21
VALID 010415Z - 010500Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE EYW TO
35 NNE MTH TO 50 SE APF TO 45 NW MIA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 71
..SMITH..02/01/20
ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 21
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC011-086-087-010500-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWARD MIAMI-DADE MONROE
$$
AMZ630-651-GMZ031-032-042-043-052-053-072-073-010500-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
BISCAYNE BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM
FLORIDA BAY INCLUDING BARNES SOUND BLACKWATER SOUND AND
BUTTONWOOD SOUND
BAYSIDE AND GULF SIDE FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE
HAWK CHANNEL FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT TO THE REEF
HAWK CHANNEL FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE OUT
TO THE REEF
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT 20 NM
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE OUT 20 NM
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY 20 TO 60 NM OUT
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE 20 TO 60 NM OUT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 21
VALID 010305Z - 010400Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW EYW
TO 45 NNE EYW TO 35 SSW APF TO 25 E APF.
..SMITH..02/01/20
ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 21
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC011-021-086-087-010400-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWARD COLLIER MIAMI-DADE
MONROE
$$
AMZ630-651-GMZ031-032-033-035-042-043-044-052-053-054-072-073-074-
075-656-657-010400-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
BISCAYNE BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM
FLORIDA BAY INCLUDING BARNES SOUND BLACKWATER SOUND AND
BUTTONWOOD SOUND
BAYSIDE AND GULF SIDE FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE
GULF WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE 20 TO 60 NM OUT
AND BEYOND 5 FATHOMS
GULF OF MEXICO FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO HALFMOON
SHOAL OUT TO 5 FATHOMS
HAWK CHANNEL FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT TO THE REEF
HAWK CHANNEL FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE OUT
TO THE REEF
HAWK CHANNEL FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO HALFMOON SHOAL
OUT TO THE REEF
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT 20 NM
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE OUT 20 NM
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO SOUTH OF
HALFMOON SHOAL OUT 20 NM
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY 20 TO 60 NM OUT
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE 20 TO 60 NM OUT
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO SOUTH OF
HALFMOON SHOAL 20 TO 60 NM OUT
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM HALFMOON SHOAL TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY
TORTUGAS 20 TO 60 NM OUT
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.