Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 407
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
120 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Extreme southeast Arkansas
northern Louisiana
central and northern Mississippi
* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 120 PM until
800 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will develop and move east within the
watch area this afternoon through early evening. Damaging winds
will be the primary threat, and a tornado or two will also be
possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles west southwest
of Monroe LA to 50 miles east southeast of Greenwood MS. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
25025.
...Bunting
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 407
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
120 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Extreme southeast Arkansas
northern Louisiana
central and northern Mississippi
* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 120 PM until
800 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will develop and move east within the
watch area this afternoon through early evening. Damaging winds
will be the primary threat, and a tornado or two will also be
possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles west southwest
of Monroe LA to 50 miles east southeast of Greenwood MS. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
25025.
...Bunting
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 407 SEVERE TSTM AR LA MS 311820Z - 010100Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
60WSW MLU/MONROE LA/ - 50ESE GWO/GREENWOOD MS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /52WSW MLU - 41WSW IGB/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25025.
LAT...LON 32989298 34028928 32418928 31399298
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 407 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 407
VALID 010010Z - 010140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE IER TO
35 ENE HEZ TO 30 SSW UOX.
..BROYLES..08/01/20
ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 407
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC029-010140-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
CONCORDIA
$$
MSC001-007-013-015-019-025-029-043-049-051-063-071-079-087-089-
097-103-105-121-123-127-129-155-159-161-163-010140-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ATTALA CALHOUN
CARROLL CHOCTAW CLAY
COPIAH GRENADA HINDS
HOLMES JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE
LEAKE LOWNDES MADISON
MONTGOMERY NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA
RANKIN SCOTT SIMPSON
SMITH WEBSTER WINSTON
YALOBUSHA YAZOO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 407
VALID 312155Z - 312240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SSW IER TO
10 SSE MLU TO 30 ENE MLU TO 45 SSW GLH TO 40 SSE GLH TO 25 S GWO
TO 5 ESE GWO TO 40 SW UOX TO 30 SSW MEM.
..WENDT..07/31/20
ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 407
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC021-025-029-041-043-059-065-069-083-107-312240-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
CALDWELL CATAHOULA CONCORDIA
FRANKLIN GRANT LA SALLE
MADISON NATCHITOCHES RICHLAND
TENSAS
$$
MSC001-007-013-015-019-021-025-029-043-049-051-055-063-071-079-
087-089-097-103-105-107-121-123-125-127-129-149-155-159-161-163-
312240-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ATTALA CALHOUN
CARROLL CHOCTAW CLAIBORNE
CLAY COPIAH GRENADA
HINDS HOLMES ISSAQUENA
JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LEAKE
LOWNDES MADISON MONTGOMERY
NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA PANOLA
RANKIN SCOTT SHARKEY
SIMPSON SMITH WARREN
WEBSTER WINSTON YALOBUSHA
YAZOO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 407
VALID 312155Z - 312240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 WSW IER TO
15 S MLU TO 50 ENE MLU TO 25 SSE GLH TO 35 NW GWO.
..BROYLES..07/31/20
ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 407
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC021-025-029-041-043-059-065-069-083-107-312240-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
CALDWELL CATAHOULA CONCORDIA
FRANKLIN GRANT LA SALLE
MADISON NATCHITOCHES RICHLAND
TENSAS
$$
MSC001-007-013-015-019-021-025-029-043-049-051-055-063-071-079-
087-089-097-103-105-107-121-123-125-127-129-135-149-155-159-161-
163-312240-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ATTALA CALHOUN
CARROLL CHOCTAW CLAIBORNE
CLAY COPIAH GRENADA
HINDS HOLMES ISSAQUENA
JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LEAKE
LOWNDES MADISON MONTGOMERY
NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA PANOLA
RANKIN SCOTT SHARKEY
SIMPSON SMITH TALLAHATCHIE
WARREN WEBSTER WINSTON
YALOBUSHA YAZOO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 407
VALID 312035Z - 312140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW IER
TO 25 W MLU TO 15 NW MLU TO 40 NE MLU TO 45 SSW GLH TO 35 S GLH
TO 15 SSE GLH TO 15 NNE GLH TO 45 N GLH.
..KARSTENS..07/31/20
ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 407
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC013-021-025-029-035-041-043-049-059-065-067-069-073-083-107-
123-127-312140-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE CALDWELL CATAHOULA
CONCORDIA EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN
GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE
MADISON MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES
OUACHITA RICHLAND TENSAS
WEST CARROLL WINN
$$
MSC001-007-011-013-015-019-021-027-029-043-049-051-053-055-063-
071-079-083-089-097-107-119-121-123-125-127-129-133-135-149-151-
155-161-163-312140-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ATTALA BOLIVAR
CALHOUN CARROLL CHOCTAW
CLAIBORNE COAHOMA COPIAH
GRENADA HINDS HOLMES
HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA JEFFERSON
LAFAYETTE LEAKE LEFLORE
MADISON MONTGOMERY PANOLA
QUITMAN RANKIN SCOTT
SHARKEY SIMPSON SMITH
SUNFLOWER TALLAHATCHIE WARREN
WASHINGTON WEBSTER YALOBUSHA
YAZOO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 407
VALID 312000Z - 312140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E SHV TO
30 WNW MLU TO 25 NNE MLU TO 40 SSE LLQ TO 15 WNW GLH.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1364
..KARSTENS..07/31/20
ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 407
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC003-017-312140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY CHICOT
$$
LAC013-021-025-029-035-041-043-049-059-061-065-067-069-073-083-
107-111-123-127-312140-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE CALDWELL CATAHOULA
CONCORDIA EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN
GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE
LINCOLN MADISON MOREHOUSE
NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RICHLAND
TENSAS UNION WEST CARROLL
WINN
$$
MSC001-007-011-013-015-019-021-027-029-043-049-051-053-055-063-
071-079-083-089-097-107-119-121-123-125-127-129-133-135-149-151-
155-161-163-312140-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ATTALA BOLIVAR
CALHOUN CARROLL CHOCTAW
CLAIBORNE COAHOMA COPIAH
GRENADA HINDS HOLMES
HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA JEFFERSON
LAFAYETTE LEAKE LEFLORE
MADISON MONTGOMERY PANOLA
QUITMAN RANKIN SCOTT
SHARKEY SIMPSON SMITH
SUNFLOWER TALLAHATCHIE WARREN
WASHINGTON WEBSTER YALOBUSHA
YAZOO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
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