Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 281
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
320 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western and central North Dakota
Northern South Dakota
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 320 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Storms are expected to develop through mid/late afternoon,
initially near the Montana and western North Dakota/northwest South
Dakota border region. This will include northeastward-moving
supercells capable of large hail. A tornado cannot be entirely ruled
out. The potential for severe-caliber wind gusts may also increase
through the early/mid-evening hours as storms organize and spread
into central North Dakota/north-central South Dakota.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85
statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles northwest of
Minot ND to 45 miles south southeast of Lemmon SD. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
22025.
...Guyer
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 281
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
320 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western and central North Dakota
Northern South Dakota
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 320 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Storms are expected to develop through mid/late afternoon,
initially near the Montana and western North Dakota/northwest South
Dakota border region. This will include northeastward-moving
supercells capable of large hail. A tornado cannot be entirely ruled
out. The potential for severe-caliber wind gusts may also increase
through the early/mid-evening hours as storms organize and spread
into central North Dakota/north-central South Dakota.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85
statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles northwest of
Minot ND to 45 miles south southeast of Lemmon SD. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
22025.
...Guyer
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 281 SEVERE TSTM ND SD 142020Z - 150400Z
AXIS..85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
65NW MOT/MINOT ND/ - 45SSE Y22/LEMMON SD/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM E/W /57NW MOT - 15NNW DPR/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22025.
LAT...LON 48920042 45310007 45310357 48920416
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 281 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 281
VALID 150230Z - 150340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE MBG
TO 40 SW BIS TO 45 NNE Y22 TO 40 ESE DIK TO 15 W DIK TO 25 S SDY
AND 50 NE BIS TO 30 S N60 TO 40 WSW N60 TO 50 W N60 TO 35 ENE ISN
TO 75 NNE ISN.
..WENDT..06/15/20
ATTN...WFO...BIS...ABR...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 281
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC009-013-049-055-061-069-075-079-083-101-150340-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOTTINEAU BURKE MCHENRY
MCLEAN MOUNTRAIL PIERCE
RENVILLE ROLETTE SHERIDAN
WARD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 281
VALID 150140Z - 150240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE MBG
TO 40 SW BIS TO 45 NNE Y22 TO 40 ESE DIK TO 15 W DIK TO 25 S SDY.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 918
..WENDT..06/15/20
ATTN...WFO...BIS...ABR...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 281
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC007-009-013-015-023-025-029-049-053-055-057-059-061-065-069-
075-079-083-089-101-105-150240-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BILLINGS BOTTINEAU BURKE
BURLEIGH DIVIDE DUNN
EMMONS MCHENRY MCKENZIE
MCLEAN MERCER MORTON
MOUNTRAIL OLIVER PIERCE
RENVILLE ROLETTE SHERIDAN
STARK WARD WILLIAMS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 281
VALID 150035Z - 150140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW PHP
TO 10 SSW BHK AND 30 SSE MBG TO 5 S Y22 TO 25 N BHK.
..WENDT..06/15/20
ATTN...WFO...BIS...ABR...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 281
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC001-007-009-013-015-023-025-029-033-037-041-049-053-055-057-
059-061-065-069-075-079-083-085-087-089-101-105-150140-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BILLINGS BOTTINEAU
BURKE BURLEIGH DIVIDE
DUNN EMMONS GOLDEN VALLEY
GRANT HETTINGER MCHENRY
MCKENZIE MCLEAN MERCER
MORTON MOUNTRAIL OLIVER
PIERCE RENVILLE ROLETTE
SHERIDAN SIOUX SLOPE
STARK WARD WILLIAMS
$$
SDC021-031-150140-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMPBELL CORSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 281
VALID 142330Z - 150040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW PHP
TO 10 SSW BHK.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 917
..WENDT..06/14/20
ATTN...WFO...BIS...ABR...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 281
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC001-007-009-011-013-015-023-025-029-033-037-041-049-053-055-
057-059-061-065-069-075-079-083-085-087-089-101-105-150040-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BILLINGS BOTTINEAU
BOWMAN BURKE BURLEIGH
DIVIDE DUNN EMMONS
GOLDEN VALLEY GRANT HETTINGER
MCHENRY MCKENZIE MCLEAN
MERCER MORTON MOUNTRAIL
OLIVER PIERCE RENVILLE
ROLETTE SHERIDAN SIOUX
SLOPE STARK WARD
WILLIAMS
$$
SDC021-031-041-105-137-150040-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMPBELL CORSON DEWEY
PERKINS ZIEBACH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 281
VALID 142225Z - 142340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..WENDT..06/14/20
ATTN...WFO...BIS...ABR...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 281
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC001-007-009-011-013-015-023-025-029-033-037-041-049-053-055-
057-059-061-065-069-075-079-083-085-087-089-101-105-142340-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BILLINGS BOTTINEAU
BOWMAN BURKE BURLEIGH
DIVIDE DUNN EMMONS
GOLDEN VALLEY GRANT HETTINGER
MCHENRY MCKENZIE MCLEAN
MERCER MORTON MOUNTRAIL
OLIVER PIERCE RENVILLE
ROLETTE SHERIDAN SIOUX
SLOPE STARK WARD
WILLIAMS
$$
SDC021-031-041-063-105-137-142340-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMPBELL CORSON DEWEY
HARDING PERKINS ZIEBACH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (50%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.