Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 408
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
235 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Eastern New Mexico
* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 235 PM until
1000 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms will move generally south
across the watch area through this evening with a risk for large
hail and damaging wind gusts.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles north of Raton
NM to 25 miles southwest of Carlsbad NM. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 407...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
35025.
...Bunting
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 408 SEVERE TSTM NM 312035Z - 010400Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
10N RTN/RATON NM/ - 25SW CNM/CARLSBAD NM/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /29NE CIM - 69W INK/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 35025.
LAT...LON 36860314 32070329 32070585 36860586
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 408 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 408
VALID 010235Z - 010340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE ABQ
TO 10 E LVS TO 50 SSE RTN TO 25 S CAO TO 15 SE CVS TO 35 SSE CVS
TO 15 NE ROW TO 25 W ROW TO 40 SSE SRR TO 40 WNW GDP.
..WENDT..08/01/20
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...EPZ...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 408
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC005-009-011-019-021-027-035-037-041-047-057-010340-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAVES CURRY DE BACA
GUADALUPE HARDING LINCOLN
OTERO QUAY ROOSEVELT
SAN MIGUEL TORRANCE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 408
VALID 010130Z - 010240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..WENDT..08/01/20
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...EPZ...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 408
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC005-007-009-011-015-019-021-025-027-033-035-037-041-047-049-
055-057-059-010240-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAVES COLFAX CURRY
DE BACA EDDY GUADALUPE
HARDING LEA LINCOLN
MORA OTERO QUAY
ROOSEVELT SAN MIGUEL SANTA FE
TAOS TORRANCE UNION
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 408
VALID 312350Z - 010040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1370
..WENDT..07/31/20
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...EPZ...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 408
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC005-007-009-011-015-019-021-025-027-033-035-037-041-047-049-
055-057-059-010040-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAVES COLFAX CURRY
DE BACA EDDY GUADALUPE
HARDING LEA LINCOLN
MORA OTERO QUAY
ROOSEVELT SAN MIGUEL SANTA FE
TAOS TORRANCE UNION
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 408
VALID 312155Z - 312240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..07/31/20
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...EPZ...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 408
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC005-007-009-011-015-019-021-025-027-033-035-037-041-047-049-
055-057-059-312240-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAVES COLFAX CURRY
DE BACA EDDY GUADALUPE
HARDING LEA LINCOLN
MORA OTERO QUAY
ROOSEVELT SAN MIGUEL SANTA FE
TAOS TORRANCE UNION
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.