Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 383
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
940 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Michigan Upper Peninsula
Northern Wisconsin
Lake Michigan
Lake Superior
* Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 940 PM
until 500 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will move east across the watch area
through early Sunday morning posing a risk for damaging winds and
isolated large hail. A tornado or two will also be possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northeast of
Houghton MI to 20 miles southeast of Mosinee WI. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 382...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
27035.
...Bunting
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 383 SEVERE TSTM MI WI LM LS 190240Z - 191000Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
45NE CMX/HOUGHTON MI/ - 20SE CWA/MOSINEE WI/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /76SE YQT - 51W GRB/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035.
LAT...LON 47628651 44578816 44579060 47628909
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 383 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 383
VALID 190935Z - 191000Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW OSH
TO 20 N OSH TO 15 NNW GRB TO 40 SSE ESC.
WW 383 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 191000Z.
..DEAN..07/19/20
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...ARX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 383
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
WIC009-029-061-191000-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN DOOR KEWAUNEE
$$
LMZ522-541-542-191000-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 383
VALID 190855Z - 190940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW VOK
TO 35 NNW GRB TO 15 SW ESC TO 35 E ESC TO 55 NW PLN.
..DEAN..07/19/20
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...ARX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 383
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
WIC009-029-061-083-087-097-115-135-190940-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN DOOR KEWAUNEE
OCONTO OUTAGAMIE PORTAGE
SHAWANO WAUPACA
$$
LMZ221-248-250-521-522-541-542-190940-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
GREEN BAY NORTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND
PASSAGE
SEUL CHOIX POINT TO POINT DETOUR MI
5NM EAST OF A LINE FROM FAIRPORT MI TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 383
VALID 190735Z - 190840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE EAU
TO 25 SE MQT TO 35 WNW ANJ.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1270
..DEAN..07/19/20
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...ARX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 383
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC003-041-043-109-153-190840-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALGER DELTA DICKINSON
MENOMINEE SCHOOLCRAFT
$$
WIC009-019-029-037-041-061-067-073-075-078-083-087-097-115-135-
141-190840-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN CLARK DOOR
FLORENCE FOREST KEWAUNEE
LANGLADE MARATHON MARINETTE
MENOMINEE OCONTO OUTAGAMIE
PORTAGE SHAWANO WAUPACA
WOOD
$$
LMZ221-248-250-521-522-541-542-190840-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
GREEN BAY NORTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND
PASSAGE
SEUL CHOIX POINT TO POINT DETOUR MI
5NM EAST OF A LINE FROM FAIRPORT MI TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 383
VALID 190630Z - 190740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE EAU TO
25 NNE MQT TO 110 NE CMX.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1270
..DEAN..07/19/20
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...ARX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 383
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC003-041-043-071-109-153-190740-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALGER DELTA DICKINSON
IRON MENOMINEE SCHOOLCRAFT
$$
WIC009-019-029-037-041-061-067-069-073-075-078-083-085-087-097-
115-119-125-135-141-190740-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN CLARK DOOR
FLORENCE FOREST KEWAUNEE
LANGLADE LINCOLN MARATHON
MARINETTE MENOMINEE OCONTO
ONEIDA OUTAGAMIE PORTAGE
SHAWANO TAYLOR VILAS
WAUPACA WOOD
$$
LMZ221-248-250-521-522-541-542-LSZ249-250-266-190740-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
GREEN BAY NORTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND
PASSAGE
SEUL CHOIX POINT TO POINT DETOUR MI
5NM EAST OF A LINE FROM FAIRPORT MI TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI
MARQUETTE TO MUNISING MI
MUNISING TO GRAND MARAIS MI
LAKE SUPERIOR EAST OF A LINE FROM MANITOU ISLAND TO MARQUETTE MI
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM GRAND MARAIS MI TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
BEYOND 5NM FROM SHORE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 383
VALID 190530Z - 190640Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..DEAN..07/19/20
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...ARX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 383
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC003-013-041-043-053-061-071-083-103-109-131-153-190640-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALGER BARAGA DELTA
DICKINSON GOGEBIC HOUGHTON
IRON KEWEENAW MARQUETTE
MENOMINEE ONTONAGON SCHOOLCRAFT
$$
WIC009-019-029-037-041-061-067-069-073-075-078-083-085-087-097-
115-119-125-135-141-190640-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN CLARK DOOR
FLORENCE FOREST KEWAUNEE
LANGLADE LINCOLN MARATHON
MARINETTE MENOMINEE OCONTO
ONEIDA OUTAGAMIE PORTAGE
SHAWANO TAYLOR VILAS
WAUPACA WOOD
$$
LMZ221-248-250-521-522-541-542-LSZ240-241-242-243-244-245-246-247-
248-249-250-263-264-265-266-190640-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
GREEN BAY NORTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND
PASSAGE
SEUL CHOIX POINT TO POINT DETOUR MI
5NM EAST OF A LINE FROM FAIRPORT MI TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI
SAXON HARBOR WI TO BLACK RIVER MI
BLACK RIVER TO ONTONAGON MI
ONTONAGON TO UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI
UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL TO EAGLE RIVER MI
EAGLE RIVER TO MANITOU ISLAND MI
MANITOU ISLAND TO POINT ISABELLE MI
POINT ISABELLE TO LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI
PORTAGE LAKE TO HURON ISLAND MI TO LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE
CANAL TO HURON ISLANDS MI INCLUDING KEWEENAW AND HURON BAYS
HURON ISLANDS TO MARQUETTE MI
MARQUETTE TO MUNISING MI
MUNISING TO GRAND MARAIS MI
LAKE SUPERIOR FROM SAXON HARBOR WI TO UPPER ENTRANCE TO PORTAGE
CANAL MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER INCLUDING ISLE
ROYAL NATIONAL PARK
LAKE SUPERIOR FROM UPPER ENTRANCE TO PORTAGE CANAL TO MANITOU
ISLAND MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF LINE FROM MANITOU ISLAND TO MARQUETTE MI
BEYOND 5NM FROM SHORE
LAKE SUPERIOR EAST OF A LINE FROM MANITOU ISLAND TO MARQUETTE MI
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM GRAND MARAIS MI TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
BEYOND 5NM FROM SHORE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 383
VALID 190430Z - 190540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MARSH..07/19/20
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...ARX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 383
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC003-013-041-043-053-061-071-083-103-109-131-153-190540-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALGER BARAGA DELTA
DICKINSON GOGEBIC HOUGHTON
IRON KEWEENAW MARQUETTE
MENOMINEE ONTONAGON SCHOOLCRAFT
$$
WIC009-019-029-037-041-061-067-069-073-075-078-083-085-087-097-
115-119-125-135-141-190540-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN CLARK DOOR
FLORENCE FOREST KEWAUNEE
LANGLADE LINCOLN MARATHON
MARINETTE MENOMINEE OCONTO
ONEIDA OUTAGAMIE PORTAGE
SHAWANO TAYLOR VILAS
WAUPACA WOOD
$$
LMZ221-248-250-521-522-541-542-LSZ240-241-242-243-244-245-246-247-
248-249-250-263-264-265-266-190540-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
GREEN BAY NORTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND
PASSAGE
SEUL CHOIX POINT TO POINT DETOUR MI
5NM EAST OF A LINE FROM FAIRPORT MI TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI
SAXON HARBOR WI TO BLACK RIVER MI
BLACK RIVER TO ONTONAGON MI
ONTONAGON TO UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI
UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL TO EAGLE RIVER MI
EAGLE RIVER TO MANITOU ISLAND MI
MANITOU ISLAND TO POINT ISABELLE MI
POINT ISABELLE TO LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI
PORTAGE LAKE TO HURON ISLAND MI TO LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE
CANAL TO HURON ISLANDS MI INCLUDING KEWEENAW AND HURON BAYS
HURON ISLANDS TO MARQUETTE MI
MARQUETTE TO MUNISING MI
MUNISING TO GRAND MARAIS MI
LAKE SUPERIOR FROM SAXON HARBOR WI TO UPPER ENTRANCE TO PORTAGE
CANAL MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER INCLUDING ISLE
ROYAL NATIONAL PARK
LAKE SUPERIOR FROM UPPER ENTRANCE TO PORTAGE CANAL TO MANITOU
ISLAND MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF LINE FROM MANITOU ISLAND TO MARQUETTE MI
BEYOND 5NM FROM SHORE
LAKE SUPERIOR EAST OF A LINE FROM MANITOU ISLAND TO MARQUETTE MI
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM GRAND MARAIS MI TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
BEYOND 5NM FROM SHORE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.