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The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 378
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
120 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western New York
Eastern Ohio
Western Pennsylvania
Northern Panhandle of West Virginia
Lake Erie
Lake Ontario
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 120 PM until
900 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon across eastern Ohio and spread into parts of western New
York and western Pennsylvania. The stronger storms will be capable
of gusty/damaging wind gusts and some hail. An isolated tornado or
two cannot be ruled out.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85
statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north northeast
of Buffalo NY to 35 miles south southwest of Wheeling WV. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25030.
...Hart
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 378 SEVERE TSTM NY OH PA WV LE LO 161720Z - 170100Z
AXIS..85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
30NNE BUF/BUFFALO NY/ - 35SSW HLG/WHEELING WV/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM E/W /25NNE BUF - 19SSW AIR/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.
LAT...LON 43327681 39707930 39708250 43328019
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 378 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 378
VALID 170020Z - 170140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE MGW
TO 20 SW DUJ TO 25 NW DUJ TO 15 NNE FKL TO 20 NE JHW TO 10 ESE
BUF TO 35 NW ROC.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1244
..LYONS..07/17/20
ATTN...WFO...BUF...CLE...PBZ...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 378
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC003-009-037-051-055-069-073-117-121-170140-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGANY CATTARAUGUS GENESEE
LIVINGSTON MONROE ONTARIO
ORLEANS WAYNE WYOMING
$$
PAC021-023-033-047-053-063-065-083-105-111-123-170140-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMBRIA CAMERON CLEARFIELD
ELK FOREST INDIANA
JEFFERSON MCKEAN POTTER
SOMERSET WARREN
$$
LOZ030-043-170140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER
HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 378
VALID 162320Z - 170040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW MGW
TO 15 NNE PIT TO 20 SSE ERI TO 30 NNE ERI TO 65 WNW BUF.
..LYONS..07/16/20
ATTN...WFO...BUF...CLE...PBZ...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 378
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC003-009-013-029-037-051-055-063-069-073-117-121-170040-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGANY CATTARAUGUS CHAUTAUQUA
ERIE GENESEE LIVINGSTON
MONROE NIAGARA ONTARIO
ORLEANS WAYNE WYOMING
$$
PAC003-005-019-021-023-031-033-047-051-053-059-063-065-083-105-
111-121-123-129-170040-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG BUTLER
CAMBRIA CAMERON CLARION
CLEARFIELD ELK FAYETTE
FOREST GREENE INDIANA
JEFFERSON MCKEAN POTTER
SOMERSET VENANGO WARREN
WESTMORELAND
$$
LEZ020-040-041-061-LOZ030-042-043-170040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER
NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH NY
HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR
RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK NY
DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO NY
RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY EXTENDING FROM 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 378
VALID 162140Z - 162240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N PKB TO
30 NW HLG TO 15 W YNG TO 40 WNW ERI.
..LYONS..07/16/20
ATTN...WFO...BUF...CLE...PBZ...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 378
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC003-009-013-029-037-051-055-063-069-073-117-121-162240-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGANY CATTARAUGUS CHAUTAUQUA
ERIE GENESEE LIVINGSTON
MONROE NIAGARA ONTARIO
ORLEANS WAYNE WYOMING
$$
OHC007-013-019-029-067-081-099-111-155-162240-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHTABULA BELMONT CARROLL
COLUMBIANA HARRISON JEFFERSON
MAHONING MONROE TRUMBULL
$$
PAC003-005-007-019-021-023-031-033-039-047-049-051-053-059-063-
065-073-083-085-105-111-121-123-125-129-162240-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG BEAVER
BUTLER CAMBRIA CAMERON
CLARION CLEARFIELD CRAWFORD
ELK ERIE FAYETTE
FOREST GREENE INDIANA
JEFFERSON LAWRENCE MCKEAN
MERCER POTTER SOMERSET
VENANGO WARREN WASHINGTON
WESTMORELAND
$$
WVC009-029-051-069-162240-
WV
. WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROOKE HANCOCK MARSHALL
OHIO
$$
LEZ020-040-041-061-148-149-168-169-LOZ030-042-043-162240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER
NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH NY
HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR
RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK NY
DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO NY
RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY EXTENDING FROM 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH
CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORELINE TO US-CANADIAN
BORDER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 378
VALID 161850Z - 161940Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MOSIER..07/16/20
ATTN...WFO...BUF...CLE...PBZ...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 378
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC003-009-013-029-037-051-055-063-069-073-117-121-161940-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGANY CATTARAUGUS CHAUTAUQUA
ERIE GENESEE LIVINGSTON
MONROE NIAGARA ONTARIO
ORLEANS WAYNE WYOMING
$$
OHC007-013-019-029-031-035-055-059-067-075-081-085-099-103-111-
119-121-133-151-153-155-157-169-161940-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHTABULA BELMONT CARROLL
COLUMBIANA COSHOCTON CUYAHOGA
GEAUGA GUERNSEY HARRISON
HOLMES JEFFERSON LAKE
MAHONING MEDINA MONROE
MUSKINGUM NOBLE PORTAGE
STARK SUMMIT TRUMBULL
TUSCARAWAS WAYNE
$$
PAC003-005-007-019-021-023-031-033-039-047-049-051-053-059-063-
065-073-083-085-105-111-121-123-125-129-161940-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG BEAVER
BUTLER CAMBRIA CAMERON
CLARION CLEARFIELD CRAWFORD
ELK ERIE FAYETTE
FOREST GREENE INDIANA
JEFFERSON LAWRENCE MCKEAN
MERCER POTTER SOMERSET
VENANGO WARREN WASHINGTON
WESTMORELAND
$$
WVC009-029-051-069-161940-
WV
. WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROOKE HANCOCK MARSHALL
OHIO
$$
LEZ020-040-041-061-146-147-148-149-166-167-168-169-LOZ030-042-043-
161940-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER
NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH NY
HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR
RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK NY
DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO NY
RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY EXTENDING FROM 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH
WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH
CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE OH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORELINE TO US-CANADIAN
BORDER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.