Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 76
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western New York
Extreme northeastern Ohio
Northwestern Pennsylvania
Lake Erie
Lake Ontario
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from NOON until 600
PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Scattered large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop early this afternoon from
northeastern OH into northwestern PA, and then spread quickly
northeastward into western NY. The storm environment will favor
supercells capable of producing damaging winds/large hail, and
perhaps an isolated tornado. The storms will move east of the more
favorable environment by late this afternoon/evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles northwest of
Rochester NY to 50 miles south of Franklin PA. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector
23050.
...Thompson
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 76
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western New York
Extreme northeastern Ohio
Northwestern Pennsylvania
Lake Erie
Lake Ontario
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from NOON until 600
PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Scattered large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop early this afternoon from
northeastern OH into northwestern PA, and then spread quickly
northeastward into western NY. The storm environment will favor
supercells capable of producing damaging winds/large hail, and
perhaps an isolated tornado. The storms will move east of the more
favorable environment by late this afternoon/evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles northwest of
Rochester NY to 50 miles south of Franklin PA. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector
23050.
...Thompson
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 76 SEVERE TSTM NY OH PA LE LO 291600Z - 292200Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
25NW ROC/ROCHESTER NY/ - 50S FKL/FRANKLIN PA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /38NE BUF - 19SE EWC/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23050.
LAT...LON 43377693 40657882 40658092 43377912
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 76 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 76
VALID 292025Z - 292140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S DUJ TO
20 NE BFD TO 45 NNE BFD TO 25 E ROC.
REMAINDER OF WATCH COULD BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO SCHEDULED 22Z
EXPIRATION. A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
..KERR..03/29/20
ATTN...WFO...BUF...CLE...PBZ...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 76
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC003-051-055-069-117-121-292140-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGANY LIVINGSTON MONROE
ONTARIO WAYNE WYOMING
$$
PAC023-033-047-083-105-292140-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMERON CLEARFIELD ELK
MCKEAN POTTER
$$
LOZ030-292140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 76
VALID 291925Z - 292040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE LBE TO
15 SE JHW TO 25 NW ROC.
..KERR..03/29/20
ATTN...WFO...BUF...CLE...PBZ...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 76
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC003-009-051-055-069-117-121-292040-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGANY CATTARAUGUS LIVINGSTON
MONROE ONTARIO WAYNE
WYOMING
$$
PAC023-033-047-063-065-083-105-292040-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMERON CLEARFIELD ELK
INDIANA JEFFERSON MCKEAN
POTTER
$$
LOZ030-292040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 76
VALID 291830Z - 291940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW PIT TO
15 N FKL TO 10 SE ERI.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 270.
..KERR..03/29/20
ATTN...WFO...BUF...CLE...PBZ...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 76
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC003-009-013-029-037-051-055-063-069-073-117-121-291940-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGANY CATTARAUGUS CHAUTAUQUA
ERIE GENESEE LIVINGSTON
MONROE NIAGARA ONTARIO
ORLEANS WAYNE WYOMING
$$
PAC005-007-019-023-031-033-039-047-049-053-063-065-083-105-121-
123-291940-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BEAVER BUTLER
CAMERON CLARION CLEARFIELD
CRAWFORD ELK ERIE
FOREST INDIANA JEFFERSON
MCKEAN POTTER VENANGO
WARREN
$$
LEZ020-LOZ030-291940-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 76
VALID 291825Z - 291940Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 270.
..KERR..03/29/20
ATTN...WFO...BUF...CLE...PBZ...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 76
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC003-009-013-029-037-051-055-063-069-073-117-121-291940-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGANY CATTARAUGUS CHAUTAUQUA
ERIE GENESEE LIVINGSTON
MONROE NIAGARA ONTARIO
ORLEANS WAYNE WYOMING
$$
OHC007-029-099-155-291940-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHTABULA COLUMBIANA MAHONING
TRUMBULL
$$
PAC005-007-019-023-031-033-039-047-049-053-063-065-073-083-085-
105-121-123-291940-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BEAVER BUTLER
CAMERON CLARION CLEARFIELD
CRAWFORD ELK ERIE
FOREST INDIANA JEFFERSON
LAWRENCE MCKEAN MERCER
POTTER VENANGO WARREN
$$
LEZ020-LOZ030-291940-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 76
VALID 291735Z - 291840Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..03/29/20
ATTN...WFO...BUF...CLE...PBZ...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 76
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC003-009-013-029-037-051-055-063-069-073-117-121-291840-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGANY CATTARAUGUS CHAUTAUQUA
ERIE GENESEE LIVINGSTON
MONROE NIAGARA ONTARIO
ORLEANS WAYNE WYOMING
$$
OHC007-029-099-155-291840-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHTABULA COLUMBIANA MAHONING
TRUMBULL
$$
PAC005-007-019-023-031-033-039-047-049-053-063-065-073-083-085-
105-121-123-291840-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BEAVER BUTLER
CAMERON CLARION CLEARFIELD
CRAWFORD ELK ERIE
FOREST INDIANA JEFFERSON
LAWRENCE MCKEAN MERCER
POTTER VENANGO WARREN
$$
LEZ020-LOZ030-291840-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.