Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 187
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
325 PM EDT Fri May 15 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
western and central Massachusetts
southern New Hampshire
central through eastern New York
northeast Pennsylvania
southern Vermont
* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until
1000 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Storms with a few bowing segments and possible supercell
structures are expected to develop through New York and southern New
England this afternoon and early evening. Damaging wind appears
likely with a couple of tornadoes possible.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles
north and south of a line from 45 miles north northwest of Elmira NY
to 30 miles southeast of Concord NH. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 186...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 27035.
...Dial
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 187 TORNADO MA NH NY PA VT 151925Z - 160200Z
AXIS..90 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
45NNW ELM/ELMIRA NY/ - 30SE CON/CONCORD NH/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM N/S /51WSW SYR - 29SE CON/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035.
LAT...LON 44077724 44197108 41597108 41477724
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 187 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 187
VALID 160145Z - 160200Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE POU
TO 15 NNE BOS.
WW 187 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 160200Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 608
..MOORE..05/16/20
ATTN...WFO...ALY...BOX...GYX...BGM...BUF...BTV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 187
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
CTC013-015-160200-
CT
. CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
TOLLAND WINDHAM
$$
RIC007-160200-
RI
. RHODE ISLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
PROVIDENCE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 187
VALID 160115Z - 160240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S MSV TO
20 S EEN TO 45 E PSM.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 608
..MOORE..05/16/20
ATTN...WFO...ALY...BOX...GYX...BGM...BUF...BTV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 187
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
CTC003-005-013-015-160240-
CT
. CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HARTFORD LITCHFIELD TOLLAND
WINDHAM
$$
MAC009-013-017-021-025-027-160240-
MA
. MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ESSEX HAMPDEN MIDDLESEX
NORFOLK SUFFOLK WORCESTER
$$
NYC027-160240-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUTCHESS
$$
RIC007-160240-
RI
. RHODE ISLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
PROVIDENCE
$$
ANZ230-160240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ANZ230
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 187
VALID 160000Z - 160140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE AVP
TO 40 N POU TO 25 W EEN TO 30 ENE MPV.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 605
..MOORE..05/15/20
ATTN...WFO...ALY...BOX...GYX...BGM...BUF...BTV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 187
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
CTC003-005-013-015-160140-
CT
. CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HARTFORD LITCHFIELD TOLLAND
WINDHAM
$$
MAC003-009-011-013-015-017-027-160140-
MA
. MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKSHIRE ESSEX FRANKLIN
HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE MIDDLESEX
WORCESTER
$$
NHC001-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-160140-
NH
. NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BELKNAP CHESHIRE GRAFTON
HILLSBOROUGH MERRIMACK ROCKINGHAM
STRAFFORD SULLIVAN
$$
NYC021-027-111-160140-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLUMBIA DUTCHESS ULSTER
$$
VTC025-160140-
VT
. VERMONT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
WINDHAM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 187
VALID 152310Z - 160040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W ELM TO
15 N ALB TO 10 WNW MWN.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 605
..MOORE..05/15/20
ATTN...WFO...ALY...BOX...GYX...BGM...BUF...BTV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 187
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
CTC005-160040-
CT
. CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LITCHFIELD
$$
MAC003-011-013-015-017-027-160040-
MA
. MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKSHIRE FRANKLIN HAMPDEN
HAMPSHIRE MIDDLESEX WORCESTER
$$
NHC001-005-009-011-013-019-160040-
NH
. NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BELKNAP CHESHIRE GRAFTON
HILLSBOROUGH MERRIMACK SULLIVAN
$$
NYC001-021-027-039-083-111-160040-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALBANY COLUMBIA DUTCHESS
GREENE RENSSELAER ULSTER
$$
VTC003-025-027-160040-
VT
. VERMONT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNINGTON WINDHAM WINDSOR
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 187
VALID 152210Z - 152340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W ELM TO
40 WNW GFL TO 15 WSW BTV.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 603
..MOORE..05/15/20
ATTN...WFO...ALY...BOX...GYX...BGM...BUF...BTV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 187
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
CTC005-152340-
CT
. CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LITCHFIELD
$$
MAC003-011-013-015-017-027-152340-
MA
. MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKSHIRE FRANKLIN HAMPDEN
HAMPSHIRE MIDDLESEX WORCESTER
$$
NHC001-005-009-011-013-019-152340-
NH
. NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BELKNAP CHESHIRE GRAFTON
HILLSBOROUGH MERRIMACK SULLIVAN
$$
NYC001-007-017-021-025-027-035-039-057-077-083-091-093-095-111-
113-115-152340-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALBANY BROOME CHENANGO
COLUMBIA DELAWARE DUTCHESS
FULTON GREENE MONTGOMERY
OTSEGO RENSSELAER SARATOGA
SCHENECTADY SCHOHARIE ULSTER
WARREN WASHINGTON
$$
PAC115-127-152340-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
SUSQUEHANNA WAYNE
$$
VTC003-021-025-027-152340-
VT
. VERMONT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNINGTON RUTLAND WINDHAM
WINDSOR
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 187
VALID 152105Z - 152240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW ELM TO
10 ESE SYR TO 35 NE UCA TO 30 WSW SLK.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 603
..SQUITIERI..05/15/20
ATTN...WFO...ALY...BOX...GYX...BGM...BUF...BTV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 187
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MAC003-011-013-015-017-027-152240-
MA
. MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKSHIRE FRANKLIN HAMPDEN
HAMPSHIRE MIDDLESEX WORCESTER
$$
NHC001-005-009-011-013-019-152240-
NH
. NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BELKNAP CHESHIRE GRAFTON
HILLSBOROUGH MERRIMACK SULLIVAN
$$
NYC001-007-015-017-021-023-025-035-039-041-043-053-057-065-077-
083-091-093-095-097-101-107-109-113-115-152240-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALBANY BROOME CHEMUNG
CHENANGO COLUMBIA CORTLAND
DELAWARE FULTON GREENE
HAMILTON HERKIMER MADISON
MONTGOMERY ONEIDA OTSEGO
RENSSELAER SARATOGA SCHENECTADY
SCHOHARIE SCHUYLER STEUBEN
TIOGA TOMPKINS WARREN
WASHINGTON
$$
PAC015-115-127-152240-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRADFORD SUSQUEHANNA WAYNE
$$
VTC003-021-025-027-152240-
VT
. VERMONT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNINGTON RUTLAND WINDHAM
WINDSOR
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (80%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.