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The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 81
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
355 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northeast Illinois
Western Lower Michigan
Southeast Wisconsin
Lake Michigan
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 355 PM until
900 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to rapidly develop this
afternoon along an approaching cold front and move across the watch
area. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible in the
stronger cells. An isolated tornado or two is also possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north northwest
of Traverse City MI to 65 miles southeast of Racine WI. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
28035.
...Hart
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 81 SEVERE TSTM IL MI WI LM 072055Z - 080200Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
45NNW TVC/TRAVERSE CITY MI/ - 65SE RAC/RACINE WI/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /43NNW TVC - 33NW GIJ/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28035.
LAT...LON 45328439 42088545 42088838 45328748
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 81 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 81
VALID 080140Z - 080200Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW AZO TO
10 NNW AZO TO 25 SE GRR.
WW 81 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 080200Z.
..SQUITIERI..04/08/20
ATTN...WFO...LOT...GRR...APX...MKX...GRB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 81
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC015-025-045-065-075-077-080200-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY CALHOUN EATON
INGHAM JACKSON KALAMAZOO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 81
VALID 080030Z - 080140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE JVL
TO 15 SW MKG TO 25 ESE TVC TO 30 NNE HTL.
..SQUITIERI..04/08/20
ATTN...WFO...LOT...GRR...APX...MKX...GRB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 81
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC005-015-025-035-037-045-057-065-067-073-075-077-081-107-113-
117-121-123-133-139-159-080140-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGAN BARRY CALHOUN
CLARE CLINTON EATON
GRATIOT INGHAM IONIA
ISABELLA JACKSON KALAMAZOO
KENT MECOSTA MISSAUKEE
MONTCALM MUSKEGON NEWAYGO
OSCEOLA OTTAWA VAN BUREN
$$
LMZ675-844-845-846-874-876-878-080140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI
SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 81
VALID 072335Z - 080040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W MKE TO
40 NW MKG TO 30 WNW TVC TO 45 SSE PLN.
..KERR..04/07/20
ATTN...WFO...LOT...GRR...APX...MKX...GRB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 81
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC005-009-015-019-025-035-037-045-055-057-065-067-073-075-077-
079-081-085-089-101-105-107-113-117-121-123-127-133-139-159-165-
080040-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGAN ANTRIM BARRY
BENZIE CALHOUN CLARE
CLINTON EATON GRAND TRAVERSE
GRATIOT INGHAM IONIA
ISABELLA JACKSON KALAMAZOO
KALKASKA KENT LAKE
LEELANAU MANISTEE MASON
MECOSTA MISSAUKEE MONTCALM
MUSKEGON NEWAYGO OCEANA
OSCEOLA OTTAWA VAN BUREN
WEXFORD
$$
WIC045-059-101-105-127-080040-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GREEN KENOSHA RACINE
ROCK WALWORTH
$$
LMZ323-346-645-646-673-675-844-845-846-847-848-849-872-874-876-
878-080040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI 5NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI
SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI
GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI
PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 81
VALID 072300Z - 080040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..04/07/20
ATTN...WFO...LOT...GRR...APX...MKX...GRB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 81
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC097-111-080040-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LAKE MCHENRY
$$
MIC005-009-015-019-025-035-037-045-055-057-065-067-073-075-077-
079-081-085-089-101-105-107-113-117-121-123-127-133-139-159-165-
080040-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGAN ANTRIM BARRY
BENZIE CALHOUN CLARE
CLINTON EATON GRAND TRAVERSE
GRATIOT INGHAM IONIA
ISABELLA JACKSON KALAMAZOO
KALKASKA KENT LAKE
LEELANAU MANISTEE MASON
MECOSTA MISSAUKEE MONTCALM
MUSKEGON NEWAYGO OCEANA
OSCEOLA OTTAWA VAN BUREN
WEXFORD
$$
WIC055-059-079-089-101-105-117-127-131-133-080040-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JEFFERSON KENOSHA MILWAUKEE
OZAUKEE RACINE ROCK
SHEBOYGAN WALWORTH WASHINGTON
WAUKESHA
$$
LMZ323-344-345-346-364-366-563-565-567-643-644-645-646-669-671-
673-675-740-777-844-845-846-847-848-849-868-870-872-874-876-878-
080040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI
SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM CHARLEVOIX TO POINT BETSIE MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI 5NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5NM OFFSHORE
TO MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI 5NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI 5NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI
SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI
GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI
PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (40%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.