Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 153
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
735 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Arkansas
Southern Illinois
Extreme western Kentucky
Southeastern Missouri
Extreme northwestern Mississippi
Extreme western Tennessee
* Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 735 PM
until 300 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A well-organized line of thunderstorms will move generally
southeastward across the watch area through the remainder of the
evening, before weakening tonight near or just east of the
Mississippi River. In the meantime, it should offer a dominant
severe-wind threat, with isolated hail and/or a brief tornado
possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles either side of a line from 40 miles south southwest of
Hot Springs AR to 40 miles north northeast of Carbondale IL. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 150...WW 151...WW 152...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
31045.
...Edwards
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 153
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
735 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Arkansas
Southern Illinois
Extreme western Kentucky
Southeastern Missouri
Extreme northwestern Mississippi
Extreme western Tennessee
* Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 735 PM
until 300 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A well-organized line of thunderstorms will move generally
southeastward across the watch area through the remainder of the
evening, before weakening tonight near or just east of the
Mississippi River. In the meantime, it should offer a dominant
severe-wind threat, with isolated hail and/or a brief tornado
possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles either side of a line from 40 miles south southwest of
Hot Springs AR to 40 miles north northeast of Carbondale IL. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 150...WW 151...WW 152...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
31045.
...Edwards
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 153 SEVERE TSTM AR IL KY MO MS TN 290035Z - 290800Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF LINE..
40SSW HOT/HOT SPRINGS AR/ - 40NNE MDH/CARBONDALE IL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM EITHER SIDE /43NE TXK - 62WNW PXV/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 31045.
LAT...LON 34669422 39048987 37588808 33209253
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 153 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 153
VALID 290550Z - 290640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW ELD TO
30 ENE PBF TO 5 WNW DYR TO 35 S PAH TO 25 SSE PAH.
..BROYLES..04/29/20
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 153
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-011-013-025-041-043-077-079-103-107-290640-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN
CLEVELAND DESHA DREW
LEE LINCOLN OUACHITA
PHILLIPS
$$
MSC009-027-033-071-093-107-119-135-137-143-161-290640-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON COAHOMA DESOTO
LAFAYETTE MARSHALL PANOLA
QUITMAN TALLAHATCHIE TATE
TUNICA YALOBUSHA
$$
TNC017-033-045-047-053-069-075-079-097-113-131-157-167-183-
290640-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL CROCKETT DYER
FAYETTE GIBSON HARDEMAN
HAYWOOD HENRY LAUDERDALE
MADISON OBION SHELBY
TIPTON WEAKLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 153
VALID 290435Z - 290540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW HOT
TO 25 E HOT TO 20 E LIT TO 40 SE BVX TO 15 SE JBR TO 35 ENE JBR
TO 25 ESE POF TO 10 SSW CGI TO 10 W MDH TO 5 W MVN.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 498
..DIAL..04/29/20
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 153
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-011-013-019-025-035-037-039-041-043-053-059-069-077-079-
085-093-095-103-107-109-111-117-123-147-290540-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN
CLARK CLEVELAND CRITTENDEN
CROSS DALLAS DESHA
DREW GRANT HOT SPRING
JEFFERSON LEE LINCOLN
LONOKE MISSISSIPPI MONROE
OUACHITA PHILLIPS PIKE
POINSETT PRAIRIE ST. FRANCIS
WOODRUFF
$$
ILC003-055-077-081-087-127-153-181-199-290540-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER FRANKLIN JACKSON
JEFFERSON JOHNSON MASSAC
PULASKI UNION WILLIAMSON
$$
KYC007-039-075-105-145-290540-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CARLISLE FULTON
HICKMAN MCCRACKEN
$$
MSC009-027-033-071-093-107-119-135-137-143-161-290540-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON COAHOMA DESOTO
LAFAYETTE MARSHALL PANOLA
QUITMAN TALLAHATCHIE TATE
TUNICA YALOBUSHA
$$
MOC069-133-143-155-201-290540-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNKLIN MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID
PEMISCOT SCOTT
$$
TNC017-033-045-047-053-069-075-079-095-097-113-131-157-167-183-
290540-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL CROCKETT DYER
FAYETTE GIBSON HARDEMAN
HAYWOOD HENRY LAKE
LAUDERDALE MADISON OBION
SHELBY TIPTON WEAKLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 153
VALID 290335Z - 290440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE RKR TO
15 SSE RUE TO 35 WSW BVX TO 10 W ARG TO 10 W POF TO 30 SSE FAM TO
15 ESE FAM TO 30 SSE BLV TO 5 WNW MVN.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 497
..DIAL..04/29/20
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 153
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-011-013-019-021-023-025-029-031-035-037-039-041-043-045-
051-053-055-059-063-067-069-075-077-079-085-093-095-097-103-105-
107-109-111-113-117-119-121-123-125-145-147-290440-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN
CLARK CLAY CLEBURNE
CLEVELAND CONWAY CRAIGHEAD
CRITTENDEN CROSS DALLAS
DESHA DREW FAULKNER
GARLAND GRANT GREENE
HOT SPRING INDEPENDENCE JACKSON
JEFFERSON LAWRENCE LEE
LINCOLN LONOKE MISSISSIPPI
MONROE MONTGOMERY OUACHITA
PERRY PHILLIPS PIKE
POINSETT POLK PRAIRIE
PULASKI RANDOLPH ST. FRANCIS
SALINE WHITE WOODRUFF
$$
ILC003-055-077-081-087-127-145-153-181-199-290440-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER FRANKLIN JACKSON
JEFFERSON JOHNSON MASSAC
PERRY PULASKI UNION
WILLIAMSON
$$
KYC007-039-075-105-145-290440-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CARLISLE FULTON
HICKMAN MCCRACKEN
$$
MSC033-143-290440-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DESOTO TUNICA
$$
MOC017-023-031-069-133-143-155-157-181-201-207-223-290440-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU
DUNKLIN MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID
PEMISCOT PERRY RIPLEY
SCOTT STODDARD WAYNE
$$
TNC045-095-097-131-157-167-290440-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DYER LAKE LAUDERDALE
OBION SHELBY TIPTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 153
VALID 290235Z - 290340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N RUE TO
25 E FLP TO 25 SE UNO TO 30 ENE UNO TO 30 W FAM TO 20 NW FAM TO
25 SSW BLV TO 15 WNW MVN.
..DIAL..04/29/20
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 153
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-011-013-019-021-023-025-029-031-035-037-039-041-043-045-
049-051-053-055-059-063-065-067-069-071-075-077-079-083-085-093-
095-097-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123-125-127-129-
135-137-141-145-147-149-290340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN
CLARK CLAY CLEBURNE
CLEVELAND CONWAY CRAIGHEAD
CRITTENDEN CROSS DALLAS
DESHA DREW FAULKNER
FULTON GARLAND GRANT
GREENE HOT SPRING INDEPENDENCE
IZARD JACKSON JEFFERSON
JOHNSON LAWRENCE LEE
LINCOLN LOGAN LONOKE
MISSISSIPPI MONROE MONTGOMERY
OUACHITA PERRY PHILLIPS
PIKE POINSETT POLK
POPE PRAIRIE PULASKI
RANDOLPH ST. FRANCIS SALINE
SCOTT SEARCY SHARP
STONE VAN BUREN WHITE
WOODRUFF YELL
$$
ILC003-055-077-081-087-127-145-153-181-199-290340-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER FRANKLIN JACKSON
JEFFERSON JOHNSON MASSAC
PERRY PULASKI UNION
WILLIAMSON
$$
KYC007-039-075-105-145-290340-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CARLISLE FULTON
HICKMAN MCCRACKEN
$$
MSC033-143-290340-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DESOTO TUNICA
$$
MOC017-023-031-035-069-133-143-155-157-181-201-207-223-290340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU
CARTER DUNKLIN MISSISSIPPI
NEW MADRID PEMISCOT PERRY
RIPLEY SCOTT STODDARD
WAYNE
$$
TNC045-095-097-131-157-167-290340-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DYER LAKE LAUDERDALE
OBION SHELBY TIPTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.