Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 238
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
405 PM MDT Sun May 31 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Parts of east central and southeast Montana
Southwest North Dakota
West central and northwest South Dakota
Northeast Wyoming
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 405 PM until
1000 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is underway along and
east of a surface trough, and the storms will encounter somewhat
richer moisture to the east and should intensify some this evening.
The storm environment is supportive of a mix of organized clusters
and supercells, with the attendant threat for large hail and
damaging winds.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles east northeast
of Glendive MT to 15 miles southwest of Rapid City SD. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27025.
...Thompson
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 238
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
405 PM MDT Sun May 31 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Parts of east central and southeast Montana
Southwest North Dakota
West central and northwest South Dakota
Northeast Wyoming
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 405 PM until
1000 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is underway along and
east of a surface trough, and the storms will encounter somewhat
richer moisture to the east and should intensify some this evening.
The storm environment is supportive of a mix of organized clusters
and supercells, with the attendant threat for large hail and
damaging winds.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles east northeast
of Glendive MT to 15 miles southwest of Rapid City SD. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27025.
...Thompson
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 238 SEVERE TSTM MT ND SD WY 312205Z - 010400Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
15ENE GDV/GLENDIVE MT/ - 15SW RAP/RAPID CITY SD/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /68SSW ISN - 12WSW RAP/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27025.
LAT...LON 47210323 43890206 43890447 47210578
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 238 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 238
VALID 010340Z - 010400Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW Y22
TO 20 WSW 2WX TO 35 NNE 2WX TO 35 S DIK.
WW 238 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 010400Z.
..DIAL..06/01/20
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 238
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC001-041-010400-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS HETTINGER
$$
SDC063-105-010400-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HARDING PERKINS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 238
VALID 010235Z - 010340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW Y22
TO 30 SW 2WX TO 20 NNE BHK TO 20 SW GDV TO 30 WNW GDV.
..DIAL..06/01/20
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 238
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC021-109-010340-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DAWSON WIBAUX
$$
NDC001-007-011-033-041-087-010340-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BILLINGS BOWMAN
GOLDEN VALLEY HETTINGER SLOPE
$$
SDC063-105-010340-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HARDING PERKINS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 238
VALID 010140Z - 010240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW RAP
TO 55 NW RAP TO 40 ENE 4BQ TO 35 E MLS TO 25 NE MLS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 777
..DIAL..06/01/20
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 238
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC011-021-025-079-109-010240-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARTER DAWSON FALLON
PRAIRIE WIBAUX
$$
NDC001-007-011-033-041-087-010240-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BILLINGS BOWMAN
GOLDEN VALLEY HETTINGER SLOPE
$$
SDC019-033-063-093-103-105-010240-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTTE CUSTER HARDING
MEADE PENNINGTON PERKINS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 238
VALID 010045Z - 010140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..DIAL..06/01/20
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 238
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC011-017-021-025-075-079-109-010140-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARTER CUSTER DAWSON
FALLON POWDER RIVER PRAIRIE
WIBAUX
$$
NDC001-007-011-033-041-087-010140-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BILLINGS BOWMAN
GOLDEN VALLEY HETTINGER SLOPE
$$
SDC019-033-063-081-093-103-105-010140-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTTE CUSTER HARDING
LAWRENCE MEADE PENNINGTON
PERKINS
$$
WYC011-045-010140-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CROOK WESTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 238
VALID 312335Z - 010040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..DIAL..05/31/20
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 238
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC011-017-021-025-075-079-109-010040-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARTER CUSTER DAWSON
FALLON POWDER RIVER PRAIRIE
WIBAUX
$$
NDC001-007-011-033-041-087-010040-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BILLINGS BOWMAN
GOLDEN VALLEY HETTINGER SLOPE
$$
SDC019-033-063-081-093-103-105-010040-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTTE CUSTER HARDING
LAWRENCE MEADE PENNINGTON
PERKINS
$$
WYC011-045-010040-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CROOK WESTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
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