Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 83
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
715 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast Lower Michigan
Lake Erie
* Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 715 PM
until 100 AM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...An initially elevated cluster with embedded supercell
structure will progress southeast from east-central Lower Michigan.
Additional surface-based supercells across southwest Lower Michigan
should spread into far southeast Lower Michigan later this evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35
statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north northeast
of Saginaw MI to 35 miles south of Ann Arbor MI. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 81...WW 82...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
30040.
...Grams
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 83 SEVERE TSTM MI LE 072315Z - 080500Z
AXIS..35 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
25NNE MBS/SAGINAW MI/ - 35S ARB/ANN ARBOR MI/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 30NM E/W /22NNE MBS - 34SSW DXO/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..50 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 30040.
LAT...LON 43868319 41718307 41718443 43868459
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 83 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 83
VALID 080245Z - 080500Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW JXN
TO 25 ESE DTW.
WW 83 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 080500Z.
..SQUITIERI..04/08/20
ATTN...WFO...DTX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 83
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC091-115-080500-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LENAWEE MONROE
$$
LEZ444-080500-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 83
VALID 080145Z - 080240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW LAN
TO 25 S FNT TO 15 NNW FNT TO 30 W MBS.
..SQUITIERI..04/08/20
ATTN...WFO...DTX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 83
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC017-049-087-091-093-099-111-115-125-145-147-157-161-163-
080240-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAY GENESEE LAPEER
LENAWEE LIVINGSTON MACOMB
MIDLAND MONROE OAKLAND
SAGINAW ST. CLAIR TUSCOLA
WASHTENAW WAYNE
$$
LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-080240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ST. CLAIR RIVER
DETROIT RIVER
LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION)
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 83
VALID 080030Z - 080140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SQUITIERI..04/08/20
ATTN...WFO...DTX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 83
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC017-049-087-091-093-099-111-115-125-145-147-155-157-161-163-
080140-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAY GENESEE LAPEER
LENAWEE LIVINGSTON MACOMB
MIDLAND MONROE OAKLAND
SAGINAW ST. CLAIR SHIAWASSEE
TUSCOLA WASHTENAW WAYNE
$$
LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-080140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ST. CLAIR RIVER
DETROIT RIVER
LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION)
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
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