Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 284
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
240 PM MDT Fri Jun 19 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast Colorado
Northeast New Mexico
* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 240 PM until
1000 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms including a few supercells are
expected to develop initially near the foothills/I-25 corridor
including the Raton Mesa vicinity through late afternoon. Large hail
should the most probably hazard. Severe-caliber wind gusts could
also occur. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out across far southeast
Colorado/far northeast New Mexico Raton Mesa vicinity.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west of
Trinidad CO to 20 miles northeast of Springfield CO. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
27025.
...Guyer
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 284 SEVERE TSTM CO NM 192040Z - 200400Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
35W TAD/TRINIDAD CO/ - 20NE SPD/SPRINGFIELD CO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM N/S /41E ALS - 46SSE LAA/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27025.
LAT...LON 38340497 38570236 36400236 36180497
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 284 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 284
VALID 200135Z - 200400Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE CAO TO
20 WSW SPD TO 25 ENE LAA.
WW 284 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 200400Z.
..SQUITIERI..06/20/20
ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 284
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-099-200400-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA PROWERS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 284
VALID 200035Z - 200140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE RTN TO
15 NW LHX TO 45 NNE LHX.
..SQUITIERI..06/20/20
ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 284
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-011-061-071-089-099-200140-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA BENT KIOWA
LAS ANIMAS OTERO PROWERS
$$
NMC059-200140-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
UNION
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 284
VALID 192340Z - 200040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE RTN
TO 20 N TAD TO 40 NNW LHX.
..SQUITIERI..06/19/20
ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 284
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-011-025-061-071-089-099-200040-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA BENT CROWLEY
KIOWA LAS ANIMAS OTERO
PROWERS
$$
NMC059-200040-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
UNION
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 284
VALID 192300Z - 200040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 940
..SQUITIERI..06/19/20
ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 284
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-011-025-061-071-089-099-200040-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA BENT CROWLEY
KIOWA LAS ANIMAS OTERO
PROWERS
$$
NMC007-059-200040-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLFAX UNION
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 284
VALID 192200Z - 192340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW RTN TO
30 NNW TAD TO 20 NE PUB.
..SQUITIERI..06/19/20
ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 284
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-011-025-061-071-089-099-192340-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA BENT CROWLEY
KIOWA LAS ANIMAS OTERO
PROWERS
$$
NMC007-059-192340-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLFAX UNION
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.