Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 381
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1025 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Upper Michigan
Southern Minnesota
Western and Northern Wisconsin
Lake Superior
* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 1025 PM
until 600 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 80 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A well-organized line of storms will continue to steadily
spread southeastward across the region through the late evening and
overnight. Damaging winds are likely, but a tornado or two could
also occur aside from some severe hail.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 95
statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles northeast of
Ironwood MI to 55 miles southwest of Minneapolis MN. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 380...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
29035.
...Guyer
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 381
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1025 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Upper Michigan
Southern Minnesota
Western and Northern Wisconsin
Lake Superior
* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 1025 PM
until 600 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 80 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A well-organized line of storms will continue to steadily
spread southeastward across the region through the late evening and
overnight. Damaging winds are likely, but a tornado or two could
also occur aside from some severe hail.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 95
statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles northeast of
Ironwood MI to 55 miles southwest of Minneapolis MN. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 380...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
29035.
...Guyer
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 381 SEVERE TSTM MI MN WI LS 180325Z - 181100Z
AXIS..95 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
55NE IWD/IRONWOOD MI/ - 55SW MSP/MINNEAPOLIS MN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 85NM E/W /77S YQT - 47SW MSP/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29035.
LAT...LON 47078728 44309209 44309593 47079132
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 381 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 381
VALID 181000Z - 181100Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE EAU
TO 35 NNE RHI TO 65 NNW CMX.
WW 381 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 181100Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1259
..THOMPSON..07/18/20
ATTN...WFO...MQT...MPX...DLH...ARX...GRB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 381
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
WIC019-069-073-085-119-181100-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARK LINCOLN MARATHON
ONEIDA TAYLOR
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 381
VALID 180845Z - 180940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW MKT
TO 40 S IWD TO 5 ENE IWD TO 35 SSE GNA TO 10 S GNA.
..THOMPSON..07/18/20
ATTN...WFO...MQT...MPX...DLH...ARX...GRB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 381
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC053-131-180940-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GOGEBIC ONTONAGON
$$
MNC049-079-131-180940-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GOODHUE LE SUEUR RICE
$$
WIC017-019-033-035-069-073-085-091-093-099-107-119-125-180940-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHIPPEWA CLARK DUNN
EAU CLAIRE LINCOLN MARATHON
ONEIDA PEPIN PIERCE
PRICE RUSK TAYLOR
VILAS
$$
LSZ241-242-263-180940-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
BLACK RIVER TO ONTONAGON MI
ONTONAGON TO UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI
LAKE SUPERIOR FROM SAXON HARBOR WI TO UPPER ENTRANCE TO PORTAGE
CANAL MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER INCLUDING ISLE
ROYAL NATIONAL PARK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 381
VALID 180735Z - 180840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW RWF TO
70 SW ASX TO 30 ESE BFW.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1258
..THOMPSON..07/18/20
ATTN...WFO...MQT...MPX...DLH...ARX...GRB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 381
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC053-131-180840-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GOGEBIC ONTONAGON
$$
MNC003-015-019-037-049-053-079-085-103-123-131-139-143-163-
180840-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANOKA BROWN CARVER
DAKOTA GOODHUE HENNEPIN
LE SUEUR MCLEOD NICOLLET
RAMSEY RICE SCOTT
SIBLEY WASHINGTON
$$
WIC003-005-007-017-019-033-035-051-069-073-085-091-093-095-099-
107-109-113-119-125-129-180840-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLAND BARRON BAYFIELD
CHIPPEWA CLARK DUNN
EAU CLAIRE IRON LINCOLN
MARATHON ONEIDA PEPIN
PIERCE POLK PRICE
RUSK ST. CROIX SAWYER
TAYLOR VILAS WASHBURN
$$
LSZ121-146-147-148-162-240-241-242-263-180840-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
CHEQUAMEGON BAY-BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI
PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI
OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI
LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF A LINE FROM SAXON HARBOR WI TO GRAND
PORTAGE MN BEYOND 5NM
SAXON HARBOR WI TO BLACK RIVER MI
BLACK RIVER TO ONTONAGON MI
ONTONAGON TO UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI
LAKE SUPERIOR FROM SAXON HARBOR WI TO UPPER ENTRANCE TO PORTAGE
CANAL MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER INCLUDING ISLE
ROYAL NATIONAL PARK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 381
VALID 180445Z - 180540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1257
..COOK..07/18/20
ATTN...WFO...MQT...MPX...DLH...ARX...GRB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 381
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC053-131-180540-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GOGEBIC ONTONAGON
$$
MNC003-015-019-023-025-037-049-053-073-079-085-103-123-127-129-
131-139-143-163-173-180540-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANOKA BROWN CARVER
CHIPPEWA CHISAGO DAKOTA
GOODHUE HENNEPIN LAC QUI PARLE
LE SUEUR MCLEOD NICOLLET
RAMSEY REDWOOD RENVILLE
RICE SCOTT SIBLEY
WASHINGTON YELLOW MEDICINE
$$
WIC003-005-007-013-017-019-031-033-035-051-069-073-085-091-093-
095-099-107-109-113-119-125-129-180540-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLAND BARRON BAYFIELD
BURNETT CHIPPEWA CLARK
DOUGLAS DUNN EAU CLAIRE
IRON LINCOLN MARATHON
ONEIDA PEPIN PIERCE
POLK PRICE RUSK
ST. CROIX SAWYER TAYLOR
VILAS WASHBURN
$$
LSZ121-144-145-146-147-148-162-240-241-242-263-180540-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
CHEQUAMEGON BAY-BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI
TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI
PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI
OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI
LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF A LINE FROM SAXON HARBOR WI TO GRAND
PORTAGE MN BEYOND 5NM
SAXON HARBOR WI TO BLACK RIVER MI
BLACK RIVER TO ONTONAGON MI
ONTONAGON TO UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI
LAKE SUPERIOR FROM SAXON HARBOR WI TO UPPER ENTRANCE TO PORTAGE
CANAL MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER INCLUDING ISLE
ROYAL NATIONAL PARK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (40%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
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