Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 51
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
845 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northwest Texas
* Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 845 AM until
100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible
SUMMARY...A supercell or two may persist east across the South
Plains of Northwest Texas. Primary threat is large hail.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west northwest
of Lubbock TX to 105 miles east of Lubbock TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27030.
...Grams
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 51 SEVERE TSTM TX 171345Z - 171800Z
AXIS..45 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
35WNW LBB/LUBBOCK TX/ - 105E LBB/LUBBOCK TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 40NM N/S /25WNW LBB - 45SSE CDS/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..50 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.
LAT...LON 34500238 34319999 33009999 33210238
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 51 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 51
VALID 171730Z - 171800Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE LBB
TO 40 E LBB TO 45 WNW CDS.
WW 51 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 171800Z IF CURRENT CONVECTIVE
TRENDS CONTINUE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 187
..NAUSLAR..03/17/20
ATTN...WFO...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 51
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC101-125-263-269-345-433-445-171800-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COTTLE DICKENS KENT
KING MOTLEY STONEWALL
TERRY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 51
VALID 171635Z - 171740Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..03/17/20
ATTN...WFO...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 51
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC101-107-125-153-169-189-219-263-269-279-303-305-345-433-445-
171740-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COTTLE CROSBY DICKENS
FLOYD GARZA HALE
HOCKLEY KENT KING
LAMB LUBBOCK LYNN
MOTLEY STONEWALL TERRY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (40%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
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