Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 191
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
325 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
southwest Arkansas
northwest Louisiana
southeast Oklahoma
northeast Texas
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until
900 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Low topped supercells may remain capable of producing a
few tornadoes in the Ark-La-Tex region this afternoon into early
evening.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles
east and west of a line from 35 miles north of De Queen AR to 45
miles south southwest of El Dorado AR. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean
storm motion vector 18030.
...Dial
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 191 TORNADO AR LA OK TX 162025Z - 170200Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
35N DEQ/DE QUEEN AR/ - 45SSW ELD/EL DORADO AR/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /50S FSM - 36ESE EIC/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..0.5 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 18030.
LAT...LON 34559308 32619183 32619440 34559572
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 191 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 191
VALID 170125Z - 170200Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N IER TO
15 N TXK TO 20 SSE RKR.
WW 191 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 170200Z.
..MOORE..05/17/20
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 191
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC013-019-027-039-051-057-059-061-073-097-099-103-109-113-139-
170200-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALHOUN CLARK COLUMBIA
DALLAS GARLAND HEMPSTEAD
HOT SPRING HOWARD LAFAYETTE
MONTGOMERY NEVADA OUACHITA
PIKE POLK UNION
$$
LAC027-111-170200-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
CLAIBORNE UNION
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 191
VALID 170055Z - 170140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S ELD TO
45 N GGG TO 20 S RKR.
..MOORE..05/17/20
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 191
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC013-019-027-039-051-057-059-061-073-081-091-097-099-103-109-
113-133-139-170140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALHOUN CLARK COLUMBIA
DALLAS GARLAND HEMPSTEAD
HOT SPRING HOWARD LAFAYETTE
LITTLE RIVER MILLER MONTGOMERY
NEVADA OUACHITA PIKE
POLK SEVIER UNION
$$
LAC027-111-170140-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
CLAIBORNE UNION
$$
TXC037-067-170140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CASS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 191
VALID 162335Z - 170040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E SHV TO
40 NNE SHV TO 50 NNW TYR.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 615
..MOORE..05/16/20
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 191
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC013-019-027-039-051-057-059-061-073-081-091-097-099-103-109-
113-133-139-170040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALHOUN CLARK COLUMBIA
DALLAS GARLAND HEMPSTEAD
HOT SPRING HOWARD LAFAYETTE
LITTLE RIVER MILLER MONTGOMERY
NEVADA OUACHITA PIKE
POLK SEVIER UNION
$$
LAC027-111-170040-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
CLAIBORNE UNION
$$
OKC089-170040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MCCURTAIN
$$
TXC037-067-159-343-387-449-170040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CASS FRANKLIN
MORRIS RED RIVER TITUS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 191
VALID 162235Z - 162340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W MLU TO
30 SSW TXK TO 40 SSW PRX.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 615
..MOORE..05/16/20
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 191
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC013-019-027-039-051-057-059-061-073-081-091-097-099-103-109-
113-133-139-162340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALHOUN CLARK COLUMBIA
DALLAS GARLAND HEMPSTEAD
HOT SPRING HOWARD LAFAYETTE
LITTLE RIVER MILLER MONTGOMERY
NEVADA OUACHITA PIKE
POLK SEVIER UNION
$$
LAC027-111-162340-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
CLAIBORNE UNION
$$
OKC089-162340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MCCURTAIN
$$
TXC037-067-159-343-387-449-162340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CASS FRANKLIN
MORRIS RED RIVER TITUS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 191
VALID 162130Z - 162240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MOORE..05/16/20
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 191
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC013-019-027-039-051-057-059-061-073-081-091-097-099-103-109-
113-133-139-162240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALHOUN CLARK COLUMBIA
DALLAS GARLAND HEMPSTEAD
HOT SPRING HOWARD LAFAYETTE
LITTLE RIVER MILLER MONTGOMERY
NEVADA OUACHITA PIKE
POLK SEVIER UNION
$$
LAC015-017-027-111-119-162240-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE
UNION WEBSTER
$$
OKC089-162240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MCCURTAIN
$$
TXC037-063-067-159-203-315-343-387-449-459-499-162240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
FRANKLIN HARRISON MARION
MORRIS RED RIVER TITUS
UPSHUR WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
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